Not Buying

Not only am I not buying anything, I am not looking for ideas either. As my 35th birthday approaches, my risk appetite is not what it used to be. Back in the old days, I’d throw 8 balls at people while buying shares of LNKD with reckless abandon, at the fucking opening tick. Fast forward, I am here talking to you midgets with half of my assets in cash.

Crack spreads are lifting today, which means refiners should trade inverse to their profit margins. That makes lots of sense. It’s like a company announcing they sold the company for $35 per share and the stock trades to $20 on the news. I am not mad at the stock, for it did nothing to me. It’s just interesting to see how people respond to rational news. We are living through very irrational times.

By the way, QPSA is gapping higher off the LNKD fuck fest.

Valuations mean nothing when it comes to the science of “the $100 roll.” For those of you who do not know, this is in reference to the infallible art of buying a stock after it breaks the $100 plane for quick, cold, hard cash.

As you know, LNKD hit $120 within minutes of breaking $100.

Frothy.

I don’t know how or why it happened, but it did. It reminds me of the horrific job Goldman did with Thestreet.com back in the dot bomb days, gunning the shares to levels that could not be sustained. I am talking about the IPO debut of LinkedIn, ticker LNKD, up 95% from pricing that was already 30% above last week’s price. This is, without a doubt, unsustainable. And, to top that off, it will burn a lot of people buying in the after market. I do not know when LNKD will crash or how, only that it is inevitable.

At 525 times earnings, LNKD is trading with a market cap equal to Smuckers, Chipotle and Level 3 (the defense contractor).

Fuck it, I am buying more ZSL.

NOTE: Morgan was lead underwriter for LNKD.

Well it looks like the rally will continue this morning. I invite you to understand how this all works, using nothing more than a ruler, protractor and charts. Without a doubt, your charts are as good as Mexican citizenship. Computers tell robots what to buy and sell. People, for the most part, have ceded control of the stock market to titanium overlords.

Apparently the world is going to end on 5/21, which is interesting in the sense that I am busy that day. I must insist the apocalypse wait until after my event. On a side note, there was some fucked up floods in my area yesterday, due to excessive rain. At one point my car was in water up to the top of the wheels. I made it out just fine, but now my horn sounds like something I once heard at a circus. Are you familiar with the clown cars at the circus? Yeah, my Lexus now sounds like that—meep, meep. Very nice.

The bathroom was completed yesterday, but the contractor left a few leaky pipes under my vanity. He is, without a doubt, a classless act.

With regards to this market: let me drink my coffee first before figuring out my daily plan, fuck face. I have many things to do and a variety of tasks to complete this morning, which entails cutting a check to my son’s private school for 30k—a monstrosity of grandiosity.

It’s official. The PPT aka my time machine is nailing overbought/oversold ranges like Lenny Dykstra nails stupid. Since QE2, things have been a little abnormal in the market. However, as of late, traditional correlations are working again, effectively strengthening the wizardry of The PPT. Nevertheless, I am content being half in, due to my desire to wait things out. It’s important to remember there isn’t a reason  to rush trades. I have a very concentrated position in the refiners and silver now, it’s as if I was 120% long, thanks to their asinine volatility.

Believe me, I am not complaining. But since when has SILVER of all sectors been leadership? The daily percentage moves of these stocks are astounding. I fear the volatility of the precious will assassinate the good Senator one day. He must drink a lot of Pappy to soothe his nerves.

If I was buying today, without a doubt, I’d add to refiners, mainly WNR, CVI, ALJ and HOC.

UPDATE: PPT sub has some insight into SHOMP

I added to my EXK position.

Despite today’s “risk on” trade, I still like my TLT position. I am pleased to see my WNR/AG/EXK positions go up, even at the expense of my ZSL. However, I cannot get motivated whilst the head of the IMF is sharing a cell with a purse snatcher.

In all seriousness, I’d prefer not to discuss European debt or American politics. Let’s just see things for what they are: commodity related stocks, as well as the underlying commodities, have been poleaxed. You don’t “v-shape” higher, following sharp declines. I am predicting a slow/tedious tape from now until September.

Position accordingly.

So the IMF Chief is holed up at Rikers Island with vagrant crack addicts and it’s business as usual? Ha! The man in charge of the global money supply is hanging out with the blood gang and no one is suspicious of these egregious circumstances?

Let me be the first to tell you, something is afoot. Every since my bathroom got sucked into a sinkhole, the market has been going lower. Today, we were putting the finishing touches on my new lavish bathroom, only waiting for a shipment from California (my vanity) to complete the room. Fed Ex Freight arrived around 10am and delivered what was supposed to be a glorious vanity, with all of the trimmings one would expect from purchasing bathroom items from a first class vendor. Upon opening the crate I was dismayed to find the marble counter top to be in fucking pieces, practically ground into dust, mocking the very fabric of my existence. I ordered the Fed Ex hack to “take this back to California.” And now the completion of my bathroom hangs in the balance, as I am looking at a delay of at least 2 weeks.

I am cursed by demons; I realize that now. I know the only thing you cock suckers care about is the status of my WNR. But then again, you’re all degenerate deviants, unable to think, let alone manage financial risk.

In case you haven’t noticed, the market is weak. While it’s true, I have been advocating ownership of refiners. It’s also true that I’ve been incredibly cautious, holding more than half of my liquid assets in cash and treasuries. If you are unable to purchase more than one stock at a time or hold cash for periods longer than 2 hours, you should leave this site now, else risk inevitability: rapid mustache removal by fist. I would like to see my silver stocks trade higher. However, the silver metal is plagued by demons too. Therefore, I will hold onto ZSL for the intermediate term.

I am holding my refiners, unaffected by the recent dip. Do you know why I am able to hold stocks when they are down? BECAUSE I AM A FUCKING MAN, that’s why.

Into the bell, I am loading the fuck up on brass knuckles and sarin gas. Fuck with me and see what happens to you.

Stocks are being dismantled and tossed into flaming barrels of garbage. Luckily I predicted such a downfall and find myself with over 50% cash and oodles of ZSL and TLT. However, I’m still getting crucified on existing longs like WNR. There is no moral to the story or rational as to why we are selling off. It’s just happening—accept it.

My guess, the rubber band is coiled back, setting up for a reflex rally. If you are short, you might want to reduce that exposure. If you have cash reserves, now is a good time to nibble; but don’t bite. There is always a chance we get lit the fuck up, amidst horrendous news releases and downside surprises. Know the risks and don’t bitch about losses.

I will have you know, “The Fly” is taking his losses like a man. For lack of a better phrase, my cock has been cut off and gobbled by deformed midgets, clad in burlap underwear. I don’t like to see my longs lose value. However, I find solace in knowing my exposure is just 25% of what it was a week ago. My timing could not have been better in that regard. Nevertheless, prepare for a reflex rally, most likely scheduled for tomorrow afternoon.

I am busy this morning. Get protection.