iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,010 Blog Posts

I’m Joining the Tea Party

Not the psychopath political one, but the stock.

I’ve been recommending purchase of it since $20, yet haven’t bought a share for myself. I was going through personal strife, whereby Italian bonds yields infected my brain with visions of dust.

Buying a high end, mall based, retail chain is risky, especially in its infancy. Without a doubt, the high end retailers, COH, WSM, AAPL etc, is where the money is flowing these days, as the 1% continues to denigrate the pathetic, hapless, lives of the 99%. In all seriousness, buying TEA here may lead to a swift decapitation because the stock is gaudily valued.

At 43x 2012 EPS, the stock could easily lose 50%, similar to the pinless hand grenade action in Herb Greenberg’s taste test fav SODA. Nevertheless, all early stage growth companies trade in this manner (rich premium) until they lose credibility. Right now, TEA is being given the benefit of the doubt, despite trading below its IPO price.

Here are the hard facts.

The company opened 18 new stores in the second quarter and intend to open a total of 50 in 2011. By the end of 2011, the company should have about 200 stores, a very small footprint by any standard.

They’ve partnered with Alshaya to open retail stores throughout the middle east.

To date, they have zero stores in China. It is estimated that more than 70% of Chinese favor tea over coffee, making it a prime expansion target for TEA.

Approximately 55% of their revenue derives from the sale of loose tea, while 35% comes from merchandise.

Their same store sales are increasing at a 9% clip, buoyed by a robust e-commerce platform.

Annual sales will be in the ballpark of $160 mill, a 38% increase over last year. Net income will be around $16 mill or 0.43, an increase of 78% over last year.

Here’s the kicker.

Shorts are all over this stock, just like a variety of high growth retail. People simply do not believe in the model, considering the economic vitality of America. Where I believe they are wrong, and will get bludgeoned, is the wide array of expansion possibilities for TEA. This country is ripe for TEA to expand. For more than two decades, SBUX and copy cats have flooded every city with their asshole cafes. The time has come for a change of flavour, if I might be so bold.

Aside from the international possibilities, TEA could easily KCUP their product or even develop their own machine. That’s not the reason why you buy the stock, however. Right now, just 7 million shares lie in the float. On any upside news, this stock will flame higher, fueled by the tinder that is represented in the 40% short position.

The company has $5 million in debt and total liquidity of $35 million.

It’s hard to assign a price target to TEA because it’s so young. Clearly, they can expand in the US by at least another 500 stores and start to rollout TEA cafes, similar to SBUX–if they so choose. In my opinion, the big opportunity is in China. Like GMCR three years ago, there is tremendous upside to a story like this; but you have to be patient when buying the stock. Dollar cost averaging every quarter makes sense, unless the company is proven to be incompetent.

At a minimum, I think the stock can hit $50 by the end of 2012, based on the current trends.

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127 comments

  1. No One

    You teabagger

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  2. The Pirate Trader
    The Pirate Trader

    I began researching the company as soon as you drew my attention to it. The numbers are fantastic and I love the idea of China growth and the slower pace of tea culture pushing aside the SBUX culture.

    The only problem I have with them is that they are currently only in North America with an emphasis in the United States. And we have a problem with Tea that goes back to our very founding.

    Culture is something I enjoy studying, it’s a subject that fascinates me. Some of the ideas that we see and think, “Well, that’s obvious” only come to us because it’s ingrained in us because of our culture. That’s where coffee came in. Tea was a British thing. We wanted no part of it. When we left the British empire we put aside the British ways and embraced a new way of living. The British added an accent so seperate themselves from us. To this day in America we drink coffee. In Britain, they drink tea. Coffee isn’t popular because of starbucks, coffee is popular because it’s not British. Starbucks filled this niche. It’s going to take a lot of work to bring our culture to enjoy Tea.

    This is why I like the TEA model so much. They are not just retailers. They are educators. They teach about Tea and why someone should want it. They are not salesmen for their own brand of tea, they understand that they need to be salesmen of Tea in general and the Tea culture.

    tl;dr: Big fan of the company, they just have a lot of work ahead of them shifting our fast paced American culture.

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    • La Fayette

      that is really stupid…you need to go to marketing elementary…

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      • henhao!

        No it’s not…

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        • Jakegint

          Here’s the major problem.

          Tea tastes like shit, and it’s not easy to make like cawfee. Even w. the teabags its sucks, and these new boutiques are pitching messy leaves, etc.

          As a normal, red-blooded American male (granting that lots of chicks dig tea), I’m guessing the great tea trend will be met with a collective “fuck that.”

          ________

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  3. looking for the next big thing
    looking for the next big thing

    nice idea. but the beverage trade is old. hans bein the classic example. wish it was bubble gum with some synthetic speed in it or something. theres got a be a new wallstreet momo trade comin.

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  4. Vegastrader

    First thing coming to my mind. Are we going to teach China to drink Tea? The usage of tea as a beverage was first recorded in China, with the earliest records of tea consumption with records dating back to the 10th century BC. It was already a common drink during Qin Dynasty (around 200 BC) and became widely popular during Tang Dynasty, when it was spread to Korea and Japan.

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    • Blind Read Ant

      TEA’s been around LV’s mall for at least 5 years.

      Good to see they’re still operational.

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    • The Hammer

      I agree, Vegas. I was in Western China this summer, and believe me, they have plenty of their own specialty tea stores and shops with much more knowledgeable consumers than we can imagine. They take their tea seriously there, and they don’t need the help of a North American mall store to sell it to them.

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  5. looking for the next big thing
    looking for the next big thing

    the coffee drinkers i know. mostly women and children. wouldnt switch to tea if you threatened to kill them. the china angle is the key.

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    • domtex

      Americans will never pay $ for a good tea, except the fringe. I will stick to beer, Jack and coffee..

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  6. Frog Playing a Colorful Accordion
    Frog Playing a Colorful Accordion

    Question for Fly, or anyone who knows this. I see that GSVC is going to present its “financial results” in November. What do these consist of? I thought it was like a mutual fund of different companies.

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    • Luv2Gambool

      GSVC invests in social network and internet IPO’s on the secondary market. I’m not sure what they MUST report cause I’m not sure about the disclosure rules for closed end funds, but just like any other company, they need to report new purchases, value of current assets, and profits/losses form any sales of assets.

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  7. TraderCaddy

    Sounds like another ADY (Chinese milk),MVIS,etc.
    If this is for your personal account (no idea about your managed account) there is no way you hold this until the end of 2012.
    You are a trader not a Peter Lynch story investor.

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  8. coin

    shop seems to be empty

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    • Fly's Empty brain
      Fly's Empty brain

      Lol, Fly’s brain is also empty. He is pumping TEA so much that he want to make up for VXX’s losses. Sign of Bankrupty ahead for Fly. Lol

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      • JTU

        Prediction: Banned!

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      • its saturday you faggot
        its saturday you faggot

        dont disturb the weekend with a pathetic attempt to get banned. douche bag.

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      • its saturday you faggot
        its saturday you faggot

        although a total blackout full ban. would crush your small brain and leave you to kiddie porn. faggot.

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      • The Pirate Trader
        The Pirate Trader

        He’s saying that it’ll probably trade down 50%, that’s hardly a pump. And honestly, I’m glad he brought the company to my attention. It’s a good company, just overvalued right now, but I’ll keep it on my radar.

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  9. Luv2Gambool

    I’ve owned TEA for two weeks and got the idea off the Fly’s PPT screen. I sold half my position on Thursday cause it ramped up so much. I’m sold on the idea, but I’m skeptical that the Chinese will be the biggest avenue of growth. I’m only assuming this, but I bet there is some sort of pride in where you buy your tea locally in China. After all, they’ve been on the tea tip for thousands of years already, and I figure there’s is already a culture built around it, like coffee in France. I don’t know one french person that would be caught dead in a Starbucks. Again, this is all just an assumption, and I don’t want to discount the idea that the Chinese want to be more “western”, as is evident by the fact that eating up LVMH and Apple products like mad. Just food for thought…..

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    • Blind Read Ant

      Maybe Hershey too, as France was the 1st to develop that market (note, I didn’t say discover or make).

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    • ruggyup

      Don’t qualify your opinions with “just for…” You have some good observations, intuition is a valuable tool. The charts may make us both embarrassed.

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  10. east of java

    tea is for sick people.
    we love Dunkin

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  11. Half Blood Pope

    Love COH. It is the middle class Gucci. Every mom at Rx has Coach purse.

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    • flyaway18

      I was not impressed with the Coach store at Boston’s Quincy Market. I saw a small bag I liked and it went for $128, but I was heading to Florida in a few days and I di not want to spend my money right then. Then, when I visited the Coach Outlet store at a big outdoor mall in Ft. Myers, Fla., they did not carry the bag I wanted and had even less inventory. My brother, who is 47 and married with 3 small kids, looked at a leather wallet priced at $147 in the outlet store and laughed as he put it back. However, Fossil’s outlet storein Ft. Myers was rocking and even my brother liked the look and price of the men’s watches. Fossil is more dynamic in terms of style and panache compared to Coach.
      As for tea, most people in Upstate New York get their tea from Wegman’s gourmet section. That’s where the middle class and 1-percenters like to shop – Weggies – unless there’s a Whole Foods or Trader Joe’s around.

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      • Jakegint

        When is Trader Joe’s going to go public? That place was el Swampo when they opened up in the Lou this weekend.

        Some rubes even pitched tents so they could be the first ones in.

        The definition of “Get a Life” takes on a whole new dimension.

        ___________

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        • Chango

          Different segment, but I’m waiting for Keen to go IPO. Don’t think it’s even close but great shoes.

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      • mahk bert

        flyaway18, yes Wegmans has a terrific gourmet section, cheese, beers and a great gourmet coffee section too. It is a nice place to meet a friend, relax and have a speciality cup of coffee without gourmet prices for sure>

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  12. noodle

    so this is what you were thinking when saying coffee is for socialists a week or so back.

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  13. Mr. Cain Thaler

    Woah, I love that place. Didn’t realize it was publicly traded.

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  14. buy high sell low
    buy high sell low

    concratulations for buying high to sell low.

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    • Alf Wannabe

      You could avoid spelling mistakes by using spellcheck whenever you post something. As an example in regards to your above comments, you think you are saying something that makes you sound smart , it actually makes you look stupid.

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  15. Yabollox

    I don’t think retail is gonna lead us out of this recession. And it’s not going to be housing. I’m thinking this time it’s gonna be autos…. the signs are there. Sales are jumping, inventory for used cars is low and prices going up. The “cash for clunkers” program had an effect. It cleaned out a lot of inventory.

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  16. Colonel von Ryan

    Whomever brands and opens up Asshole Cafe’s all across America’s blue states will make a mint. Model them after San Fransisco bath houses…

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  17. flyaway18

    Human Centipede posted an interesting video on a young guy’s experience at Teavana. I then clicked on a video made by a college student from Texas, who is an afficionado on premuim tea. This red-headed young man provides a 12-minute description of the tea selection at Teavana and his own experiences with the salespeople there. It was very good and he only swore once and that was by accident.

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  18. flyaway18

    That’s two comments awaiting moderation now.

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  19. Ted

    Why would the chinese go to a store like this and buy overpriced tea? The only do that to buy luxury western good like Coach handbags or effeminate Ralph Lipshitz ties, not something they know more about than provincial obnoxious Americans. It’s like Germans buying chinese cars. This crap won’t sell in India either, since they know their chais much better than any American. Buy this if you think the American story is good, not the Chinese one.

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    • The Fly

      you know nothing about Hong Kong

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      • Berserker

        HK, Singapore, and various high end malls and airport malls might be feasible – but they’re very expensive locations. As an ex Taipei’er and HK’er I’d discount TEA’s prospects in all these locations (at best they’d be cash flow neutral). As to mainland… no hope.

        TEA might still be a great pick, but not because of any eastern promise. If that’s part of their “story”, then I’d buy the stock until such time as they execute.

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      • Ted

        HK? you mean the place that has 7million people? Whoop dee fucking dee. Plus, no way even those materilistic HK’ers pay up for stuff they know all too well.

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  20. Fuck you

    fuck you and your stupid blog.

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  21. flyaway18

    Russians drink a lot of tea too.

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  22. alf44

    … tea ?

    … tea ? Really ???

    —–

    “Mushroom Tea” … I could see !!!

    But … TEA ???

    .

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    • Heaterman

      They mix it with vodka.

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    • alf44

      … NOT ME !!!

      .

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      • alf44

        … that was meant to be a complete poem … but, “heaterman” F’d it up !

        DRATS !!!

        .

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        • Heaterman

          If you would speak in complete sentences like a normal person …..none of this would have happened and I wouldn’t even have had opportunity to F you up..
          Think about it..

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          • alf44

            touché touché …
            I hear what you say …
            I should’ve completed without a delay !

            But, I saw after reading …
            An ending was needed …
            So I gave it some thought and believed I’d succeeded …
            I returned very quickly with the solution …
            But, not soon enough to avoid the pollution !

            .

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          • noodle

            lol this dude is kinda high

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  23. Bill

    anything’s possible with a huge short position but the big difference between SBUX and TEA is that coffee has a ton of caffeine in it (up to 200mg/8oz) while tea has up to 1/3 of that, best case. Caffeine is addictive and a natural anti-depressant and SBUX ups the caffeine content so follow the logic. Coffee sells because of the caffeine content. Tea, in my opinion, won’t sell the same way. It’s like someone saying a new cigarette company that makes cigs with 1/2 the nicotine content will do well. Think again. QED

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  24. Heaterman

    Fly
    Here’s your occupy (OWS) guy. Do some research on his organization. Pretty interesting weekend reading.

    http://www.owsexposed.com/2011/10/29/meet-kalle-lasn-the-man-behind-the-occupier-movement/

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  25. Damon

    I can see how retail could become a good short-term story. Especially if that retard Cramer gets behind it (Chipolte grill, anyone?)

    It goes against the grain of my pretzel logic, in that the economy and unemployment are terrible and getting worse.

    Then again, I know that when times get tough, the tough go shopping (that’s what my ex-girlfriend used to say, anyway)

    I’m still trading the daily $2-3 swings in FCX, which is about to bust out (up and/or down!)

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  26. znmeb

    Seriously? They’re going to sell tea in China?

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  27. buylo

    All in! I heard they will soon be introducing a very profitable tea shirt line to add beaucoup $ to their bottom line!

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  28. alf44

    … is anyone here old enough to remember the SNL skits about the “Scotch Tape” Mall Boutique !!!

    If you are … well …

    TEA ???

    SERIOUSLY ???

    Too funny !!!

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    • alf44

      … that just may be the most idiotic biz model I have ever heard of … “a bricks and mortar” tea retailer … in a freakin’ Mall !!!

      Wake me up !!!

      This HAS to be a dream !!!

      .

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  29. Trading_Nymph

    It’s time for Some Mortal Kombat next week, Me and my Sidekick the US Dollar have been standing around watching the entire global markets get giddy over possible QE after the King Clam (The Bank of England) gave us their version of QE2. Yes, Nymph and US Dollar took a strong hit..but we are still standing and ready for the Multi Clam Attacks this Week. At the end of the week I am hoping to have the Aussie Clam, King Clam, Broke Clam (ECB) and the ORIGINAL Clam’s Spine in my hand…get ready little Dollar..we are going into battle.

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  30. La Fayette

    what is a mall?

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  31. Trading_Nymph

    Fly, Thank You..I love doing Micro Analysis, and miss it so much. So you are looking at the “Heaven of Tea” I see. They have been busy little bees opening up a lot of stores which is always nice to see. For the product, Americans are lazy, that is why K Cups, Starbucks, etc works. This is loose leaf tea, not bagged and not that many lazy americans will be dedicated enough to buy and use it. For China, they love the killer high end stuff…looking at the website, they are basically out of their league at this point. They have one store at the Glendale Galleria here in Pasadena Calif..this is not high end, this is where you hang out and have a Hot Dog on a Stick. For the Fundies, Has its lock out period ended yet? Looks like a July IPO? So it should have just come or will be coming up, I wouldn’t buy until then. They had a good qtr, but a lot of that is from the new stores which draw a “first time” experience, so I am betting Lazy Americans won’t be coming for seconds. PE is crazy high, which explains the shorts circling like a wounded Zebra, they could get squeezed(but after this month, ouch,the market Squeezed us so hard). 22 is the stop for support at 55ma. Overall, I am bearish of this market, as you know. But, if I was back stockpicking, I think there are better stories. But THANK YOU, I miss looking at Great Companies..and not having to look at macro picture (I am so tired of that because this QE thing always slaps me in the face). BTW, I screwed up above, BOE is not meeting next week. But we do get a G20..fun, fun, fun. OH, and I really like the Tea Cafe idea, Starbucks has Very good Tea, but if they would brew it, I would come..cuz I am a Lazy American

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  32. Trading_Nymph

    rofl…maybe cuz its 4:45 am, Good Halloween Party….can’t come down from..but OMG, did I really type..the Glendale Galleria in Pasadena, lol..I need to go to bed. The Galleria is in Glendale..lol. Sleep Now.

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  33. MarshalN

    Teavana sells shit tea that Chinese overlords themselves won’t drink. Their trick is they sell it super-overpriced. Good luck with this one.

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  34. Old Salt

    Off the TEA topic but a good hour of Hugh Hendry
    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article31201.html

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  35. Taco

    Fundamentals? Who cares in this economy. The TA says the PPS buy zone is below $22. On my watchlist now.

    Thx.

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  36. Pete

    Has anyone here been on the “Allure of the Seas” cruise out of Fort Lauderdale? If so what did you think of it? Planning a first time cruise with friends and family in February 2012.

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  37. alvari40

    What happened to the day when people respected others for posting stock ideas on this blog?

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    • Trading_Nymph

      I really liked Fly’s Post on a Stock Idea. Market seems to be so Macro Driven these days that simple good companies get tossed aside.

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  38. coin

    it might not be a bad idea, however anyone who is thinking about buying stock up here(24 area)must be a lunatic. rather wait for gapfill(20 area) or lower

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  39. Frog Playing a Colorful Accordion
    Frog Playing a Colorful Accordion

    OWS

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wK1MOMKZ8BI&feature=player_embedded

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  40. flyaway18

    I am really liking the New Blogger Network on ibankcoin, lots of good information being posted there. To be honest, I have really tired of the Stocktwits model, and I end up following the IBC bloggers anyway. I have gone back to reading some of Timmay’s blogs because I am always curious how the bears view the market.

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    • drummerboy

      a few paste and copies from zh i see. really dont mind,but ifi you’ve already read them then ? twitts gets my attention about 3-4 times a week maybe,and lasts about that,3 minutes.

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  41. ruggyup

    Is tepee a place to live or something to do after tea or two words one of which is misspelled?

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  42. Post GMCR bust

    Buying TEA here looks to me like a strategy to buy Tea stocks because coffee stocks failed? So, fly things that cool aid coffee drinkers will shift to tea because coffee stocks are busted. I simply don’t get it. Sounds like a dumb strategy to me.

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    • Dr Fly

      You are an idiot. Who ever said the crap you just said?

      BANNED

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      • Why are these "growths" shops empty?
        Why are these "growths" shops empty?

        You didn’t answer anyone on why these shops are empty and no traffic. Checks at various locations reveal the same information.

        They are existing only because we have empty malls with leasing space available for every beggar. Otherwise, they should close the shop. They also exist because shareholders like you are taking the tea bag and funding them.

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  43. ruggyup

    Speaking of the bearded clam, which nobody is but, think relatively, where else but in Los Angeles would you expect to find a restaurant named PINK TACO? Think I’m full of brown, check Zagat.

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  44. Jakegint

    For the Fundies, Has its lock out period ended yet? Looks like a July IPO? So it should have just come or will be coming up, I wouldn’t buy until then.

    The Bearish Nympho makes a very good point here, Monsieur.

    _________

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    • ALLPROz

      Bingo…wait till 2012 after lock out period. CEO still have a 58% stake in TEA?

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      • Trading_Nymph

        Thank you Jake, I miss being Bullish Fundie Girl ala 2007..it’s hard being the Barely Bear Nymph ala 2009

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        • ruggyup

          Watch it! Some perve may nominate you for Bearish Fondle Girl for the Ages.

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        • Po Pimp

          You were bullish in 2007 and bearish since 2009? You may want to reconsider all this analysis stuff you are so proud of. It doesn’t seem to be working for you.

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  45. ALLPROz

    What about PEET? They sell fine teas as well as coffee. Tea is not trending in my neck of the woods…not yet anyway.

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  46. Missladybug

    Just wonder
    Ever try “Ice Tea” in Singapore and Malaysia?
    Some steaming tea with condensed milk and ice cubes – tastes extremely good in hot weather.

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  47. godad

    Forget it man. That store is as empty as a Paris Hilton’s head.

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  48. MTP

    Italian bonds fly..italian bonds… I loaded up Friday on ERY, TZA, and TYP… now is time to get short PERIOD

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    • Dr Funk

      Not sure about the timing, but love the sentiment. Market confidence will be killed permanently when the new (3rd?) eurobailout cracks. There are at least a couple major holes. LOOK OUT BELOW

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  49. SUBCOMANDANTE CHINCHINILLA!!!
    SUBCOMANDANTE CHINCHINILLA!!!

    The one I visited near Seattle reeked of desperation, not bergamot – though it could have also been the Seahawks.

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  50. D. Kass

    Here are my assorted thoughts on tea. There was/is a grower in the US who sold the product in packages. You must read the history of Sir Tetley before investing. A novel way of serving tea would be from a teat? I believe XVIX is up as I predicted Jake…..I knew it would go up – just not when. The last several times VIX has spiked – it always returns yo earth.

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  51. ruggyup

    WHAT? No tea bong? Huh? WTF

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  52. J

    Japan intervenes in the yen

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    • Dr Funk

      Fucktard dollar bears

      The dollar can only go down so much before pissing ‘someone’ off

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  53. Damon

    Why do I have this strange sense of foreboding about the market this coming week?

    It seems like even China wants nothing to do with Europe…who does that leave as Mr. Moneybags, Bernake?

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    • Blind Read Ant

      It’s time you read me: ibc/blindreadant

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      • Damon

        Japan moves to weaken Yen.

        Why won’t China do it to the Yuan?

        (because they control the world as we know it?)

        Time for a fresh iBC headline…wink wink, nudge, nudge.

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        • Blind Read Ant

          Let me add, don’t buy the pyhsical currency.

          I considered a trade in of my small USD purchase of MXN (that’s Mexican Peso’s circa 1997).

          What did I discover?

          That its currency, pre-1993, was no longer “valued” in USD, or any other currency.

          Share that lesson.

          I was thinking CNY is a steal at 6/7:1 USD 2011. Now, what if fiat money’s “modified”?

          Beware!

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  54. alf44

    Well … the Eagles “opened up a can” on my Cowboys tonight ! It was a pathetic display indeed !

    Apparently, the Cowboys thought they were actually GREAT … after walking over the lowly Rams last week !

    Pathetic !

    In other news, apparently the New Orleans Saints ALSO thought THEY were great and didn’t need to take the Rams seriously !

    Surprise Surprise Surprise !!!

    .

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    • JakeGint

      You cannot take anything or anyone for granted in this league. There are no easy games… Giants almost slept walked into a loss after the bye too!

      To the lowly Fish!

      ______________

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      • TeahouseOnTheTracks
        TeahouseOnTheTracks

        We did that today … 1st time in 8 byes … no thanks to the porous zone defense that can’t play mano y mano for all the TEAhouses in China.

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  55. pitbull

    A pivotal week in trading will occur this week. Earnings and economic data are abundant and four major events will occur; the FOMC decision and press conference on Wednesday, the ECB rate decision and press conference on Thursday morning, the G20 Summit on Thursday and Friday and the Jobs Report on Friday morning. As if all this drama was not enough, Keystone’s Eclipse Indicator calls out this time period now thru mid November as a potential large market selloff area, and, the Bradley Turn window is open forecasting a potential market turn this week. This all adds up to a major confluence of events—strap yourself in.

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  56. non veg jokes. papu jokes

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