18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
I’m down about 0.75% today, led by losses in WNR, LULU and DK. With regards to the refiners: they are being slaughtered due to Enbridge reversing the flow of oil from Cushing to the Gulf. Well, frankly, that shouldn’t result in this massive 50% drop in 321 spreads. This is yet another example of a monster trade being unwound. Anyone who was long Brent versus WTI is getting crushed. Anyone who was betting on 321 spreads expanding is being compressed. Once the dust settles and people realize that $15 spreads are traditionally rich, the stocks will settle down. However, I am not chasing them down here because irrational markets tend to stay irrational until the pain threshold is met. At this point, the pain may be only beginning.
Luckily, both WNR and DK make up less than 7% of assets.
On the other hand, gold and silver stocks are strong, despite weakness in gold and silver. RGLD, EXK and AG are all higher.
LULU is dropping in sympathy with a lot of retail names. ANF may have spooked the sector.
In the big scheme of things, with French yields now at 3.7%, this is a big non-event.
European yields are easing today, sans Spain. I have every right to walk away from today’s tape. This is fucking stupid bullshit. Here we go again. The Dow is set to open down about 1% and everyone with an ax to grind is grinding it. We were supposed to be down yesterday, but rallied like cocaine addled gorillas. If we close down today, it’s not the end of the world. If the DAX isn’t down more than 3%, I’m not worried.
“The Fly” no longer favours [sic] the watching of the box. I’ve been way to involved in the minute by minute machinations of the market. There was a time, not too long ago, when I’d ignore stocks for 50% of the day–just because I was confident in my positions. But 2011 has been a fucking bone-crusher with regards to volatility. It’s too hard to ignore the swings, for fear of letting the losses become insurmountable.
During the course of 2011, I’ve booked so many short term losses. I rarely let losses extend too far because my conviction, for the most part, has been tenuous.
At any rate, I’m getting the fuck out of here. I am interested in watching a movie or two and will be checking in later for a mid-day update.
Don’t be surprised to see the dollar rise against the Euro, as the EZ tries to punch its way out of the paper bag they find themselves in. At the moment, the euro is down more than 0.6% against the dollar–sending chills throughout Asia and S&P futures. However, is this really a surprise? The euro has to trade down because it’s their turn to QE. Under a loose EZ, I suspect the US dollar will appreciate with stocks. Should that happen, traditional correlations will be thrown into disarray, as people expect the dollar to weaken in order to green light the purchase of stocks. Not necessarily.
Nevertheless, there is a good chance we trade down tomorrow, especially once the European bond crisis resumes trading. If French yields climb again tomorrow, we’ll nosedive quickly. But you should appreciate the sense of urgency being applied to the European pussies. They can’t procrastinate any longer. Blueprints will not suffice. The world demands towering skyscrapers with anti-aircraft batteries on top.
So, for me, this is pretty simple. It’s easy to sit back and watch the panickers manically panic. The Germans don’t have the stones to ignore this mess and elect for mutual destruction. This cold war will be won by those camped out near the fireside.
When I blew myself up in 2000-2001, I had a bullish disposition that could not be shaken. I was programmed to believe there was only one way for the market: up. I was coming off of ridiculous years, earning high six figures and just 24 years old. We had our own tailors, jewelers, secretaries, underlings and people feeding us illegal leads for $10k at a pop.(those in the business know what I am talking about). Everything was great until the music stopped and EVERYTHING was taken away from me. By early 2003, I was a new man, forged through the fires of 2000-2002. I came out the other end okay, but my clients suffered losses. It wasn’t a good feeling, especially for someone who prides himself on research.
See, things come into focus when you are managing other peoples money. It’s not okay to be wrong and pretend everything will work out. I learned that lesson and promised myself to never relearn it again (redundancy at its finest). This fucking business is not a game, nor is the content that is provided here on iBankCoin. Top notch and shelf.
Anyway, today’s rally was easy to detect, due to the lack of conviction by the sellers early going. I’m eking out small gains here, but that’s okay. I have the patience of an elephant and the rage of a medieval executioner. I’m gonna make this life count. You can bet your bottom dollar that “The Fly” is destined for extreme greatness. If I have to stomp you out to fan my flames, so be it.
The overly dramatic are getting theatrical again, demanding tragedy in the form of a stock market calamity. Oil simply pisses on their heads, from above, as they recite diatribes of gluttonous speculation.
In accordance with the irrefutable LAWS (THEY ARE FUCKING LAWS GOD DAMN IT) of Turkey, the stock market SHALL NOT decline. Just because you want it to go down doesn’t mean that it will. I look at my position in LULU and laugh at the valuation. But, as sure as I am sitting here, it will trade higher and I will make money in it.
Eventually, logic will permeate the market phalanx, leading to a most disastrous drop.
AAPL shits on your decline. BAC snores through your bank run.
I am not content with things, as my progress has been stunted with moronic volatility. We go way the fuck up, then way the fuck down. I’d be better off playing cards with ChessnWine in Vegas, than making long term directional bets here. First I thought we’d go up, then down, then up, then down, now up. I’m sure I will change my mind about 50 times from now until X-Mas. But that’s my style. I am very malleable when it comes to market direction. I look back at my blogs and chuckle at them, due to the psychopathic nature of my moods. Trust me when I tell you, my emotional moving average is a lot more stable in the real world. It’s this virtual shit that drives me bananas.
But let’s face facts now, shall we? Stocks are stubborn and oil will not go down. There is something cooking and it is never good for the bears. They are the punching bag of policy makers and I am sure some egregious plan is been concocted, as we speak, for the explicit purposes of depleting their resources.
At any rate, I could be wrong; but I doubt it. Betting against Le Fly has led to numerous bankruptcies and property foreclosures. If you are feeling full of pomp, step right up and take a swing. It’s only your money, respect and dignity that’s at stake.
Even though the market deserves a 3,000 point single day drop, thanks to the prospect of, umm, fucking France defaulting on their debt, the market is yawning it out with a 20 point dip. If you are a bear, your balls are firmly placed in a vise. Soon enough, the dumbest news will turn the handles of said vise until…
I am sick of hearing myself talk.
This is what I am doing:
(crickets)
Long absurd amount of gold and silver, living the life, cooler than a cucumber.
On Sunday I was looking for “The Godfather of all Short Squeezes” and now I’m expecting “BROKEN ELEVATOR” trading “pin-action.” Why? Because this is retardoville, where life is stupid and nothing makes sense.
French 10 year yields are officially in the danger zone, +7% to 3.67% this morning. Wait, it gets better!
Italy +4.2% to 6.98%.
Spain +3.4% to 6.3%
Belgium +7.8% to 4.95%!
This is all too quaint for me to take in all at once. There is no way Europe gets out of this one. This is the “figure four leg lock” of bond squeezes. The wolves are clever animals. Instead of focusing their efforts on Italy and outliers like the homosexuals in Portugal, they went to the source and fucked them–France.
It’s so hilarious.
Prepare for zero bids and loose talk of insolvency. Over the past 5 years, Unicredit made over $60 billion in acquisitions. They just reported a fucking write-down of $14 billion+. ROFL. Meatballs.
At any rate, the end game, no matter what, will be the printing of magic money. Therefore, the gold/silver trade is as relevant as ever. There are no safe currencies, despite what that psychopath Bill Ackman believes, with regards to the Hong Kong dollar.
All day long the idiots on CNBC were making light of the Congressional insider trading report. Fuck that. By turning it into something comedic, you take away the guillotine option. Most of you know of my disdain for the Occupy Wall Street crowd. But do you know why?
I think they are a fucking joke, nothing more than government hacks, modern day brown shirts for the democrat party. Plus, they’ve elected to be homeless vagrants and I like soap.
But this insider trading story hones in on everything that is wrong with our government. They are corrupt– all of them. Anyone who participates in the two party system is corrupt, end of story. These bastards are pointing fingers at Goldman and other Wall Street firms for business practices, while profiting from insider knowledge of non-public information. In other words, hedge fund managers get 11 years in prison for the same crimes that are LEGAL for the degenerates in Congress.
How is that fair?
They are the fattest of the fat cats. These little men were buying short term calls and puts in the midst of the 2008 crisis to profit from the news-flow that they were dictating.
My point: The morons from CNBC should stop laughing and making jokes about this topic. They are real quick to throw hedge fund managers under the bus, with ominous “BREAKING NEWS” broadcasts. But when congress does it, big titted idiots crack jokes. Fuck that.
The market went down today and I lost some money. I am very sorry that I cannot make money every single day like the rest of you “winners.” But don’t worry, my Mother is an elected official and I’m gonna ask her for some privileged information later on tonight.
Top picks: AKS, OMX, EXK
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWGOaqEBnlw&feature=related
Food for thought. Who is the evil party in this whole crisis story? Is it the people who want Europe to declare insolvency and restructure? Or, is the people who wish to “extend and pretend” through artificially propping up failed governments and institutions, which in turn hurt the people through caused inflation and harsh austerity?
The knee-jerk opinion is to declare Bernanke an evil genius, one who is interested in slaughtering poor people via starvation. However, if Ben allows the financial system to collapse, how does that help Joe Shmoe, working at the bus depot making 45k per annum? Without intervention, deflation on a massive scale will hit, which will drive prices down. On the surface, this sounds fantastic. But what will happen to margins? Everything will be CRUSHED, including stocks.
Corporations will lay off workers and the reduction of cost of goods will become a moot point, since no one will be able to afford them anyway.
The big winners will be the people who saved for a rainy day. You know that $750k house you’ve been eying? You’ll be able to buy it at $550k with a 3.5% 30 year mortgage.
On the flip-side, if we continue the path of quantitative easing, commodities will rise and our shitty banks will still withhold capital, since they are effectively insolvent and useless. Couple that with fucktarded government OVER-regulation, the price of housing isn’t going anywhere but flat to down in the foreseeable future. Stocks will outperform and 8-10% unemployment will be “the new normal.”
My point: this is not an easy problem to deal with.
While talking shit on the internet, everyone seems to be an expert. It’s easy to second guess the actions of community organizers partaking in 4 wars and a great recession. But his job sucks dick, no? I do not envy anyone in power. However, I do wish to profit from their mistakes.
It is as clear as America’s collective cholesterol levels: policy makers are committed to an reflationary response. As much as you pine for Germany to walk away from the presses and invade Greece for sport, it isn’t going to happen. The path of least resistance, especially for professional politicians who harbor not one iota of nationalistic pride, is to “extend and pretend.” If that’s the case, ask yourself, what asset class will be the big winner in such an egregious scenario?
Once you figure it out and come to grips with reality, like I have, you will be able to invest freely, without a care in the world–for time, in every sense of the word, is on your side.
