Thoughts While Tea is Brewing

I am fresh out of loose leaf Earl Gray tea (tragedy), forcing me to try something from the orient of the chai varietal. I don’t like to deviate from routine and this really throws me for a loop. Mrs. Fly has in her possession over $500 worth of Teavana loose leaf tea, all flavoured with fruit. Even though Earl Gray is infused with bergamot oils (orange), it’s not really a fruity tea. In short, I like my tea like my portfolios: in the black.

With April fast approaching, one must consider the possibility that oil stocks can go up again. It’s been mind-boggling to see them suffer so greatly –with oil so high. It is the purest form of asshattery that market has ever known. In the oil and nat gas space, SWN, HP and WFT are on my radar. Also, if the market softens, CL is poised to do the $100 roll. Boy did Icahn play that one like a fucking senile old fucker, no?

Although pricing pressures persist in the glass substrate market, at some point, Asahi and Corning will get their acts together and start ripping people off again. Remember when SNDK was under $20, due to weak NAND prices, despite the popularity of the Ipod and Iphone? Well, as sure as I am sitting here, margins for GORILLA GLASS will improve and the shares will trade much higher. Should we get an Apple tv, shares will rebound immediately.

I own BID for the spring auctions. JWN is a trade, as well as MAS and TDC.

CPST is trading wrong. The company isn’t in such bad shape. I am convinced it will be 30-50% higher by year end.

YELP can trade down 15% from current levels without a problem. Or, money managers get the drift that YELP has no competition and is in a class of its own, bidding the stock up–fervently–until Facebook ipo’s. Either way, I foresee myself trading it for many months to come.

Should we trade down some more, I will take a 10% position in EXK. Both EXK and AG are cheap.

Finally, my only reservation about being a blind bull is China. It’s clear to me that something is off there, as evidenced by their struggling market and weakness in met coal prices. The weakness is met coal is causing a whole slew of industrial names to trade down, under a singular thesis: china is slowing. If China is slowing, then ANR will file for bankruptcy, alongside AKS. It’s tempting to buy BTU, TCK, MTW and WTI down here. But, if the market is really one big fucking pozi scheme waiting to implode, then those sectors (coal, steel, industrials) will get lambasted first and foremost.

The Samurai chai isn’t half bad, but not nearly as distinguished as my usual.

I wanted to buy MAS and GLW on the dip this morning. But I held myself back because the positions were down less than 5%. Cash reserves must be used smartly, designed to buy real dips of 10% or more.

The market reversed from a 100 point deficit to flat. This bodes extremely well for a “rip your tits” off rally tomorrow, aboard the cocaine chuck wagon, traveling violently at frightening speeds, breaking the skeletal structures of bears in the way.

I warned you before and I am telling you again: we’re going to new all-time highs. As unbelievable as that might seem to you, so foreign, full of fantasy, it’s going to happen. Now you have as choice in front of you, presented with a wax seal, placed on your desk. Should you continue the feckless path of financial bleakness, TVIXing yourself into deep deficits? Or, will you join the party, hop onboard the cocaine chuck wagon, hosted by the eminent, God’s only son, Benjamin Bernanke– and bathe in the profits descended from the sky?

This is a rally fueled by counterfeit money. Does it make sense to bet against it?

I tripled my BID position.

Futures are pointing to yet another lower open. Shares in China are getting hit on a daily basis and European stocks are at 3 week lows. Basic material stocks are vastly underperforming the S&P and risk appetite seems to be waning. Having said that, I don’t give a shit. Stocks are going to trade up, by hook or crook. The only question is: what sectors can I find the best return?

I see people are buying tanker stocks because of dry bulk shipping rates. Well, frankly, that’s retarded. The only reason why the shippers are doing “okay” is because record amounts of tankers are being scrapped for its metal. On top of that, coal volume is down sharply. Until the steel industry comes back, spurring a boom in the met coal stocks, I want no part of the shippers. They’re all connected.

I still like high end retail, due to its unique position away from the lower class. I own BID and JWN–and will add more on dips. As a matter of fact, being fully invested, I have but two choices with regards to my positions: add to them or buy more.

Generally speaking I cut losses at -10%. However, if I really like the idea, I will double down at -10%. In many ways, that is the crossroad for me. Other times, I will sell out of a stock when it is just 5% below my basis, specifically for names that I have little confidence in. At the moment, I am up significantly in YELP, but down slightly in MAS and GLW and flat in TDC, JWN and BID. I am down 18% in CPST– but continue to hold for superficial reasons.

At the top of my buy list is RAX, BID, ADTN, ULTA, KKD and TRIP. Also, should the market become OVERSOLD, gold and silver will jump to the top of my buy list, due to the high correlation between market bottoms and the miners. Within the space, I like AG and EXK.

Social media stocks are great, especially with Facebook set to ipo within 60 days. Understand something, that will be the grande finale of this run. It’s very possible that the market will top out with the FB ipo, which means social media stocks should be sold into the Facebook ipo. Nonetheless, I believe there is more upside in the space before they top. My favorites are YELP, TRIP, BV, BCOV and YNDX. OPEN, TZOO, CTRP and OSTK are also interesting, if only from a short squeeze point of view.

During the course of today’s trading, I am going to research some new names, perusing over the April seasonality list inside of The PPT, plainly ignoring the temporary weakness that has the ursine crowd circle jerking again.

I am going to make a presentation for the fine gentlemen/ladies who read iBankCoin. All others, particularly those of the vagrant class, will be precluded from seeing this post, as it is written in a special/patented font that cloaks my message to those of the Mezzo Cito–making it invisible to the naked eye.

My question to you is: at what price or valuation do you buy a winner?

The correct answer is: any price.

I’d love nothing more than to say “see I told you so. The fucking charts had some pentagram formation, blended with a little trapezoid humour that told me YELP was about to explode.” I don’t rely on technical analysis for any of my trades, although I know people who do it very well. I didn’t know YELP was about to explode by 50% in a week. But I knew, down to the depths of my black soul, that it was going higher.

One my best friends growing up was over for St Patrick’s day dinner and we discussed his account. At the time, believe it or not, I had him in a little VXX (friends shouldn’t let friends invest in VXX). He was eager to make money quickly, mainly due to boredom, so I told him I’d just buy up some YELP because I was absolutely positive it would trade higher at some point in 2012, just like WNR at $12, GMCR @ $25, GSVC @ $12, FTK @$1 etc. What I didn’t know is that the stock would do this, fucking nuts.

Now I haven’t sold any YELP, mainly because it’s not a question of making money anymore, but how much. The way I see it, the stock is going $40 at some point in 2012; I’ve always believed that. Should I miss a short term top, I will buy the dip. It’s that simple.

Granted, I could sell at $31 and reduce myself in a fucking frying pan to pussy sauce. Or, I can man the fuck up and say to myself “Fly, you’re better than those dicksuckers out there. All they do is watch cartoons, play video games and lose at shit. You’ve been trading in and out of stocks like a fucking lunatic fisherman in a dry pond for over a year, taking small gains and living off the dust of the earth. You can either continue this egregious lifestyle of conviction-less investing or sack up and see this one through.”

I really said all of that shit to myself.

So there you have it. You should take profits and go buy some hamburgers, or whatever the fuck you idiots eat for dinner. I, on the other hand, have deiced to leave the office, in search for greener pastures, literally, with regards to a real estate transaction of the personal sort.

Here is some of the early commentary on YELP, inside of the the “user notes” section part of The PPT.

Basic materials are getting hit again. I am leaning towards selling my RS, but want to give it a shot to get back on track. The whole point of keeping RS is to have exposure to basic materials. Although weak, the industry tends to go gangbusters when things in China are going well. However, as of late, the chinese stock market has been getting kicked in the noodles.

I suspect the market is going to trade lower, just a smidge, in order to lure a fresh batch of bears into the snare. Rest assured, similar to past traps, this decline will only result in more pain for the ursine types.

Near the top of my buy list is BID, ahead of the spring auction season. “The Fly” is all about high end luxury items, which is why he made money in TIF while many of you lost money in MCD. The point being, a great many of you eat, rather sloppily, at MCD or WEN, clad in CROX shoes and Lee jeans. Frankly, that’s disgusting, on many levels.

It’s too early to make any well informed predictions. But thus far, the market decline looks benign– perhaps a fine occasion to capitulate on shorts and get long before the tide rises again.

UPDATE: I sold out of RS.

No, I didn’t sell any YELP today; I bought more! The stock will likely trade lower tomorrow, following today’s nirvana. But it accomplished something significant today, aside from all-time high share price: visibility. I gather the lot of you are still using rotary phones and watching black and white televisions with antennas on top; but Yelp is changing the way people pick places to eat. It’s the Zagat killer, social media at its best.

Aside from YELP, BID, RS and JWN, my other positions traded lower, as the market weakened into the bell. That’s all right. We’re overdue a correction and the TVIX needs some love. I am glad to have sold EXK; but chagrined that I bought MAS near the highs of the day. It’s a half position, so I will have no reservations about averaging in lower–should the opportunity present itself.

CPST is such a piece of offal. But I am interested to see how the story plays out, which is why I haven’t sold any shares. If I sold today, my losses would be around 18% and could be easily absorbed and offset with the gains I am enjoying elsewhere. Nevertheless, stubbornly, I still hold.

For the day, I advanced by 1.7%, firmly putting myself at annual and all-time highs, indeud.

I am closing out Q1 up about 20%. I’ve told you, over and over, about my obsession with starting the year with gains. Well, I’ve worked about 2 months this quarter and find myself with more than 4x my 2011 returns.

After revving up the engines in late December, I decided to take profits in early February, chilled in cash; now I’m speeding again inside of my fucking space ship–abducting fuckers from 0hio and tossing them into outerspace.  I have a large amount of YELP ripping chest hairs to the upside. A more humble man than I would be taking profits here, preserving his coin for later use.

“NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BE A PUSSY.”

I don’t give a shit that the stock is up 20% since my initial position. I bought more today and will sell it all when my favorite urinal shadow tells me to.

I bought some MAS today, due to my desire to have housing exposure. Those fuckers make kitchen cabinets, things of that nature. Since Mrs. Fly has a $100k kitchen renovation in mind, I see it as a good hedge against her superfluities. Also, I added to GLW. There is some shit brewing with GLW. You fuckers just don’t know it yet.

I sold out of EXK because I don’t like precious metals when the market is overheating.

Back in 1999, I was 23 making $250,000 per month, long internet stocks, first to show because my brain works better than others. Fast forward 13 years, I’m doing the same ol’ shit.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kpqCzTAF70

I added to YELP and GLW and started a new position in MAS. Get the fuck out of my way.