Basically Weak

Basic materials are getting hit again. I am leaning towards selling my RS, but want to give it a shot to get back on track. The whole point of keeping RS is to have exposure to basic materials. Although weak, the industry tends to go gangbusters when things in China are going well. However, as of late, the chinese stock market has been getting kicked in the noodles.

I suspect the market is going to trade lower, just a smidge, in order to lure a fresh batch of bears into the snare. Rest assured, similar to past traps, this decline will only result in more pain for the ursine types.

Near the top of my buy list is BID, ahead of the spring auction season. “The Fly” is all about high end luxury items, which is why he made money in TIF while many of you lost money in MCD. The point being, a great many of you eat, rather sloppily, at MCD or WEN, clad in CROX shoes and Lee jeans. Frankly, that’s disgusting, on many levels.

It’s too early to make any well informed predictions. But thus far, the market decline looks benign– perhaps a fine occasion to capitulate on shorts and get long before the tide rises again.

UPDATE: I sold out of RS.

41 Responses to Basically Weak

The Fly says:

Now would be a good time for some of you YELP haters to apologize to me, not that I’ll accept your apology. But, you can try, nonetheless.

Reply
russian turkey says:

Conversely, I would like to thank you for putting YELP on my radar. Bought at 23 and caught this entire move, with no plans to sell yet. Thanks!

Reply
Dr Fly says:

Just doing my job, trading like a Congressman and shit.

Reply
EN1GMA says:

From the delinquent yahoo message board the from March 26th in case you didn’t already see…

“I added this a.m. after
seeing the fly buy .
The Fly is either the
luckiest or best trader/buyer I’ve ever
seen .”

Reply
argh says:

Zillow 24M monthly visitors market cap 956M
Yelp 54M monthly visitors… 2.25X as much.
Multiply 956M and you end up with 2.151B market cap…
Zillow is probably going to have more value per person since people are actively looking to buy a home and home is worth more and realators are probably more willing to pay more as visitors is much more targeted and worth more than whoever advertises on yelp for whatever….

But yelp probably has a lot bigger upside in terms of total number of visitors….

what is Craigslist valued at? (they get 20B visitors per month)

Reply
The Fly says:

YOU DON’T GET IT, DICKSUCKER.

Yelp caters to a much, much, much greater audience.

Reply
argh says:

hence,
“But yelp probably has a lot bigger upside in terms of total number of visitors….

what is Craigslist valued at? (they get 20B visitors per month)”

Reply

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