We Bounce Now

This is the oversold bounce we’ve been looking for. It isn’t glamorous and filled with unchecked hedonism. It is a respite of water, in a sea of sand. I expect the SPY to move 2% from here, with many stocks recapturing 5-10% gains in short order, then back lower again.

I added to IMMR and bought the beaten down RAS, afflicted harshly due to the dismantling of the REIT sector. I cannot believe this is it. The Fed is done and housing is going back down the sewer pipe. That’s not how this story is going to end.

Rates will go lower again and housing related stocks will rip to the upside. I like BZH and HOV, down at these levels. If I hadn’t purchased so much RAS, I’d be buying BZH today, hand over fist.

Z is being tossed out again; but valuations are still rich. Long term, my favorite social media stocks are YELP, Z, TRIP and ANGI.

I’m down to 15% cash, with the purchases of DDD, IMMR and RAS. I am going to sit with these positions for a few days and buy more stocks, only if the market heads lower again.

Here is a live reading from The PPT.

I started a new position in RAS and bought a little IMMR in the $12’s.

There is a single person amongst you who is addled with an extreme mental disorder. This person comments under different pseudonyms and is perverted in nature, most likely due to repressing his homosexuality since young. He goes by the names of “Fly looser” or “John Taffer” or “Fly Scam” or “Fly lame.” These are names that a child would concoct. His brain is the size of my testicle, just one of them. I ban him and he comes back, like a cockroach crawling out from a nuclear winter.

Let it be known, I am very close to finding his exact whereabouts and I intend to exact “extreme justice” upon his person.

Stocks are on sale, ladies. Nothing here scares me, not even the specter of IMMR trading to single digits.

I did a search, looking over some quality names and their 1 to 2 week drubbings. This is what I found.

Over $1 billion cap

SSNI -31%
CREE -25%
OWW -19%
HIMX -18%
LCC -18%
ARR -15%
TRIP -14%
ANGI -14%
IBN -16%
SUNE -35%
SSTK -13%

Under $1 billion cap

LITB -35%
MM -27%
OCZ -26%
YRCW -51%
REGI -17%
CNDO -26%
CSIQ -30%
RAS -15%
CECO -25%
CAAS -35%
OAKS -22%
PSUN -21%
TROV -20%
POWR -15%

This is major league carnage and the weak have been separated from their coin, once again.

Ben Bernanke lurks in the shadows, watching, ever so maniacally.

I hate the market right now and feel handcuffed from taking action. I don’t want to short and I don’t want to buy. I just want to wait.

Muni and government bond funds are approaching absurd levels, some down more than 20% in recent months. REITs are dead. And, all of a sudden, the great housing boom is dead.

Something has to give.

We’re either heading back into a self-inflicted recession, by tapering, or this is all parlour tricks to get you, the unwashed, to surrender your 401k’s and IRA’s to the market.

I got crushed today; but that’s okay. It’s part of the design.

Are you a lamb or a lion?

If you want to delve into the trash heap of Wall Street and buy some illiquid chinese stocks, you might make some money. Other than that, everything is down. The higher rates go, the more people sell their stocks, fearing some sort of “black swan” event might take place.

Aside from buying a little DDD today, I don’t have an interest in buying the decline, just yet. Perhaps I will feel different about it tomorrow. I am more of a momentum buyer, if anything else. Essentially, I am being greedy, awaiting for good prices to buy more IMMR, AMBA, POWI and YELP.

With my core positions heading lower, I might as well keep my cash available, to buy more core.

Unless something pops out at me as a “dunk shot” play, I am going to wait for the market to turn, then step in and buy.

My largest position, IMMR, is getting smashed on a daily basis, ever since their record earnings.

Why?

More sellers than buyers.

For some reason, people tend to sell IMMR when AAPL is going higher, being that they make more than 50% of their revenues from Samsung. There is room for both to grow, in harmony, and IMMR is getting very cheap.

I’m not particularly concerned over the precipitous drop. I’ve chalked it up to “low volume, bad market, bs.” Being that I sold a healthy amount in the mid $14’s and have plenty of cash, I don’t mind the price decline, especially since I feel it’s worth a lot more than $12.95.

The only other stock that I am looking at is FLTX. It’s a great little company, perfect for this environment of absurd gasoline prices.

This is typical summer malaise, mixed with a little taper. Relax and wait for the inflection point. It’s coming soon.

I just couldn’t bring myself to the vagrancy level of Chinese lotto stocks. Instead, I am playing lotto with my 3-d glasses on, long DDD.

Look at some of these chinese stocks again, pure jackpot.

HPJ, BITA, EJ, SFUN, CPSL, LTON, MCOX, AMAP and VIPS through the roof.

I am bored. Therefore, it’s incumbent upon me to play the chinese lottery. It’s chinese lotto time and I too want my share of the millions being made in seconds, long degenerate names. I understand this is counterproductive, with regards to preserving cash for a worthy endeavor. But I need to get my lotto on, god damn it.

DEVELOPING…

I realize a great many of you want to make mountains out of mole hills, exclaim the ‘market has topped’, then ride off into the sunset a future billionaire, long TZA. Truth be told, this sell off is tepid, conjured up by the bowels of wall street, designed to scare people into surrendering their retirement accounts.

Sure, rates are going up and the rate of change is startling. The chinese economy is definitely slowing and commodities are indicating some sort of hyper-active deflation is lurking, just ’round the corner.

I don’t play these games anymore and the fate of the market isn’t up for debate.

I will not entertain your thoughts or guesses any longer, because they’ve proven to be money losers over a very long period of time.

Here is what is going to happen, to the exact detail.

The markets will weaken from late August until the end of September, luring a fresh batch of “Hugh Hendry’s” into the fray. Then, just when everyone gears up for an “October surprise”, they will all be ushered into the smoke pit, to the BBQ’d alive, coin and all.

“The Fly” doesn’t subscribe to your dire predictions. Instead, he deems you to be an idiot of the first order.

Let the wine flow and the people frolic. In the meantime, I will bide my time very carefully, plotting to reallocate my 34% cash horde into meaningful positions, like a vampire, drinking the blood of your families net worth.

My teeth are sharp.

I am back in the north, where the wind is cold and the people are smart. Ninety percent of the people who live in Princeton are somewhat intelligent, as opposed to 90% of the folks in Richmond, who are in fact drunk–including children.

I did, however, enjoy my stay at Fredericksburg. I did all of the usual tourist stuff and was fascinated by the rich history that is preserved in that town. I highly recommend it for anyone who is interested in going on a road trip down south.

If in fact you ever stay in Richmond, be sure to steer very clear of The Westin hotel. It is a 100% hovel, this is easily bested by the very clean and accommodative Hampton Inn. When it comes to hotels, “The Fly” doesn’t aim for the most luxurious, but the cleanest–analyzed closely by the reviews left on Tripadvisor.com. If, by chance, there is a 4 star, highly rated hotel, in the city I am staying in, then I will book it. Otherwise, it’s Hampton Inn all the way– or a top notch bed and breakfast.

I see the market sucked this week. I’ve been out of the loop, so why don’t you fill me in on why the market fell?

All opinions are welcomed.