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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Avoiding the Knife

I am fully invested here, following my DDD purchase. I was going to average down in AMBA, but decided against catching the falling knife, in favor of grabbing onto a rocket ship. With today’s move in AMBA, I am down 10% on the position. This is where I draw the line, typically, deciding whether to double down on the position or cut my losses.

It’s important to consider the condition of the overall market, when assessing risk. I view the current sell off as superfluous and without teeth. Therefore, as logic dictates, the greater the percentage loss in a high beta name, the more likely it will spring higher when the rebound commences.

We are waiting for the Fed minutes and I’d be shocked, SHOCKED MIND YOU, if they are bearish for stocks.

Nonetheless, this is the weird time of the year for stocks and anything can happen.

In short, during period of duress, it’s important to analyze risk and determine whether averaging down is “worth it.” By that I mean, is XYZ a core position or a trade? If it’s the latter, you might be better off allocating money elsewhere. I love corrections because it allows me to own quality stocks at discounted prices. Now is the time to discard the trash, in favor for “good” stocks.

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But Solar is Up

The market is getting smashed again and I am loosing [sic] money. I figured, if I am going to get slapped around by the market like this, I might as well write like a retard.

Solars are up and running, with about 90% of the sector green.

Homes sales came in rock solid, lending to a neutrality in the shares of the homies today.

The over-arching theme is rates. The market is running inverse to its direction: rates up, market down. This phenomenon isn’t new and was probably to blame for the 2008 market melt down, after Greenspan popped the housing bubble by raising rates 6 consecutive times. So here we are again, but this time the market is responding to innuendo, instead of actual Fed policy.

Total nonsense.

AMBA is lighting my face on fire, for no reason at all.

Thank god for YELP and DDD.

At the moment, my losses are stunted at 0.8%. I might allocate some cash into this mess.

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A COMPLETE AND THOROUGH UPDATE OF MY POSITIONS

Here are my positions and the thesis by which decisions are made, with regards to being long.

IMMR: The stock is going higher, which is why I own it.

YELP: I like the stock, especially since it’s going higher.

POWI: Rumour has it the stock is heading much higher. I concur (extra Dr.), which is why I am long.

AAPL: I own AAPL and would bet my male anatomy it’s going higher.

AMBA: I like many things about the company, especially its stock–because it’s going higher.

CHD: This stock has treated me very well over the years, mainly due to the fact it has gone higher.

DDD: Higher in 3-D? Why the hell not?

FB: The world’s worst ipo of all time is seemingly heading higher.

PAMT: Knock, knock. Who’s there? It’s me, “Heading”. Heading who? Heading higher.

WM: This garbage stock is all the rage. I foresee its share price going higher.

PEP: Have you ever taken a warm bottle of pepsi, shake it up real good, then open it? That’s what the stock price is going to do soon.

RAS: My latest and greatest stock that will be known around these parts for demonstrating a distinct sense of decorum, with regards to heading, the hell, higher.

That is all.

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I AM VERY LONG

This shouldn’t come as a surprise to any of you. I wanted to reiterate the fact that I am not terrified of “the taper” or inconspicuous events that might transpire in the month of September.

The liquidity will flow again, as sure as I am sitting here lamenting Mrs. Fly’s pestering of me, at this very moment in time.

I will provide the world with a full update of my investments tonight.

Top picks: POWI, IMMR, YELP.

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We Bounce Now

This is the oversold bounce we’ve been looking for. It isn’t glamorous and filled with unchecked hedonism. It is a respite of water, in a sea of sand. I expect the SPY to move 2% from here, with many stocks recapturing 5-10% gains in short order, then back lower again.

I added to IMMR and bought the beaten down RAS, afflicted harshly due to the dismantling of the REIT sector. I cannot believe this is it. The Fed is done and housing is going back down the sewer pipe. That’s not how this story is going to end.

Rates will go lower again and housing related stocks will rip to the upside. I like BZH and HOV, down at these levels. If I hadn’t purchased so much RAS, I’d be buying BZH today, hand over fist.

Z is being tossed out again; but valuations are still rich. Long term, my favorite social media stocks are YELP, Z, TRIP and ANGI.

I’m down to 15% cash, with the purchases of DDD, IMMR and RAS. I am going to sit with these positions for a few days and buy more stocks, only if the market heads lower again.

Here is a live reading from The PPT.
ppt

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Fly Buys: $RAS, $IMMR

I started a new position in RAS and bought a little IMMR in the $12’s.

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Stocks Are On Sale

There is a single person amongst you who is addled with an extreme mental disorder. This person comments under different pseudonyms and is perverted in nature, most likely due to repressing his homosexuality since young. He goes by the names of “Fly looser” or “John Taffer” or “Fly Scam” or “Fly lame.” These are names that a child would concoct. His brain is the size of my testicle, just one of them. I ban him and he comes back, like a cockroach crawling out from a nuclear winter.

Let it be known, I am very close to finding his exact whereabouts and I intend to exact “extreme justice” upon his person.

Stocks are on sale, ladies. Nothing here scares me, not even the specter of IMMR trading to single digits.

I did a search, looking over some quality names and their 1 to 2 week drubbings. This is what I found.

Over $1 billion cap

SSNI -31%
CREE -25%
OWW -19%
HIMX -18%
LCC -18%
ARR -15%
TRIP -14%
ANGI -14%
IBN -16%
SUNE -35%
SSTK -13%

Under $1 billion cap

LITB -35%
MM -27%
OCZ -26%
YRCW -51%
REGI -17%
CNDO -26%
CSIQ -30%
RAS -15%
CECO -25%
CAAS -35%
OAKS -22%
PSUN -21%
TROV -20%
POWR -15%

This is major league carnage and the weak have been separated from their coin, once again.

Ben Bernanke lurks in the shadows, watching, ever so maniacally.

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UGLY FACED SELL OFF

I hate the market right now and feel handcuffed from taking action. I don’t want to short and I don’t want to buy. I just want to wait.

Muni and government bond funds are approaching absurd levels, some down more than 20% in recent months. REITs are dead. And, all of a sudden, the great housing boom is dead.

Something has to give.

We’re either heading back into a self-inflicted recession, by tapering, or this is all parlour tricks to get you, the unwashed, to surrender your 401k’s and IRA’s to the market.

I got crushed today; but that’s okay. It’s part of the design.

Are you a lamb or a lion?

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