18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
This market is a proven thief and a rapist. It’s very nice to see futures up and TLT in the dirt this morning. However, let’s not pretend the game has been won. The market hasn’t even opened yet, so don’t celebrate wins that haven’t been realized.
Speaking of which: take those profits. Don’t pay attention to what anyone says, including me. When you’re up 10%+ on a short term investment, consider taking some coin off the table. For months, maybe even a year, this market has defecated on long term investors, and swing traders alike. Only the degenerate day trader has thrived.
That being said, I am in immediate need of a pornographic win. The small wins are for the rats, the sneaky creatures nibbling on the tip of the corn cob when no one is looking. “The Fly” eats the whole corn, not just the niblets.
Fuck 3-D printers and stay focused on where the winds are blowing, not just the wind.
The trade is stacked the other way. Everyone with a series 7 is short euros, oil and long treasuries. Those people are about to get their hands and feet chopped off.
I speak in violent tones because you people only understand the fist and the boot, savages from foreign lands, regular Mike Huckabees.
No one is giving oil a shot here, even ahead of the Forbes 400 billionaire February watermarking, something the Prince from Saudi Arabia has bribed and manipulated his own stock in order to get into a better position for. This list means nothing to you, slack-jawed Neanderthals, persons dragging knuckles atop the earth’s crust, unworthy of the very minimum levels of ‘respectable poverty’ (extra Ward McAllister). However, for big and powerful 100 pound men like Prince Alaweed (sp?), the Forbes 400 means everything.
All that aside, the driving season is ahead and the simplest bounce in the euro, coupled with a raging fucking rout in treasuries, will get oil going up to $58 by March. If that’s the case, I suspect shares of most small to mid capped oil companies will be 25% higher from current levels, if not more.
SLCA, as an example, is down 6% over the past week, while bedraggled illegal Mexican companies like SN are up 10%. Meanwhile, SLCA is a fucking cash generating machine.
With my money, I like SLCA, PEIX, DVN and ECR.
The downside to higher crude will inevitably mean airlines, restaurants and healthcare stocks trade lower for a bit. None of this shit makes any sense. But, lots of hot money has been toiling inside of hamburger stocks, as oil dropped lower. Should that trade end, those fucking hamburger bastards will check out and chase the shit I am selling.
All of this is very confusing, especially for new lads, fresh off the boats. Just know this: you have the best job in the world. All of your neighbors, stupid moron friends, and family members, are 100% retarded for not sitting in our illustrious ‘trading turrets’, bearing witness to such extravagance and splendor.
I have something for you to think about. With gasoline prices in the dumps and the US consumer rich as fuck, coupled with the newly minted Uber/Lyft oligarchies, I’d wager that Americans will “consume” more miles this driving season since the great ‘tank craze’ in Nazi Germany, circa 1945.
Having said that, I am already long gas station plays, such as MUSA and TA. However, now I am taking a direct approach to the heart of the margins: ethanol.
As a deranged liberal society, we destroy our food and place it into our cars as fuel. Over the past 3-4 months, the price of ethanol has collapsed, alongside oil and gasoline. However, supply is constrained, unlike the bastard oil sector. With the driving season approaching and Americans rich as fuck, “The Fly” has entered a new order into his computers, to be long of PEIX in winship terms.
Most people believed the market needed crude to trade higher, in order to get the market going. Crude is up almost 10% over the past two sessions, and the markets have been punched in the face–repeatedly. This isn’t a worldwide market issue, since european markets have easily outperformed us. This is an American problem, one that is likely transient and will resolve itself in time.
With oil catching a bid here and fuel prices super low, you’d have to be out of your fucking minds to initiate shorts now.
There is a tidal wave of buyers waiting in the shadows. Once those fuckers get flushed out of TLT, this market will take off.
How many different markets have we seen today? We got the morning bounce, the downside reversal, the upside surge, and now the anti-climatic give back. The market, for the time being, is undergoing price discovery. As a result, we are wading through a period of annoying volatility. If you’re watching every tick and trying to profit from the swings, you’re driving yourselves mad.
I am no longer interested in the intra-day ranges and will focus on weekly performance.
You’re trying to play the bounce in oil? Good. But don’t expect miracles on a daily basis.
German markets continue to outperform. The best way to play it this year is via new ETF HEWG, which hedges out the currency risk. If that ETF continues to attract new buyers, the parent company, WETF, should outperform as well.
For the moment, my #1 directional trade is to be long oil stocks. For the month of February, leading up to the driving season in March, there is tremendous opportunity in some of these beaten down names. But I can no longer watch them tick by tick.
Extend the time frames; stop adding cocaine to your morning coffee.
Why did the Seahawks decide to throw the ball at the half yard line instead of running it? It’s the same reason why bears stay short in the face of relentless central bank intervention: they were afraid to succeed.
Now that a proper team won the super bowl, after that ridiculous Seattle team snatched the title last year, the stock market may resume its 2013 ways and trend higher with uncontrollable fervor.
Some of you will disagree with my assessment, likely due to your allegiance to a NY foolsball team that happens to play in NJ, or you reside in a heathen part of the United States (any state that west of the Mississippi is considered “heathen” by most scholars, worldwide).
God bless the Patriots and let’s hope the bears get disemboweled tomorrow in a most horrendous fashion.
I swear to you I am a normal guy, running about the world in search of fortune. This market is making me fucking crazy. Not just ordinary crazy either, LUNATIC crazy without pause.
The market just melted the fuck down inside of 40 minutes. Oil sprang higher and everyone started celebrating, popping corks of champagne into each other’s faces–a grande old time, yes?
NO.
Now we get rubber bullets to the face. If the market was merciful, it would fire lead bullets and be done with us. Instead, we get impact wounds and limp on, hunchback of Notre Dame style, ashamed of what we’ve become.
I feel like a monster of sorts, craven and stark raving mad, playing a ruinous game out of choice, not necessity. I hope you appreciate my candor.
With oil up 7%, the market should be up 3%. Instead, we are banana peeling into the bell, setting up for calamitous disaster on monday.
Everyone shut the fuck up I have an announcement to make.
I BOUGHT MOAR SHARES OF SLCA, SN AND ECR.
If you like the bloggy, you’re gonna love my Twitter account, if you’re not already following me. Thanks to The PPT, I was able to make this prescient call last night.
