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Yearly Archives: 2018

Here’s Your Shopping List — You Ungrateful Malcontents

We’re only buy tech stocks — because those are the nerds who make us the most money. OilFAGS get beat down 8 months out of 12. Anyone who’d like to argue against that fact can go fuck themselves.

I don’t give a shit about futures or the fact that XYZ is already up 5,000% over the past 3 years — it’s going higher.

Here’s a simple enough screen for you Simons that displays the best tech stocks over the past month and the one’s that suffered the largest drawdowns today. What we want to do is watch them for upside reversals — get in — and then get the fuck out.

SAAS stocks are preferred, because it’s the Bernie Madoff of business — literally bullet proof. These companies didn’t slow down during the financial crisis; why would they slow down now? They’re using big data to drive sales inside high tech boiler rooms. Companies like HUBS, CRM, NEWR, and ZEN are making it easier to analyze and parse data for businesses to A/B test their ways into predictive and repeating streams of revenues that cannot be stopped — just like me.

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I DID IT AGAIN: THE BLACK IS RISING

Bet against me, fuck around, end up losing your house, wife, and kids.

Carbon Black beats by $0.29, reports revs in-line with preannouncement; guides Q2 above consensus; guides FY18 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus  (26.31 -0.69)
  • Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $0.98 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.29 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of ($1.27); revenues rose 34.8% year/year to $48.4 mln vs the $47.99 mln Capital IQ Consensus. Co preannounced rev of $47.5-48.0 mln in the IPO prospectus.
  • Ended the quarter with 4,006 total customers, up from 2,648 in the year-ago period and from 3,739 at the end of the previous quarter. Growth was driven by strong demand across the entire product portfolio and customer acquisition across a broad range of industries. Growth of customers who licensed at least one cloud product increased to 1,870 at the end of the first quarter, compared to 552 in the year-ago period and 1,605 at the end of the previous quarter.
  • Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of ($0.41-0.42) vs. ($0.43) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees Q2 revs of $48.5-49.0 mln vs. $48.21 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
  • Co issues upside guidance for FY18, sees EPS of ($1.32-1.35) vs. ($1.38) Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY18 revs of $203.0-204.5 mln vs. $202.01 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

Go ahead and tell me how I’m getting lucky.

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Momentum Stocks Take the Day Off — But I’m Still Winning

It would be nice to take the day off from winning. The saltiness of loss and is a flavor worth tasting, in order to truly enjoy the sweet taste of success. But I sacrifice for you, the unwashed reader pleb, winning — day in and day out — because I am selfless in that regard.

Case in point, early this morning I stepped in and bought some Shitspotter (SSTI) in the $33s and now it’s in the $36s and heading higher. Most of the high beta stocks are diving lower today. My Bubble Basket is off by 2% and many a high beta name is off by 4%, including my ZEN.

But I also have a position in PS and it’s bucking today’s trend and pressing higher. All in all, my losses are minimal — thanks to my smart positions.

The only sectors working today are in oil. If you’re trading high beta stocks — you’re not enjoying life right now. But have faith in knowing that losses in high growth areas of the market are temporary phenomenons, likely to dissipate within a day or two.

Find your favorite stocks. Put them on a watchlist. Buy them.

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BALLS OUT AND RUNNING HARD — NEW PICK ALERT

I bought SSTI here because of the MUH chart. Open air running here, nothing but net.

Gonna slide for a few. Top picks into another rally infused mood: CBLK, PS, PVTL and MDB for a late day upside reversal.

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I WILL NOT SELL ANYTHING AT A LOSS

Good morning lads,

It looks like my MDB earnings play is down a little in the pre-market, but up from my basis. I shall not be selling it today, unless it reverses and goes MONGO to the upside. The way I see it, I have so many irons in the fire that are stoking hot, I can afford a little set back in one name.

Early this morning, news hit the tape that the US came to terms with China over ZTE. This is good for semis and China stocks. Also, Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett want to put an end to earnings estimates. These fuckers are hogging out.

Futures are up, Europe is up, Oil is up, the dollar is down. Welcome to the new normal where no one loses, unless they had it coming to them.

Here are this morning’s movers.

 

Gapping up/down: CONN +21%, ZS +13%, COST +0.5% after earnings/comps, AVHI +26% after M&A news; SJM -8.5%, CLDR -7%, and THO -6.5% after earnings

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:

  • CONN +20.9%, FIVE +16%, ZS +13.4%, OKTA +5.3%, CMTL +4.4%, GEF +3.5%, ABM +3.5%, MTN +1.9%, CATO +1.5%, (May comps), SONC +1.5%, COST +0.5%, (May comps)

M&A news:

  • AVHI +25.8% (to be acquired by Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) for $21.50/share in cash & stock)
  • BR +4.2% (acquires MackayWilliams)
  • AFSI +3% (agrees to amended merger agreement with Evergreen Parent, consideration increased from $13.50/share in cash to $14.75/share in cash — Icahn Group agrees to support amended merger agreement)
  • TEUM +1.7% (to acquire Artilium plc for approximately $104.7 mln)
  • ENTG +1.5% (to acquire SAES Pure Gas Business for $355 mln)

Other news:

  • AXON +31.6% (continued momentum after yesterday’s 160% move higher)
  • ATHX +20.1% (to expand collaboration with HEALIOS K.K. into additional therapeutic areas)
  • OPHT +15.4% (enters into an exclusive global license agreement with the University of Florida Research Foundation and the University of Pennsylvania)
  • BHLB +6.6% (will replace Ollie’s in the S&P SmallCap 600)
  • FTV +4.1% (Fortive announces binding offer to acquire the Advanced Sterilization Products business from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) for approximately $2.7 bln in cash
  • CMRX +3.3% (received Orphan Drug Designation from the FDA forbrincidofovir as a treatment of smallpox)
  • HEAR +2.8% (announced new partnership with esports franchise Team Allegiance)
  • AGN +2.7% (on reports that Icahn is building stake)
  • REDU +2.5% (priced follow-on public offering of 7 mln American depositary shares by the selling shareholders at $14.75/ADS)
  • AABA +1.5% (commences tender offer to purchase up to 195 mln issued and outstanding shares of its common stock)
  • VKTX +1.2% (proposed public offering of common stock)
  • TRI +1.1% (to buy back up to an additional $1 bln of its shares under a new repurchase program)
  • VSH +0.9% (proposed offering of $525 mln convertible senior notes due 2025)
  • MRTX +0.9% (proposed public offering of common stock)

Analyst comments:

  • IMMU +1.9% (initiated with a Buy at B. Riley FBR)
  • SPOT +1.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Buckingham Research)
  • CSIQ +1.7% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan)
  • CMCSA +1.3% (resumed with a Buy at Jefferies)
  • DRI +0.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at SunTrust)

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • REVG -18.7%, AMSC -12.9%, SJM -8.5%, CLDR -6.9%, THO -6.5%, MDB -3.4%, UNFI -3.3%, FGP -1.9%

Other news:

  • PTI -28.6% (reports data from ongoing Phase 1 Study of PTI-801 in Cystic Fibrosis patients on background Orkambi therapy)
  • MDXG -24.5% (to restate series of historical financial statements, appoints interim CFO)
  • ESND -10.6% (following Genuine Parts’ S.P. Richards business merger update; notes Staples has not otherwise engaged in discussions with Essendant)
  • WGO -6.7% (following THO and REVG earnings/guidance)
  • ZYME -5.1% (prices underwritten public offering of 5.4 mln common shares at a price to the public of $15.75 per common share)
  • LCII -4.1% (following THO and REVG earnings/guidance)
  • DCPH -4.1% (prices underwritten public offering of 4.3 mln shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $40.00 per share)
  • CARO -2.9% (agreed to sell 1,500,000 shares of its common stock, and that certain of its executive officers and directors have agreed to sell 96,350 of their shares of the Company’s common stock, in an underwritten public offering)
  • OPTN -1.4% (prices offering of 5 mln shares of common stock by co and selling share holders at $22.25 per share)
  • JCP -1.1% (Moody’s downgrades J.C. Penney CFR to B2 from B1 reflecting continued weakness in op performance coupled with uncertainty in its strategic plan given the recent departure of its CEO)
  • CWH -1.1% (following THO and REVG earnings/guidance)
  • MB -1.1% (proposed private offering of $200 million of convertible senior notes due 2023)
  • FNHC -0.9% (files for $150,000,000 mixed securities shelf offering)
  • ETR -0.8% (registered underwritten offering of 13,289,037 shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $75.25 per share), .

Analyst comments:

  • TRUE -3.7% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman)
  • MT -3.1% (downgraded to Sell from Buy at UBS)
  • AAXN -2.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan)
  • FSLR -2.5% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman )
  • GHL -2.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette)

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GOING FULL RETARD INTO THE CLOSE — MONGO IN A CAGE STYLE

I’m long MDB and they’re reporting earning after the bell. If you followed me into this, then you’re long from $49. This is where you get off and enjoy the gains and celebrate the virility of Commodore Fly.

All those riding with me into this dangerous and potentially ruinous report should know the risks. Mongo is a caged animal and wants to bust loose. Will it happen or will the stock Gods deny me?

Tune in after the bell for the exciting conclusion.

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Come Here and Let Me Show You My Charts

All of this was pure luck. I just happened to be at the right place just at the right time. I take no credit, whatsoever, for these mountainous returns. Anyone could’ve done it — even a retard.

You didn’t actually think I’d post charts did you? We’re not infants here — no need have visuals to confirm what we already know; my stocks are fantastically higher. And guess what? They’re about to go higher.

Sure, I’m up ~13% on PS — chump change. And I’m riding MDB into earnings tonight, and PVTL is shooting higher, and CBLK is getting virile and looking rapish, and SHAK continues its sojourn into a world filled with unicorns and marshmallow clouds of cocaine.

I’ll sell when I’m good and ready. Shit is about to get MONGO to the upside.

The Dow is up nearly 300 and somehow I feel like we’re just getting started. This is what euphoria looks like. Remember these days good and well because the other side of this is apathy and bleakness — losses and fucking graveyards with assholes whistling by them.

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STILL WINNING

All of my stocks are up, some +3%, others +0.7%; but they’re all up.

Our Quant strategy in Exodus crushed it yesterday, up nearly 1%. What are you doing with your portfolios?

Yeah, I thought so. Keep charging 1% per annum for AUM and let’s see how long it takes for all of your clients to fire you.

I stepped in and bought PS this morning. $30 or die.

Tonight I’m riding MDB into earnings — 14x sales, wilding out with 40 ounces of malted liquor, spinning my wheels on the faces of so many enemies, across vast swaths of clay.

You’d be wise to not bet against me. I literally cannot be stopped.

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Fundraiser for the Family of Our Late Friend DMFRacer

A fellow trader of ours and avid participant inside Exodus, DMFRacer, recently passed, succumbed to cancer. I’ve never done this on the site and I’m not trying to shame any of you to donating money you don’t have; but I feel like we can make a difference in the lives of his children — a small kindness to offset all of the hurt they must be feeling now.

If you want to donate, David’s wife set up a Gofundme page here.

If anyone who didn’t know him from the site, I did a write up here when he passed.

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