Markets Are Overbought — Time to Get Even Longer

Listen to me now. Exodus is flagging overbought. This is our best signal that predicts higher stock prices over the next 10 trading days. I know the word “overbought” invokes risk aversion, but it shouldn’t. It simply means markets are hot and if recent history is of any use — it means we’re going higher.

Here’s the data.

For those unsuccessfully trying to access the Exodus free trials, we are working on fixing the logic in the system. At the present, it rejects anyone who’s registered, but I am changing that to anyone who hasn’t accessed system over past 6 months.

This fix should be in effect by today, latest Monday.

I just bought back EVBG. I sold that shit for profit weeks ago above $52. I bought it, in spite of the fact there’s weakness in the SAAS space because I wanted to prove something. You can bear witness to this, as I commit grave acts of blasphemy. The stock Gods are complete and utter trash. They are powerless relics who rely upon fear to garner respect. “The Fly” neither respects nor fears them. Instead, I piss on them and spit in their general direction, like a camel after a good long drink from a dirty pool of water.

I sold out of DOMO — cutting loose the last of my dogs. I made some bad bets, but I will make up for all of those mishaps, AND MORE, via a slew of recent buys.

Fuck the stock Gods and everything they stand for. I am my own man, built on my own merits, and no one can stop me. Call the police if you have to — I don’t give a fuck.

I haven’t the slightest idea what I’m doing in the oil pits. Every three months or so I try to trade oil and I always lose — so I’m sure this will end up in disaster too.

Nevertheless, I’m transparent and generous with my ideas, so I’ll post my buy here.

I BOUGHT WTI HERE BECAUSE FUCK THE CONSUMER. May the House of Saud reign for 10,000 years, and oil trade up to $5,000 per barrel in our life times.

I bought RNG for the break out.

Try to stop me — I’ll rip your tongue of from your mouth and kick you down a flight of stairs.

Many of the high growth SAAS names have been struggling to break out in recent weeks. There have been some pretty quick drawdowns in them and I feel like I’m pushing a boulder uphill instead of down. As such, I’ve decided to take some money off the table to reassess the market.

I sold CBLK for a 9% loss, HUBS +4%, SAIL +5% and ZEN +6%.

Since my quant account is killing it, up another 60bps for the day, I am in no urgent rush to throw money back into the market, although I did just buy ROKU. Look at the chart on ROKU — believe me — very beautiful.

Very soon ROKU will be running with its tits hanging out, in the fields, without a care in the world.

My other active trading positions are doing fine, including ZS, AGMH, BUD, PVTL, GIS, and MDB.

I will not let losses get bigger than small. No matter how much I like a stock, I will sell it if it’s underperforming. I will always look for new trends and try to spot them early. This is my struggle and I will be doing it here for the rest of my life.

It’s like a prison sentence, only that is makes me rich and affords me luxuries that most can never enjoy.

It looks like madness on the surface, Trump attacking the global supply chain via hard tariffs on China — but can it end up a net positive for trade? We’re all assuming this is nothing more than a tactic. What if Trump is crazy enough to keep this war going, and China doesn’t fold?

Dare I say, I’ll need to pay up for socks at Target?

But the Trump team has paid little heed to such warnings, with Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross this week slamming them as “premature and probably quite inaccurate.”

The US will levy a 25 percent tariff on more than 800 Chinese product categories, worth around $34 billion in annual imports, and has warned of more to come if China retaliates.

– Trump’s round two to follow –

Trump has threatened to progressively ratchet up US penalties to a total of $450 billion in goods, which would represent the lion’s share of all of China’s exports to the United States.

The tariffs target a broad spectrum of Chinese goods — such as passenger vehicles, radio transmitters, aircraft parts and computer hard drives — from industries Washington says have benefited from unfair trade practices.

A second tranche of 284 goods worth $16 billion a year is currently under review and could be added to the US list.

China is expected to retaliate as soon as the US tariffs go into effect, imposing duties on goods worth roughly the same amount but with a greater emphasis on politically sensitive agricultural products.

“The US has provoked this trade war. We do not want to fight it, but in order to safeguard the interests of the country and the people, we have no choice but to fight,” said China’s commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng.

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde already sounded the alarm about the cycle of retaliation, saying it would only create “losers on both sides.”

And Gao noted that of the $34 billion in taxable products on the US list, about $20 billion — or nearly two thirds — are made by firms with foreign investment, including a “significant portion” from America.

“The US’s measures are essentially attacking the global supply and value chain. Simply put, the US is opening fire on the whole world, and also firing at itself,” Gao said.

But Trump tweeted this week that the American economy is doing “perhaps better than ever” even “prior to fixing some of the worst and most unfair Trade Deals ever made by any country.”

And in New York, stocks shrugged off their persistent trade war jitters to post solid gains ahead of Friday’s highly anticipated employment report. The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.8 percent.

Under the banner of his “America First” policy, Trump has also targeted other traditional trade partners of the United States, such as Canada, the European Union, Japan and Mexico.

Prices are rising, especially for steel and aluminum, and companies are starting to feel reticent about investments or planning to shift production overseas to avoid retaliation against US exports.

There have been immediate job losses at America’s largest nail manufacturer, Mid-Continent Nail Corporation, due to rising steel prices amid warnings the company may have to shut down operations altogether.

In this day and age, if you’re still sifting thru thousands of charts per night, you should kill yourself. With the advent of modern technology, we at Exodus endeavor to save you time, which as you know is the most valuable commodity.

Many people are familiar with Sharpe ratios and I know you advisorFAGS live by it when discussing your bullshit “investment plans” to unsuspecting prospects. I’ve taken said ratio and power charged it in Exodus, in order to demonstrate progression. In other words, the Sharpe ratio is, more or less, a technical indicator. When using the 252, the annual and industry standard version, it is NOT sensitive to short term fluctuations in price. If you only live by it, you will miss out on trends.

In Exodus, we have a technical score, which is very short term, intra-day to 3 business days. It can show you what is trending and we measure the delta too, by way of “Hybrid Daily Change.” But the technical score will not show you rotation, which usually takes 1-2 weeks to notice. But, by tweaking the durations on the Sharpe, we can capture that shit, AND MORE. We can take note of progression — the subtle but consistent improvement or deterioration of the Sharpe score — indicative of rotation.

Have a look, fucked face.

Here is the Dow 30, a basket I created in Exodus. I sorted our shortest term Sharpe ratio from worst to best and GS made it to the top of the pack. It doesn’t mean GS is doomed, but only that the risk adjusted return is somewhat fucked as of late. If you’re curious in shorter term analysis, gawk at the technical score for improvement or perhaps a mean reversion. GS might become “oversold” and the system will pick up on that and provide users will backtesting data to make an informed decision.

Note the top short term Sharpe in the Dow is MRK and XOM.

Here’s a basket I created showing old man stocks that were underperforming in the bull market. That has changed in recent weeks, as it has handedly outperformed the market. Look at the bottom right for performance data. If you look closely at the Sharpe ratios from left to right, you will see the steady improvement in scores. Very soon, these scores will be positive and then SharpeFAGS will chase these stocks even higher.

Yes, you can try the platform for free — for 7 days. We are building in logic that will accept users who’ve tried the platform inside of the previous 6 months. If you’re blocked for some reason, email at Flybroker at gmail  and I’ll set you up.

I have no business buying a Chinese high beta stock into a rotation. Look at the fate of BILI club holders in recent weeks, absolutely harrowing. But I did so nonetheless.

If you try to stop me, I will rip your heart out from your body and eat it right in front of you as you drop dead.

Looking for a nice move to $25.

If you’ve been underperforming like a fool the past two weeks, it’s because you’re ill equipped to see the market. I see it and because of that I am long old man stocks, such as PG, HSY, GIS, and BUD.

Over the past two weeks, this basket of old man value stocks is higher by 2%, while the fag heavy Nasdaq was off by 1.5%.

This is rear view mirror talk, but will it continue?

I’d venture to say maybe a little, but long term, there is no future being a shareholder of PG. It’s dead money. Eventually, growth will be back in vogue. But for now, as junior mans the trading turret, safe value stocks are where the money is flowing.

I’ve been trying to find a trend, a rationale, for the underperformance in my software stocks and have concluded the reason is due to curse on me, specifically. Mostly everything is up, breadth at 70%, with large caps beating small caps by a comfy margin.

I have an old man section in my portfolio and that is doing wonderfully. Have a spy at GIS, HSY, PG, and BUD.

Within my tech holdings, SPOT, SAIL, MDB, ZEN, and HUBS are holding it together.

But at the bottom of my portfolio, the ass-end of it, is where you’ll find the curse: CBLK, DOMO, ZUO, PVTL, IIIV and ZS. The net result is me missing out on today’s rally — a heinous circumstance for a man in my position.

Bottom line: I cannot believe that I am missing out on this magnificent display of capitalism. Several of these stocks are close to be stopped out, at which point I will need to determine what to do in terms of philosophy. Reason being, I believe there is nothing better than the SAAS sector. It has demonstrated a repeatable (double entendre alert) process in producing high returns for investors. This small blip might be something reflected upon in the future as a buyable moment. However, as a player in the market and someone interested in minimizing losses, my job to manage risk supersedes emotional bias. After all, 75% fo my money is in a non-emotional quant strategy fund, managed by Exodus. This part of the portfolio is designed to be fast, catching trends, and booking fast gains AND losses.

If you care for the fate of Le Fly in the slightest, you will sacrifice a small animal to the Gods this evening, in order to break the curse being thrusted upon me.