Not Buying Anything, As Is My Constitutional Right

Everything was miserable for me today, even the taste of the coffee I made. My day was wholly ruined due to a tech malfunction at Exodus, which couldn’t be resolved because I’m in between techFAGS. I don’t want to drag any of you down into my brooding and black mood, but all is lost and buying into this horrible tape, into a miserable elections, can only lead to catastrophic results.

You’d be wise to step aside and go to cash, protect your almonds from the greatest ball busters of our time — politicians.

A GOP win means we will ravage China for the next two years. Stocks should clown punch lower.

A Democratic win might mean impeachment proceedings, risking the god damned tax cuts. Under that scenario, stocks will clown punch lower.

Either way, we clown punch lower.

I know this is a totally different take from yesterday, which makes me look partly or wholly insane, bio-polar or manic depressive. But I had a change of heart. I don’t know why — but I did. Truth is, we’re all pissing in the wind here, spitting balling it and hoping our piss doesn’t catch a breeze and spray back into our faces.

Whatever you decide to do, I wish you well. My money is scared, so it’ll remain indoors and protected by steel vaults.

I’m in a dreadfully sour mood this morning, partly because my bed is a piece of shit and very uncomfortable; but mainly because I’m, once again, having tech issues at Exodus.

It’s raining here in NJ and I hope everyone heading out to the polls slips and gets struck by lightening. I really don’t have an regard for the process of voting and what it brings with it, indecorous clown fuckers and shoe cobblers uniting to form clown cobblers.

Stocks are higher and I’m mad about that too. Whenever I think I’ve transcended into this zen person of unlimited patience, a day like today presents itself and I revert back to the guy who used to punch holes through his office sheetrock.

You can’t chase an +50 open on the Nasdaq and get away with it. It’s not often we get a slow burn upward throughout the day. Typically, you’ll get a big open, drift, and then one last power move towards the end of the day.

Go eat some sandwiches and avoid slipping on the wet concrete and getting stricken by lightening bolts.

Morning lads.

How do I start my day? I’m a very typical American hero. I usually start my day with a short stack of panned cakes, bacon, made by my own hand — black coffee and some classical music. I ferry the kids to school when they miss he bus and then I read the economic headlines for the morning and make a determination on how to trade the day’s news.

Today is the big faggot election parade, lots of noise and morons running around telling other people to vote. No thanks pal — there will be no voting in this household, as I view voting to be a waste of time and energy. Voting inside of a two party system is like only being able to trade FB or SNAP. Both stocks suck and I don’t want to trade them, so why are you forcing me?

FUCK OFF.

I am hoping the emotions of the day will cause people to sell due to uncertainty. We got some weakness in tech yesterday, but not enough. God willing, we can see a substantial sell off into the afternoon session and I can allocate maybe half of my 85% cash reserves.

Since the market is trading as a convoy now, I will likely opt for ETFs over stocks.

Pardon my vulgarity, I’m imbibed with an excess of Apple Jack after cooking pork Normandy for the past two hours. Fun fact, it was a George Washington favorite.

Here are stocks from my GARP screen (Growth at a reasonable price) that are down a lot over the past month. The purpose of this blog is to alert you to a discount in stocks that have great fundamentals. If you’re a bargain shopper, these stocks are for you.

Stock/ 1 mo return

ALGN -35%
GRUB -29%
OZK -28%
ATRO -25%
WTW -25%
SIVB -24%
MC -24%
SIMO -22%
CRS -22%
VLO -22%
NVDA -21%

Back to my apple’d jack.

I was going to buy today; but, admittedly, I missed out. Part of this is due to my schedule, as I am caring for my father in law during the day — taking him for treatment. It usually takes 1-2 hrs of my day and then there’s cooking, cleaning, and small details that consume much of my day. Since I work from home and my wife is out in the real world working, I’m the go-to person for taking care of the house.

Ten years ago I’d have a god damned aneurysm over it. When I managed money, I was a nervous wreck, always on edge and subject to wild mood swings. Now, I’m at peace and I think maturity has given me insight into how the world works and what to expect from people, so I rarely get mad. I put on a good act here for you animals, mainly because you’re animals. You really can’t help yourselves.

The market has rallied since the morning lows and I do not feel like chasing it. Plus, we won’t know the election results until tomorrow night, which gives us another day of potential selling.

I’m 85% cash, but 100% long in my quant and that’s doing just fine — higher by 0.77% today.

What are you looking for? Isn’t +0.77% per day awfully good?

I speak to some of you and really get concerned that you’re gonna blow yourselves to smithereens. Take it from someone who has made a fortune and lost it, several times over — quit gambling and focus on compounding returns.

The more I think about it, the more I want the democrats to take the house. First of all, don’t come to me with your political opinions about saving the republic. I don’t give a shit about that. I care about saving myself, family, and you guys.

Markets love, like really jerk off to, gridlock. It means nothing radical will happen and Washington will be crippled to reform. In other words, we’ll stay the course of a long term ruinous economic scheme, literally designed to crack asunder and plunge everyone into fire. But that’ll probably take another 50-75 years from now.

We have lots of wiggle room.

If republicans win, markets will likely go up.

If democrats win, markets will likely go up.

In other words, we probably can’t lose here, so then why am I so god damned risk averse now?

I think it has something to do with my recent gains, and now seeing those same stocks barrel lower. It’s having a psychological affect on me, making me feel the need to avoid being exposed. However, I should probably be doing the exact opposite of that now, shouldn’t I?

Lots of shorts are teeing up to be roasted tomorrow, getting into positions in anticipation of something happening.

WHO GIVES A SHIT?

I’ll tell you what. Let me eat something and have a strong cup of black coffee and mull it over for a few hours. I’ll get back to you with something later on today.

Here’s what I really think.

I think trading oil is very hard in the summer and fall and easier in the winter. I also think oil has zero momentum and is subject to too many geopolitical events, which make it ruinous to trade. I just sold out of the GUSH position I took last week, for a 3.2% gain.

While it felt good having something up with the market down, it was the right thing to do.

In my trading account, I’m now 85% cash. Luckily for me, my quant account is up 40bps today, totally immune to the sell off in the broader market.

As a point in fact, FAANG is lower by 2.5%, with the mega cap names getting crushed; but overall, the market isn’t too bad today. Breadth is 50%. Banks, commodities, and utilities are strong, mostly a defensive posture. It’s worth noting, old man stocks are higher by 1.2% today, as yields come in a little.

Bear in mind, higher bond yields compete against the old man dividend stocks. Whenever you get a break lower in yields, the PG and K’s of the world rally. If your base case is for lower yields, you should probably get long a basket of dividend payers, even some corporate and munis.

This is getting repetitive, isn’t it?

Tech stocks down; oil up.

I am 75% cash, with a 10% weighting in GUSH.

At the moment, it’s higher by nearly 9%. I’m sure there are reasons as to why it’s higher. Let’s keep it simple: it’s an oversold bounce and I happen to be at the right place at the right time.

Overall, markets look poor.

Last year this time the world was immersed in the glory of the bitcoin. Everyone I knew was tossing income into this great new investment vehicle, chiding me with their fat faces filled with glee because I stood firm in the belief that it was all a rotten scam and instead favored stocks. Back in my hometown of Brooklyn, the corner stores had dollar for bitcoin conversion machines at criminal mark ups. And people I met at cocktail parties all had an interest. One lad I met had recently left a plush job at Goldman Sachs in order to open up a mining operation in Bushwick, Brooklyn.

It was all a god damned hoax and that trick was made comical by the meme pushed hard by late comer idiots, “HODL”. They wanted to “Hold Onto Dear Life”, selling out of their stocks, bonds, even selling their homes, because Bitcoin was going to change the world and the way we did business.

The only thing that changed was the speed at which idiots lost money. From top to present value, losses stand at a staggering $600 billion.

What was the crypto space, now with the benefit of hindsight?

It was a honey pot designed to attract the rebels in our society, the men and women clad in burlap’d dinner jackets hoping the Federal Reserve would catch fire by an arsonist and the entire model of western finance burn to a deep, crisp, cinder. All of those people were lured into an investment vehicle and then said vehicle crashed into a wall made from stone, killing everyone — no survivors.

The Hang Seng is down more than 500 points this evening, as Chinese related shares get routed. There isn’t a trade deal on the books and Trump might get himself impeached, should the dems snatch his weave on Tuesday.

Dow futures are -90 and WTI is off by nearly 1%.

This is precisely why I’m 75% cash and supremely positioned to buy dips. You’d have to be an absolute jackass to buy stocks ahead of the mid-term elections. Too much noise. Too much drama.

If you’re following along, tomorrow we will cavort and sashay in Exodus and behave like the distinguished gents we are. Perhaps we’ll drink some claret, or maybe something a little stronger, like a port. Either way, tomorrow I expect to do nothing at all. I bought some smoked salmon this evening and will be eating it tomorrow, alongside some really good toasted bread and a squeeze of lemon and olive oil.

“The Fly” is a man of modest needs, but mammoth desires. You’d be wise not to bet against him for any extended period of time, else end up on the receiving end of a massive clawhammer, magnum class, to the fucking face.

Nite