This is for you Goldman Ballsachsers out there who’ve never trade thru a bear market, silly, stupid, boys — permanently bullish and everlastingly corrupted by the vampire squid.
Back in 2008, the market collapse didn’t happen, in earnest, until September. From the onset of fall thru early 2009, the Nasdaq was annihilated by 50%. Presently, the market is off by 20% over the past 3 months, and people are already clamoring for more.
Admittedly, the negativity is infectious and I’d like to believe hell itself is about to crack open in Kansas somewhere and suck the United States inward. Truth is, this is more like 2011, when Europe was on the verge of collapse and their banks needed to be bailed out by Germany. All we’re pricing in now is an economic downturn, political instability, and China trade war.
Do stocks deserve to crank lower as if Lehman had just collapsed? What the fuck has actually transpired, aside from future prospects of high yield chicanery and a spike in unemployment?
Nothing.
I present to you the FAGBOX, circa 2011 and today’s box.
Today
I traded with trepidation the week before last due to the fact we were meandering at the bottom of that range. I knew if we broke lower, pandemonium would break loose and it did. But that’s all there is to it, the ebb and flow of greed and fear. Weak hands getting washed out because the earth required their blood. Eventually, this stabilizes, chops around in a new box, and then breaks higher.
I’d look for a 10%+ jump in the Nasdaq during January. The only thing that stops it is actual news of credit seizing up and/or more Trump uncertainty. But on the political stuff, that would set up a sublime bottom, as the American economy is bigger and stronger than any one person.
Stocks to buy vary between FAANG and hardest hit, like the oils. If we continue lower, just about every major facet of the market has already done a ‘death cross’, with exception to the REITs. My favorite short now is to be long DRV.
Back to last minute Xmas shopping.
NOTE: I have 3 hours left in The Capstone Programme, until someone cancels. Book and appointment today and be taught what you need to be told.
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Yeah, look for a bounce… Ideally speaking, futures crap to oblivion till Monday morning and all of a sudden Jesus shows up.
But your “Nothing” assessment is perhaps a little pollyannaish.
The indictments of the Trumps (plural) and the subsequent firing of Mueller are un-quantifiable political risks, among many.
Don’t forget that almost nobody (except Condi Rice et al.) expected 9/11 to unravel the way it did as of the morning of 9/11/2001.
Another thing…
The 2011 crash was about the debt ceiling of the United States government. Stocks suffered further losses in the following days (and months) despite the Republican-controlled House of Representatives relenting in early August.
Your own coverage of the debt ceiling as of 07/29/2011:
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2011/07/29/dramatic-rally-is-right-around-the-corner/
It’s both. Your encroaching-coup against 45.
& The roundup of deepstate and clintons.
It’s a game of chicken. I titled and described it as a
Game of Chicken in March 2017, that’s 21 months ago
It was a primary narrative, I think that’s been shown, I believed
indexes were a part of it and nearing convergence here, It probably was
To those who aren’t into conspiracies, it’s as simple as Trump barely winning the election against the least electable Democratic candidate and now the “Deep State” finally having to confront the voluminous felonious records of the Trump family due to public pressure.
Public pressure is manufactured by the deep state …not the other way around. Yeesh!
Again, I do understand that this channel is full of Trump lovers (myself included for different reasons) but your “innocent until proven guilty” responses won’t keep the felonies from being exposed.
Most of America don’t idolize Trump like you do, grandpa.
I’m looking to trade the OIH etf (oil services etf) as the selling has been ferocious in this sector and is at or near all time lows with some former industry leaders looking to go bust (see WFT). A few more days of selling for tax loss and then it could be ready for a sharp move up. Looking for a trade in my IRA for 12/31 and the first couple of trading days of 2019 (and then out). Just like 1989 (for the industry, the OIH did not exist of course), I believe.
2 things im looking for
Containment or non containment of vix
If the hidden hand clearly appears
(February 2016 for example)
with a crisis curbing pivot
the perfect-w on spy from Oct 15-Dec 1 is indeed faggy
The 5 trading days before Christmas in 2008 (one a partial) was up 4.5%. Mnuchin (mail order barbie wife) might throw a spanner into the works for the 24th with this pre TARP 2.0 meeting he called with the major banks though.
Fly, you need to include the 400 day moving average in your charts. If you put up the 400 day (I use EMA) you will see it tracks the bottom of the FAGbox in exactly the same way as the 200 day tracks the top.
So when prices broke through the 400 day, you knew for certain this market was broken.
Also the 400 day moving average is now not sloping upward any more.