iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
17,433 Blog Posts

CPI DATA COMES IN HOT; WELCOME TO THE VALENTINE’S DAY MASSACRE

Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

January CPI Y/Y +2.1%, Core CPI Y/Y +1.8% (Core had been running between 1.7-1.8% the past eight months)

Futures went from +125 to -300, all thanks to hotter than expected inflation data.

The Valentine’s Day massacre is upon you. Enjoy your day.

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28 comments

  1. Lyndon Keltner

    Well, that didn’t last.

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  2. roundwego

    Now the avalanche of passive investors will trigger sells. Blood letting time.

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  3. soonerxii

    Is this good or bad for gold? I don’t even know anymore

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  4. Lyndon Keltner

    This kind of big league volatility wouldn’t have come this early if Trump and his minions knew anything about economics and economic policy (i.e., how not to overheat a full-employment economy that their predecessors passed onto them).

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  5. sarcrilege

    LOL. Nice shibboleths. Hotter than expected inflation. Record number of retail and specs have been shorting treasuries expecting an economic lift-off betting to extremes on “reflation”, yet prices aren’t budging. In UST futures specs are at record shorts betting on inflation and rising policy rates and still the 10-year UST yield is below 3% rather than already closer to 4%.
    The next big move in interest rates is down, girls, way down. Tits will be ripped off, cunoles torn and assholes cleavaged.

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    • ferd

      Ha. Are you an ubercynic or not? Do you think that when you and I get data, is when everyone else gets data?

      Anyway, the trend in bonds and the dollar remains lower ..regardless of how they react in the moments after a public announcement.

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      • sarcrilege

        I’ll let you in on a secret. This is a global play, not domestic. All those large boolish hedge funds peddling ‘growth’ are doing the opposite – building a yuge short position against europe/asia. When these shitholes implode (and they will. soon.) UST will look like a safe heaven and global capital will move here, crushing yields just to get in.
        https://tinyurl.com/yahrvhrm

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        • ferd

          Who knows. Maybe it plays out that way. But for now …and since Trump went full neocon swamp creature with his new budget, the trend for the dollar and bonds has been down.

          USD cash is trash is in full play today with dollar down, bonds down, stuffs up, and stocks up with the Russell outperforming.

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  6. roundwego

    Equities down,bonds down. Dollar up. Fear time uvxy.

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  7. roundwego

    Add tza

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  8. fryguy15

    My grocery bill says consumer prices have been increasing for years. CPI must be something else.

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    • roundwego

      Everything is fake. During deflation packages get bigger, during inflation packages get smaller. Same price less ice cream and less hot dogs and supersize is gone. Also oil went from 30-40 last year to 60.

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      • numbersgame

        People often get confused with magnitude and rate-of-change. Food prices move in jerks upwards, and often establish a new level, and they stay at that higher level. It **feels** like the price is *still* rising, but in reality, it is just high and never dropped.

        Case in point: Breyers changed their ice cream package size almost 10 years ago. It still feels expensive because it was at the 1/2 gallon size for probably 50 years. However, the price now is bascailly the same as 2009.

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    • boyaj

      Remember, CPI is ex food and energy. You must only be looking at core (insert sarcasm). It’s laughable that they remove two of the most expensive I pay for; they might as well remove healthcare costs too.

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    • numbersgame

      I can’t believe that even the commenters on a financial blog are so clueless. Is it really that difficult for you guys to google “CPI”? Or maybe ignorance is truly bliss.

      Anyway, the headline CPI does ***NOT*** exclude food and energy. That reading is secondary. Food and energy prices are volatile (that means they change a lot), so a month-to-month reading of CPI will not tell you much.

      If you really want to get a handle on CPI, you should look at the “CPI” year-to-year change and “CPI ex. food and energy” month-to-month change.

      So here is the actual data from the press release:

      From Paragraph 1 (headline reading):
      “Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent”

      From Paragraph 3 (secondary reading):
      “The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.3 percent in January.”

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  9. indie

    $OLED baby come on! wow.
    $FOSL you so nice. Huge!
    No homo obama painting sperm like.

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  10. Cricket

    How do you get out from under a debt mountain? Growth + Inflation.

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  11. metalleg

    These markets are programmed, plain and simple. You fool yourselves thinking that news or data matters. They need to keep stock prices inflated to keep pensions from imploding. Keep the masses at bay and everything will be alright. Until the wheels really come off.

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    • oilerua

      wheels do not come off .
      ai + wheel is in to stay + multiple protections .

      the market will need a lot of corrections ( more ) to keep it going .

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  12. oilerua

    rofl
    it’s a fight between him and raul on who succeed in being strategically more times wrong

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  13. Lyndon Keltner

    Copper at 3.21. Good enough to start a short position right here.

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  14. moonshot

    It’s a retest of the correction. Calm down.

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