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Yearly Archives: 2017

“The Fly” Is Going on a ‘Hunting Expedition’ and You’re All Invited

I just got out of the shower, after languishing on the couch for a few hours, watching my eldest play a video game. He’s actually playing Romance of the Three Kingdoms, part IX — a game I used to play 15 years ago. I never got into the shooter games, aside from a brief period whence I took to the Halo game with my gravity hammer. As a young boy and man child in my 20s, I preferred strategy games. That’s how my mind works.

Speaking of which, I’ve decided to start investing with my balls again — setting up a small personal fund to partake in grand exhibitions like we used to do around these parts. Truth be told, every since I quit managing money, emotionally, I haven’t been obsessed with stocks like I used to. Many of you shitheads out there know it and have called me out on it. After 20 years in the business of killing myself trading stocks, losing my hair and my fucking sanity, I needed a respite.

I’ll still do the Exodus inspired automated portfolio management on a weekly basis. Quit frankly, that’s the future of our business and you know it. Alas, I need to have a little fun in this market place, with spirit. Fall is coming and Trump is a god damned animal driving a train, heading for a brick wall filled with plutonium. I want to partake in the volatility on a level that will satisfy my savage desires.

How would this new approach look?

I’m thinking along the lines of swing trading, maybe some day trades, based off news and good olde intuition. I cannot recreate the magic we once had here again — but I can certainly provide enough testosterone infused lambasting that will create new memories of when we were middled aged and stupid and made fun of CEOs and then shorted their stocks. Perhaps we will make fun of Bill Ackman again and go long his shorts, or even write open letters to some fucktard executive who dares to get in our way of greatness.

All are invited to this new chapter, even my friends in ANTIFA.

What I expect from you are ideas. Give me your best stories. I will look into them and maybe act upon the advice provided to me by the shadows in my urinal (inside joke for old schoolers).

For starters, I am thinking about buying FIZZ. Why? Well, I hate FIZZ because I missed out on the whole La Croix nonsense and it makes me mad every time I see their cans littering my stores. Therefore, the correct play here would be to go Constanza, the exact opposite of what I want to do, and then chide Coca Cola and Pepsi into acquiring the company — calling out their shit-cans filled with junk and how FIZZ is superior to them on every level imaginable. To be sincere with you here, both KO and PEP dropped the ball BIG TIME by not buying MNST years ago. If they miss out on FIZZ, their C-level executives should all be executed in the public square.

Goodnite.

 

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Thank God the Summer Is Ending: Back to Work

I spent the weekend entertaining my sister and nephew, sauntering about town, partaking in gross levels of hedonism — eating and drinking, quite superficially, and laughing in a very capricious manner. So you know, “The Fly” doesn’t like to laugh — he merely chuckles, vaguely, and only when it’s suitable to put down his smoking pipe.

Dinner was served in Brooklyn, NY tonight, in a locale reminiscent of the bar featured in Goodfellas, festooned with relics of yesterday, older Italian men drinking espresso with coffee beans in it, lemon peels, and ample amounts of Sambucca. Having been raised in an Italian household, mainly by my grandfather, this was a very familiar scene for me — harkening to a day when men would open Johnny pumps in the street so that kids could cool off in the summer heat.

My nephew, ironically, noticed the lack of gender neutral bathrooms at this establishment, suggesting that perhaps it was a ‘regressive’ place filled with ‘white supremacists.’

Labor Day is upon us and it has been a long summer of nothingness, shit talking, and gratuitous comedy by fucktards in the comments section. Need I remind you little shits, you’re not the counter-culture, but whores of Babylon, mind-controlled cogs in the wheel of evil that will be cracked asunder, under the weight of freedom?

Yes, indeud — your day of reckoning is coming and when it does, I will be presiding over your dead body, dousing your corpse with gasoline — tossing matches at your recalcitrant face.

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Trump Threatens to Stop ‘All Trade’ With Countries ‘Doing Business with North Korea’

Following up with N. Korea’s alleged hydrogen bomb test, President Trump tweeted he was conferring with General Mattis and contemplating ‘stopping all trade’ with countries doing business with N. Korea.

According to recent statistics by the OEC, N. Korea’s main export is coal. Their top trading partners are China ($2.34b) and India ($93m).

Their top import partners are China ($2.95b), India ($108m), Russia ($78m) Thailand ($73m) and Philippines ($53m).

Clearly, this is Trump menacing China again. Thus far, he’s been unsuccessful in addressing China’s rapery of the United States in trade, so he’s moving the issue over to national security. Last year, the United States recorded $462b in imports with China and only $115b in exports, producing a trade deficit of $347b. Naturally, much of the deficit were the result of US companies producing goods cheaply overseas and then importing them back into the US, a la Apple.

In the past, a statement like this from the President of the United States would have a profound effect on markets. However, with Trump, this will likely fall under the category ‘the boy who cried wolf’, sending markets to new record highs.

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Here Are the Top Growth Stocks for 2017 by Sector

I like doing these audits because it provides me with a bird’s eye view of what is going on in the market. The criteria for this screen is as follows: market cap above $250m, quarterly revenue growth above 15%, YTD return above 20%, sorted by sector.

Here it is, courtesy of Exodus.

Basic Materials
CENX, TROX, ACH, KRO, IAG
Consumer Goods
FIZZ, TSLA, IRBT, SAFM, ROG
Financials
TREE, GDOT, SQ, GGAL, BMA
Healthcare
AVEO, SGMO, KITE, IMGN, PIRS
Since healthcare is sketchy, filled with biotech dreams, I curated another screen for you to only include companies that are EPS positive. My generosity is without boundaries.
Healthcare (EPS positive)
OSUR, CORT, CUTR, VRTX, EXEL
Industrial Goods
BLDP, JKS, AVAV, NVMI, STRL
Services
CAI, GOL, HLG, EVI, HTHT
Technology
KEM, UPLD, SHOP, ATHM, AAOI
Utilities
TGS, PEGI, CPN, VVC, EDN

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Kelly Looks to Oust Omarosa from White House for TRIGGERING Trump with News

The head leaker in chief at the NY Times, beneficiary of her father’s 40 yr career at the paper, Maggie Haberman reported yesterday that Trump and his new chief of staff, John Kelly, are grinding each other’s gears — citing an incident where the President publicly humiliated Kelly in front of staff.

Source: NY Times

President Trump was in an especially ornery mood after staff members gently suggested he refrain from injecting politics into day-to-day issues of governing after last month’s raucous rally in Arizona, and he responded by lashing out at the most senior aide in his presence.

It happened to be his new chief of staff, John F. Kelly.

Mr. Kelly, the former Marine general brought in five weeks ago as the successor to Reince Priebus, reacted calmly, but he later told other White House staff members that he had never been spoken to like that during 35 years of serving his country. In the future, he said, he would not abide such treatment, according to three people familiar with the exchange.

Haberman hemmed and hawed through a garrulous article, filled with gossip and innuendo, extolling the many virtues of John Kelly, even suggesting that he and Mattis were trying, desperately, to keep transgenders inside the military, ‘slow walking’ Trump through the process.

Mr. Kelly is close to Mr. Mattis and supported the Pentagon’s decision to slow-walk Mr. Trump’s order to ban transgender troops from serving in the military, opting for the creation of a panel to study the matter before implementing a policy that is highly popular with the president’s conservative base.

She concluded the column, loyal to her chimerical bias against the President, pejoratively stating: “But one associate who spoke to Mr. Kelly last month said the former commander had remarked that his current assignment was by far the hardest job he had ever had. His favorite gig, he jokes, was his first: Marine grunt.”

This all ties in nicely with the Daily Beast’s “breaking story” today, saying Omarosa Manigault is the next one to be dismissed by Kelly. Her crime: providing the President with negative news articles that would ‘trigger’ him and make him go crazy around the White House, throwing Oscar in the trashcan tirades — which haven’t served the President’s best interests.

Source: Daily Beast

Multiple sources in and outside the Trump White House told The Daily Beast that, until recently, it was common practice for aides to slide into the Oval Office and distract and infuriate the president with pieces of negative news coverage. Manigault, they say, was one of the worst offenders.

“When Gen. Kelly is talking about clamping down on access to the Oval, she’s patient zero,” a source close to the Trump administration said.

The stories Manigault would present to Trump, often on a phone or printed out, would often enrage the president, and resulted in him spending at least the rest of the day fuming about it. For example, one White House source noted that Manigault was one of the people who would bring to President Trump’s attention online articles concerning MSNBC hosts, and former Trump pals, Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski “slagging him, and his administration.”

This contributed, at least in small part, to the president’s mounting rage against the MSNBC couple, which exploded in late June when Trump attacked them and tweeted that, among other things, Brzezinski “was bleeding badly from a face-lift.”

To understand why Kelly would want to isolate the President you first have to understand who he keeps company with, a small group of people and at the meridian of that group is former Obama defense secretary, Leon Panetta. It’s becoming exceedingly difficult to give the President a pass for alleged ‘deep state’ swampers, when in fact he’s the one who’s hiring them.

More from the satanic online news rag:

Kelly “is not thrilled by any means by [Manigault],” a West Wing official told The Daily Beast. “He is, however, thrilled that he has been able to stop staffers including Omarosa from bolting into the Oval Office and triggering the president with White House [palace] intrigue stories.”

Of particular concern for Kelly were stories from conspiratorial right-wing websites that occasionally whipped Trump into a frenzy over issues such as the West Wing’s press leak problem. In Manigault’s case, sources said, the stories generally originated at more obscure, gossipy websites, and concerned White House palace intrigue, media personalities, or prominent Republicans in Congress.

Ever since Kelly instituted the new regime, Trump’s former reality-TV co-star’s capacity to influence her boss during the work day has taken a hit.

“She’s not happy about it,” another White House source said. “She has a bond that goes back years with [Trump] and resents being cut off like everyone has.”

To be sure, the president still uses his private cellphone to speak with and solicit advice from a small inner circle of longtime aides and friends, Manigault among them. Though Kelly has sought to limit and streamline the pipeline of information into the Oval Office, there’s not much he can do about the president’s penchant for calling up his closest advisers, even at odd hours, once his staffers depart for the evening.

As Kelly has clamped down on the information that reaches the president through official channels, Trump’s inner circle has increasingly reverted to phone calls with the president directly. The sense is that Kelly is essentially powerless to block Trump off from a coterie of friends and allies that predate the White House by years.

This story is indeed rich with irony, with The Daily Beast attempting to sockdolager the President’s access to ‘gossipy’ websites, when in fact the entire report is kitschy coffee talk. The foreboding winds that sweep in and around Trump are festooned with cheap regalia, harkening back to an era when parvenus beer swillers would profit from the power exerted out of DC. Now that their vainglorious schemes have been upbraided, they’ve resorted to Wagnerian styled outbursts — tangentially scattered about like children commiserating in a lonely and sad room for having their toys taken away.

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August ISM Data Suggests U.S. GDP Growth Might Hit 4%

Remember when critics lambasted Trump for daring to forecast 3%+ GDP growth?

Yeah, those people just got eternally beatdown.

Second quarter GDP was revised up to 3%. The only thing the left could do is peddle out Warren Buffett, a person who has never said a bad thing about the US economy ever, to say ‘it doesn’t feel like a 3% economy.’

Here’s Warren telling America that it ‘feels’ like a 2% economy. Moreover, he tries to convince people into accepting such anemic growth as not only acceptable, but exemplary. Bear in mind, 2% growth doesn’t keep up with inflation, which is now clocking in at 2.6%.

Really?

If Warren thinks this ‘doesn’t feel’ like a 3% economy, I wonder what he’ll say when it registers in at 4%? According to today’s ISM data, that’s exactly where it might be heading.

Source: CNBC

President Donald Trump’s hopes for growth as high as 4 percent may come true, if only for one quarter.

An economic report released Friday morning, and overshadowed by the higher-profile nonfarm payrolls number, actually points to GDP gains in excess of 4 percent in the third quarter, said Andrew Hunter, U.S. economist at Capital Economics, as the firm showed in this chart:

The ISM data came in at 58.8, the highest reading since 2011. It even caught the evergreen bear, Rick Santelli, off guard this morning.

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Establishment Turns on ANTIFA; It’s Now Quite Fashionable to Condemn Them

In the September issue of The Atlantic, the cosmopolitan political magazine for globalist elites, the topic of ANTIFA was broached. I wouldn’t call their assessment of the alt-left group a rebuke, but instead a mild chastising.

Antifa believes it is pursuing the opposite of authoritarianism. Many of its activists oppose the very notion of a centralized state. But in the name of protecting the vulnerable, antifascists have granted themselves the authority to decide which Americans may publicly assemble and which may not. That authority rests on no democratic foundation. Unlike the politicians they revile, the men and women of antifa cannot be voted out of office. Generally, they don’t even disclose their names.

Antifa’s perceived legitimacy is inversely correlated with the government’s. Which is why, in the Trump era, the movement is growing like never before. As the president derides and subverts liberal-democratic norms, progressives face a choice. They can recommit to the rules of fair play, and try to limit the president’s corrosive effect, though they will often fail. Or they can, in revulsion or fear or righteous rage, try to deny racists and Trump supporters their political rights. From Middlebury to Berkeley to Portland, the latter approach is on the rise, especially among young people.

Revulsion, fear, and rage are understandable. But one thing is clear. The people preventing Republicans from safely assembling on the streets of Portland may consider themselves fierce opponents of the authoritarianism growing on the American right. In truth, however, they are its unlikeliest allies.

After the events in Berkeley this past weekend, where ANTIFA thugs went haywire, beating Trump supporters up for sport, support for the violent leftist group plunged.

Now we’re seeing widespread condemnation from both the media and establishment hacks, deep state troglodytes and politicians alike. Clearly, someone pulled the plug on ANTIFA. Perhaps an important think tank did some proprietary polling and concluded the risk-reward analysis wasn’t worth shilling for them anymore, especially in light of the events in Texas. Back in June, Trump supporter and advocate, Jack Posobiec, wondered why CNN didn’t even acknowledge the group’s existence.

Here’s a brief rundown of some of the recent remarks. Bear in mind, about a fortnight ago, the media and a whole slew of politicians, on both the right and the left, condemned President Trump for criticizing ANTIFA. Both Marco Rubio and Mitt Romney praised the group as being ‘anti-fascist.’
Remember this?

The worm has turned.

The Morning Shill got the go ahead to condemn the masked marauders.

Apparently, some didn’t get the memo.

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Closed Out the Week in Line with SPY — Reduced Both Bond and Gold Exposure

I reduced both GLD and TLT by half. Both ‘risk off’ positions now constitute 10% of my overall holdings. Because small cap outperformed all other market caps, my allocation this week was to the $1-5b market cap, spread out across all of the major industries. The goal here is to trend with the market, positioning in the very best growth stocks, but keeping protective hedges in place in the form of risk off assets when they do better than equities.

Get it?

If GLD or TLT are doing better than stocks for the week, I up my allocation by 5% per week and vice versa.

For the week, I trended with the SPY, up around 1.25%. That might not sound like much, but annualize that and you’ll begin to see why I am doing this.

Here were some of my winners.

GLD $122.18 to $125.66

RGLD $89.12 to  $92.89

ODFL $95.86 to $99.64

IPGP $166.82 to $174.92

CGNX $103.08 to $108.61

ABMD $147.90 to $150.80

This week, I’m positioned in a much more aggressive market cap, but I have a few utes in there that might slow down the beta. I do, however, have 10% more allocated to equities, so that will play a factor too. All in all, I cannot be more content with my performance and do not miss the hazards of position swing trading, which had caused me endless grief and agony, long nights of sleepless cold sweats.

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Welcome to September, Historically the Worst Month of the Year for Stocks

Well, you made it through the summer lads. Now it’s winter and very soon the trees will be turning colors and my favorite season of the year will be upon us all. But before that happens, before the Turkey Gods come to visit us in late November, first you’ll need to get past September — a month forged in hell, designed to crack weak kneed investors asunder.

Let us have a look at the seasonal trends for both the SPY and QQQ over the years.

QQQ

SPY

Scared yet?

Well you should be. According to these stats, the Nasdaq stands to lose 1.6% for the month of September, by far the worst month of the year for stocks. We’re heading into the month at record amidst, zero volatility, bedraggled with a President at odds with everyone else in government, unable to get anything done.

Perhaps that’s a good thing, the status quo theory. After all, our debt could double from current levels and still not be as bad as Japan’s. Theoretically, we could comport ourselves on this same ruinous path for several more decades without having to change anything at all. Sure, the poor will suffer and the middle class will bleed out; but who really cares about them anyway? It’s a misnomer to believe the middle class is important for the economy to perform. They’re becoming more meaningless with each passing day.

Oh, you think I’m fucking with you? I’m not fucking with you.

I’ll be making my weekly adjustments in my portfolio soon, something I do in Exodus on each Friday. I’ve been very low profile with my picks this year, which is the whole point. Whilst others attempt to capture lightning in the bottle, becoming gazillionaires with each pick, I endeavor to just crush the S&P 500 each and every week, without the drama, without the beta. Thus far, I’ve been doing an excellent job. I do not post my annual returns anymore, because it’s a meaningless stat if I cannot back it up with a legit audit. Just know, I am crushing the SPY this year and have done so without breaking a sweat.

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Amateur Musician, Roger McNamee, Says Bitcoin is in a Bubble

McNamee, founder of the small traveling band dubbed Flying Other Brothers, was interviewed by Bloomberg today about the future of bitcoin and the blockchain, to which he flatly stated that it was in a bubble.

When asked about the long term viability of the cryptocurrency, McNamee said it was ‘too early to tell.’

Aside from his musical career, McNamee was an early investor in Facebook, former co founder of Silverlake Partners and now runs a small boutique hedge fund named Elevation Partners.

In related news, Fuck Token is down 8% today, reducing its market cap to just $2.3m.

The entire market cap of the cryptocurrency market, including Fuck Token, now stands at $172 billion.

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