Valeant Surges After Reporting Positive Phase 3 Results for Psoriasis Drug

Is there a more hated drug stock in the world than $VRX?

This is easily the very worst major drug stock out there, with all sorts of headwinds. By all accounts, it appears the company is heading towards a watery grave. However, in the interim, there is opportunity for short squeezes, especially after reporting good clinical data.

Valeant Pharma announces ‘positive’ results from a second confirmatory pivotal Phase 3 study to assess the safety and efficacy of IDP-118 lotion in the treatment of plaque psoriasis

Within the Phase 3 study of 203 adult subjects with moderate to severe psoriasis, IDP-118 showed statistical significance (p < 0.001) to vehicle with a treatment success rate at 8 weeks of 35.76% to 6.98%. The primary endpoint of the 12-week study (8 weeks of treatment followed by 4 weeks of follow-up) was achievement of a “clear” to “almost clear” score and at least a 2 grade improvement based on an Investigator Global Assessment (IGA) at 8 weeks, and clear to almost clear and at least 2 grade improvement in the IGA at weeks 12, 6, 4 and 2 as secondary endpoints.

Shares are soaring early on. I expect the stock to continue higher, maybe even causing a buying frenzy — somewhat dependent on the overall health of the biotech sector, which has been good as of late.

If it appears that Chipotle is circling the toilet bowl, following a horrendous year of declining comps and wasteful sharebuybacks, it’s because they are.

The deleterious affects of poisoning your patrons without ever resolving the root cause of the problem is taking a toll on the burrito maker. They’re slashing earnings by nearly 50% for Q4, reducing revenue expectations, but increasing their share buyback program by $100m to total $2.1b per date.

Sees Q4 EPS $0.50-0.58 vs $0.98 Capital IQ Consensus; revs $1.035 bln vs $1.05 bln Capital IQ Consensus; comps -4.8% vs. ests near -3.5%.

Comparable restaurant sales for the quarter decreased 4.8%, which includes the benefit of 0.5% related to previously deferred revenue that was recognized in the fourth quarter. Comparable restaurant sales decreased 20.2% in October 2016, decreased 1.4% in November 2016, and increased 14.7% in December 2016. Sales comparisons are lapping an easier compare due to lower sales levels in November and December 2015.

Operating margin 13-14%. “During the quarter we incurred higher expenses compared to our originally-forecasted amounts in other operating costs, driven by increased promotional spend and costs related to testing television advertising. Our marketing and promotional expenses during the quarter totaled ~4.7% of sales. We also incurred higher food costs compared to our originally-forecasted amounts as a result of increased market costs for avocados.”

I’m not a fan of these buybacks, especially when the core business is woefully impaired like Chipotle. Although comps will be much easier this year, make no mistake, this is still a company in turmoil, with a valuation that isn’t cheap. Bear in mind, revenues aren’t growing anymore, so management is tossing money at common stock that is arguably way too expensive compared to its peers. Based on their industry peer comparisons, $CMG is trading more than 2x on a price to sales basis.

Does CMG deserve to be trading at 3x sales when BWLD trades half that amount?

Over the past year, the company has bought back nearly 2 billion worth of  shares, all at higher prices, and for what?

The stock continues lower and management continues to chase the stock, throwing good money after bad. Lunacy.

Shares are trading up early this morning because good news is good and bad news is even better. People believe the year over year sales bump is something to celebrate, when in fact it’s just smoke and mirrors.

My favorite pundit for retail and consumer oriented stocks, Jeff Macke, offers his two cents.

You mean like 'If $CMG lit $100m on fire and used the heat to kill the E. coli in their food it might help the stock"? That would be rude. https://t.co/f2gjS0xEhZ

— Jeff Macke (@JeffMacke) January 10, 2017

Trump ran on the promise to ‘lock her up,’ regarding Hillary’s activities with her insecure email server and subsequent activities in destroying evidence that might’ve paved the way for her landing on her head in prison. No one could say for sure, since upwards of 30,000 emails were destroyed by the Clinton camp — in a feverish ploy to evade investigation.

Rep. Chaffetz, along with Trey Gowdy, have been leading the way in Congress in pursuit of the truth, regarding the Clinton email scandal. Many on the left have lobbied for Trump to ‘let go’ of the Hillary investigation in order to ‘heal the country’ after a bitter and tumultuous campaign. However, nothing has been graceful about Hillary since her loss and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if Trump, along with incoming AG Sessions, decided to pursue a case against her with energetic fervor — draining the swamp of those implicated in the biggest political corruption cabal since Tammany Hall circa mid 19th century.

Source: Washington Examiner

“This was never a political targeting in the beginning and just because there was a political election doesn’t mean it goes away,” House Oversight and Government Reform Chairman Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, told reporters Monday. “There were a lot of other characters that were involved in this that we have to look at.”

“This was potentially one of the largest breaches of security in the history of the State Department,” he said. “It cannot and should never be repeated again. How is it that so much information was able to migrate out into the world? These are still open questions that we need to finish up so that they don’t happen again.”

Chaffetz wants to review the security clearances of Clinton aides who helped manage the “extremely careless” email process described by FBI Director James Comey. Chaffetz said he is inclined to hold Bryan Pagliano, a key Clinton IT aide, in contempt of Congress for flouting subpoenas last year. “You can’t just get a subpoena from Congress to testify and not show up,” he said.

The Utah Republican wants to target more senior officials, such as State Department Under Secretary for Management Patrick Kennedy, in light of FBI suggestions that he tried to set up a “quid pro quo” with the FBI to suppress revelations that Clinton’s email server held classified information.

FBI leadership could also be a live target of the review, as Republicans are troubled that Va. Gov Terry McAuliffe, a longtime ally of the Clintons, made campaign donations to the wife of Andrew McCabe, the agency’s second-in-command. “I’m very concerned about the straight-up conflict of interest that Mr. McCabe had,” Chaffetz said. “That’s something we’ll continue to spend resources on.”

Hillary for prison, 2017.

The good people at Deutsche Banks have toiled over the numbers and proposed policies put forth by Trump and have concluded that an end to Obama’s misery might be around the bend — the very worst GDP performance since Herbert Hoover. The combination of lower regulations, tax cuts, and fiscal spending might lead America to greatness, doubling its GDP growth by 2018 — providing succor to world economic growth.

In other words, all of the horrible things you heard during the elections, regarding Trump’s policies being disastrous for the U.S. economy, were fabrications. Trumpenomics stands to provide a renaissance in American economics — creating an atmosphere of winning whilst eschewing the communist shills who’ve misdirected the economy into an era of globalist tyranny.

Gross domestic product growth would be double its current level under an agenda that cuts regulations across a broad swath of critical sectors, enacts tax reform that slashes personal and corporate taxes, and calls for at least $1 trillion in improvements for bridges, roads and other public projects.

“This policy mix has the potential of reigniting productivity growth and raising U.S. growth potential,” David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a report for clients. “While Trump introduces higher uncertainty, this is better than the near certainty of the continuation of a mediocre status quo.”

The impact may not be felt immediately, but once the new agenda kicks in it will serve as a “game changer for the U.S. economy,” Folkerts-Landau added.

In raw numbers, that would push 2017 growth to 2.4 percent and 2018 up to 3.6 percent. By way of comparison, the economy has grown an average of about 1.6 percent a year under President Barack Obama, the worst recovery since the Great Depression. Obama is the first president since Herbert Hoover not to see at least 3 percent growth for a calendar year.

U.S. growth will bleed into the world economy, according to Deutsche, which pushed its 2017 global GDP forecast from 3 percent to 3.4 percent.

“This policy will be successful in moving the U.S. economy away from low-growth secular stagnation towards significantly more buoyant performance,” Folkerts-Landau said. “We would not be taken by surprise by a doubling of the growth rate of real GDP in the U.S. over the next two years, nor by a further significant move up of equity valuations and a material further appreciation of the dollar.”

The analysis also takes a more optimistic view of Trump’s expected “America first” agenda when compared with other Wall Street views that have cited the danger of a potentially isolationist U.S. that starts trade wars with global competitors.

“This approach should produce a new order that will ultimately be more stable in the sense that ‘good fences make good neighbors,'” Folkers-Landau said. “However, we do note that the uncertainty about the Trump administration’s policies is still large, as is the reaction of those impacted by these policies.”

America is on the precipice of becoming great again, with it the share prices of those interested in Americana.

Once liberal cry baby, now redpilled destroyer of establishment shills who seem unable to accept the election results, Piers Morgan chimed in on last night’s anti-Trump tirade by Meryl Streep — and utterly destroyed her.

I don’t want to spend any more time on this ridiculous topic than this post. The only reason why I’m delving into it is to debunk the refuse circulating online. After all, “The Fly” is all about winning the culture wars. But for those of you adamant about Trump mocking a disabled reporter employed by the most powerful newspaper in the world, watch the following video of Trump using the same hand gestures while mocking other ‘non-disabled’ people and tell me with a straight face that you still believe Trump is guilty.

Piers Morgan chimes in.

Last night, Streep received a Lifetime Achievement award at the Golden Globes, and chose the moment to launch a very personal attack on Donald Trump.

She began by saying that Hollywood, foreigners and the press are ‘the most vilified segments of American society right now’.

At which point the cameras panned out to hundreds of the richest, most privileged people in American society sitting in the audience in their $10,000 tuxedos and $20,000 dresses, loudly cheering this acknowledgement of their dreadful victimhood.

She then said that if all the ‘outsiders and foreigners’ were kicked out of Hollywood, ‘you’ll have nothing to watch but football and mixed martial arts, which are not the arts.’

Wow.

I haven’t heard such elitist snobbery since Hillary Clinton branded Trump supporters ‘a basket of deplorables’.

Do not worry. We are simply ‘basing out’ before the blast off to Elysium, or Dow 20,000. Pardon my absence from the site today and lack of Pro-Trump news, but I’ve been busy dealing with the Verizon guy — who has been trying to take short cuts and energetically working towards leaving me with subpar service. I will have you know that “The Fly” is fanatical about his internet speeds and coverage and will not waiver from his demands.

The Dow Jones traded off, but the NASDAQ was up. Several of my positions were up, including my nuclear bomb play $UEC and Charles Manson murdering biotech company, responsible for the deaths of at least 18 people, $ALNY.

Also, I started a position in $AMD today — specifically because they’re a weak and flaccid company, fighting against a dominant monopoly. In a sane world, AMD could flourish and thrive, helping consumers enjoy lower prices through hard fought competition. I am not disillusioned and merely bought it because I feel AMD is the antithesis of a reasonable portfolio selection — which is precisely why it will trade higher.

My reign of terror has just begun. It’s going to be a long year for you fucking cucks out there.

Trump isn’t punishing Mexico, but instead encouraging American companies to come back home and hire American workers — totally within the bounds of reason.

In light of President elect Trump’s intention to increase duties coming into the country, the CEO of Fiat Chrysler said he’d have to shut down their Mexican production, if it became ‘uneconomical.’

“It’s possible, if the economic terms imposed by the U.S. administration on anything that comes into the United States that, if they’re sufficiently large that it would make the production of anything in Mexico uneconomical,” said Marchionne. “We would have to withdraw. It is quite possible.”

“Let’s find out what happens as a result of President-elect Trump coming in and how he views imports,” said Marchionne.

Marchionne said that the entire Mexican automotive industry could be imperiled.

“The reality is the Mexican automotive industry has now for a number of years now been tooled-up to try and deal with the U.S. market. If the U.S. market were not to be there, the reasons for its existence are on the line,” Marchionne said.

With American auto production coming back to the U.S., the Mexican auto industry is entirely screwed. As of now, Mexican factories account for 20% of all vehicles made in N. America.

“It puts everything back on the back burner for the time being, Marchionne said. “I need clarity … we’re not the only ones who need clarity.”

The 64-year-old Marchionne said it would be “very, very costly and uncertain” to repurpose Mexican production for export to other markets other than the United States.

On Sunday, $FCAU announced they were going to invest $1b in U.S. manufacturing — which should add 2,000 jobs to the shit filled states of Ohio and Michigan.

It’s finally happening – Fiat Chrysler just announced plans to invest $1BILLION in Michigan and Ohio plants, adding 2000 jobs. This after…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 9, 2017

So you might as well profit from it.

Last week, the management at $UEC announced they’d tap equity markets to fund their operations, in a very dilutive fashion, sending shares down a solid 7%. Today the stock has rebounded, in an otherwise listless tape, and moving towards greatness.

Nuclear proliferation is inevitable.

Just today, the fucking lunatics from Pakistan unveiled a delivery system for their nukes from a submarine. Those sneaky devils can now roll up on New Delhi and drop hellfire on them.

Source: India Times

Pakistan fired its first submarine-launched cruise missile on Monday, the military said, a show of force for a country that sees its missile development as a deterrent against arch-foe India.

The launch of the nuclear-capable Babur-3 missile, which has a range of 450 km (280 miles) and was fired from an undisclosed location in the Indian Ocean, is likely to heighten long-running tension between India and Pakistan.

Someone needs to drop depth charges on those fucking subs — before it’s too late.

As crude as it might be, I am trying to show you something. When the winds of vengeance sweep the globe and 10,000 degree breezes move through highly populated urban centers, you’re gonna want to be long U3O8 plays, believe me.

Long $UEC and $URG

Muh Russians.

LIVE WikiLeaks press conf responding to CIA report on US election. Tweet your question with #AskWL affixed! https://t.co/F7HX96WgLk

— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) January 9, 2017

Who’s worried? No one right? Everything is great and awesome. Whatever sell off we endure this morning, we’ll make up for it in the afternoon when we rally.

Crude is off by 2.3% and natty by nearly 5% — because it’s nonsensical and that’s how markets are designed, to hurt people. It’s like -5 in the northeast today, so, naturally, natural gas is sharply lower. You can’t make this stuff up.

Goldman downgraded by $PG and $KO, while upgrading $DPS. More meaningless horseshit. And, the British pound is getting gimp’d down to 1985 lows — a time and place when nuclear war with Russia looked inevitable. Somethings never change.

The Turkish Lira is down another 2.5% to record lows too. Any of you motherfuckers give a shit about that? I read that Erdogan was looking forward to working with Trump and that he was optimistic about having better relations with the US. So heartwarming.

The (MUH) Russians aren’t impressed with our hacking reports and chalk it up to amateur hour bullshit by retard level democrats flailing for a life vest before drowning. These are all very interesting things.

Did I mention China? One of their fucking tabloids promised revenge on America, should we get out of line with the One China business, which is, inherently, evil. Why does Taiwan belong to China?

Answer: they don’t, which is why we sell them weapons. Trump should invite the Taiwanese President to the White House for tea and crumpets and then take selfies with her to post on his Twitter account.

As for you liberals out there so worried about Trump, chill the fuck out. The republican shills had to deal with a Kenyan in the White House for 8 years, who was a community organizer before taking office. I am sure we’ll endure Trump, a self-made billionaire, megalomaniac, who has a penchant for Americana. Plus anyway, the Congress is filled with corporate monkeys on both sides. They’ll never let Trump restructure the system to work for the people. The system works for the elite, always has and always will. Everyone else is given just enough hope and interesting teevee programming to keep them docile.

Revolutions are hard and call for a lot of energy. Americans are too busy snapchatting and do not have enough starvation level poverty to really care about the direction the globalists are taking us.

Moving on.

Most of my stocks are lower today, save $ALNY and $YY. Do you think I give a shit? I’ll buy more stocks by the end of the day and continue to do so until I run out of money. Every man reaches a point in his life when the consequences no longer matter. You grow the beard out good and long. You wear insane fury hats outside — because it’s cold and you feel like a doing it. You eat whatever the hell you want and wash it down with a shot of whiskey. The gym is something that’s nice to do, whenever the hell you have the time for it. Otherwise, you’re too busy drinking coffee and eating hamburgers. Life after 40 is very conflicted. Just 10 years ago, I knew it all. I moved stridently and knew exactly what I wanted to do. Now that I’m 40 and infinitely smarter, I second guess almost every single thing, other than my intent to buy stocks until I run out of money and wearing fury hats outside because it scares the neighbors.

I have an appointment later on with a Verizon guy. I’m switching from the bastards at Comcast to Fios — because I’m sick of bad service and expensive prices.

I just found a stock I want to buy. Off to toss some more money into the market.

Ciao.