LOADED SHOTGUN TO THE HEAD PICK: $VERI

Technical analysis edition. Try to compete.

Pro-tip: you can’t

Pretend that I was interested in your opinion. What do you see here?

What happens when a bunch of inexperience, non-battle tested, speculators with little money to their name to lose get together and buy a volatile collectible that wildly vacillates in price, on margin, funded with their fucking credit cards, and then said collectible begins to drop in earnest? What sort of market will result from this combination of perfidy?

This is what cascading margin liquidations looks like.

— Lighthouse Crypto (@LightCrypto) November 30, 2017

That’s right.

You were warned. Now it's over. This time it's for real. @RampCapitalLLC pic.twitter.com/s1T8XcYb9E

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 30, 2017

I do not intend to shit on your parade. I applaud all speculators and know the struggle and respect the struggle. But I’ve been doing this shit since ’92 and I know a god damned dangerous asset when I see it. I am trying to protect you; quit fighting me.

This from the Bitcoin forum in Reddit. People are freaking out — because they’re not accustomed with drawdowns or risk management. Those idiots think investing is a meme and that if you say HODL (hold onto dear life) enough times, well then, you’ll simply make billions.

Meanwhile, the main trading hub for cryptos, Coinbase, has been going down for the past day — likely due to an overburdened server. What will happen if BTC truly starts to crash? Will the site even be accessible for people to liquidate?

Yesterday, this lad tweeted a screen shot of his heavily margined crypto wallet, which went from $100,000 to negative $30,000 in a brief spate of rough trading.

@bitfinex You need to make this right – I just went from $100k to -$30k … refunds need to be made and owners made full. This is unacceptable. $NEO $OMG $ETP pic.twitter.com/HcPJlSF1Gk

— Brian (@biop3rl) November 29, 2017

Semis dropped like a heart attack yesterday, off by 4%. But they’ve had a great year, higher by 40%, outpacing every major industry in the market. All sell offs have been shallow this year, sporting low standard deviation levels, which is non-traditional for the sector.

In Exodus, we measure the pressure points in every stock, industry, sector, overall market in order to predict the future. Are the semis oversold? Here is our oscillator.

It’s not at the lowest levels of the YTD range, but damned close to it. As you can see from the chart, just prior to the drop was the highest technical scores of the group all year, a clear sign of froth. Had you been a member of our hallowed halls…

Nevertheless, I remain short NVDA, but am prepared to cull the position if the bounce in the semis takes on a serious tone. We’ll see today.

Morning lads,

I actually got a decent night’s sleep last night, perhaps drifting away at around midnight, waking up at exactly 4:56AM like a god damned lunatic. There I was traversing the house like a phantom in odd hours of the night in search of my an internet mobile device. Alas, here I am now, fully stocked and loaded with coffee as black as Africa, relaying the news to underserving wenches.

OPEC is meeting today, which is providing succor to oil. WTI is higher by 1%. Europe is higher by 0.7% and Nasdaq futures are +8.

Over in Bitcoin land, admittedly I am rather obsessed by the whole ordeal, prices have reversed earlier strength and are now plunging lower.

BTC is now at ~9,500, off by 2%.

I’m expecting a snap back rally because investors are fat and decadent. We are in the final stages of hedonism, a time and place that shall be look upon as where it all went wrong. Societal upheaval is often met with deranged decadence and we are currently in the midst of the very worst of bubbles. I know, chicken little — the sky is falling. But most people aren’t aware of the bubble until after it popped. Bear with it, we’ll get there soon.

Here are some other headlines to peruse.

Universal Display initiated with a Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt $225
Michaels Stores sees Q4 $1.15-1.18 vs $1.16 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees comps +1.5-2.5%
Express misses by $0.01 including hurricane impact, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line
Wesco Aircraft upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank
HCA upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan
Gap downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
Goldcorp upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Agnico-Eagle Mines upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup
Barrick Gold downgraded to Sell from Buy at Citigroup
Sears Holdings Q3 adj. loss of $2.64 was better than the ($4.46) single est, GAAP EPS was ($5.19)
Juniper Networks: After rising as much as 25% last night on reports of takeover interest from Nokia (NOK), shares are now down almost 6% after Nokia (NOK) denied it is weighing an approach

It’s really over this time, folks. This is not a drill. The IRS wants their fucking money from all of the resplendent gains bitcoiners have been touting. Believe me, upon investigation, they will be looking at your social media profiles. A San Francisco court just ruled that Coinbase must cooperate with the IRS to fish out tax evaders.

Reason being?

Less than 0.5% of Coinbase awesome crypto traders have reported gains. Prepare to get BTFO.

“That only 800 to 900 taxpayers reported gains related to bitcoin in each of the relevant years and that more than 14,000 Coinbase users have either bought, sold, sent or received at least $20,000 worth of bitcoin in a given year suggests that many Coinbase users may not be reporting their bitcoin gains,” she wrote. “The IRS has a legitimate interest in investigating these taxpayers.

Last year, analysts said similar demands could be made of other digital-currency companies if the IRS widens its investigation.

The case is U.S. v. Coinbase, 17-01431, U.S. District Court, Northern District of California.

What does this mean for you?

You’re very likely to go to jail for a very, very long time.

Indeud.

I’m not getting lectures anymore about the virtues of delving into Bitcoins following a direct assault of +100% inside of two short weeks. The asset is higher by more than 1,000% over the past annum, yet the community is as ebullient as ever — schooling yours truly on the wonders of investing in something so destined, so honed in on greatness, that the only impediment to achieving this success is my very own ignorance.

After numerous attempts of trying to tell these people that I’d be more apt to invest in Garbage Pale Kids’ collector cards than Bitcoin, one asset versus the other; it’s all the same to me anyway; but they do not want to hear any of that poppycock and cannot understand why an equity guy won’t open up a crypto account and start buying into something that has raged higher with the power of 10,000 savage animals over the past two years.

Let me be adamant when I say I shall never buy bitcoins, or even mildly entertain the suggestion, none so more as I have no interest in buying up lots of vacant housing in Trenton, NJ. It’s indecorous, beneath me, and I do not cavort with strange idlers who believe the keys to success are as simple as buying Bitcoin on your credit card and then watching the value balloon.

There is a hard reckoning coming, the type of crash that will make you soil yourselves. You deserve to lose money more than anyone I’ve ever met or seen in my entire life. Hubris, small pleb, always comes before the fall.

Now you’re falling.

I am happy to report that technology stocks are getting utterly destroyed today.

At this point, what difference does it really make? The asset classes are now subordinated to bitcoins and the crypto paranoid run higher. We might as well sit back and fade NVDA and MU, while pair trading into BTC/LTC — positioning for the great big sloppy turnover — placing King Crypto in his throne dominant over the cucks from Goldman Sachs.

Or, none of that happens and everything collapses.

Long ago, monied gentlemen of property would take to stockjobbing, or perhaps in the casino, with one intention: to make gargantuan sums of money. This was before institutions had the means to fend off vicious assaults. What these gents would do is simply employ ‘Martingale Strategies’ in whatever they were betting on, pouring limitless amount of money into their venture until it became profitable. They quite literally manifested their own destinies.

Ladies and gentlemen of the plebeian reader class: this is precisely what I am doing now with my UVXY.

See, over the years, I’ve accumulated an immense amount of money. Heck, this website alone affords me with more annual income than 97% of you dog-slobs out there. So I am sincere when I say, “I will book a profit on UVXY one way or another.”

I bought more UVXY and have now tripled down. New cost basis is $15.50.

As you were.

Whatever does he mean? Cramer is warning that the parabolic move in bitcoin is a precursor to a most horrendous pullback. As far as I can tell, the chart looks like freedom to me.

Cramer on Bitcoin: 'That Velocity is Not Right' pic.twitter.com/JIsXVTahua

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 29, 2017

He wants you to sell; because haters gonna hate. Olde Wall Streetfag must be jelly.

How’d I do?