Semis dropped like a heart attack yesterday, off by 4%. But they’ve had a great year, higher by 40%, outpacing every major industry in the market. All sell offs have been shallow this year, sporting low standard deviation levels, which is non-traditional for the sector.
In Exodus, we measure the pressure points in every stock, industry, sector, overall market in order to predict the future. Are the semis oversold? Here is our oscillator.
It’s not at the lowest levels of the YTD range, but damned close to it. As you can see from the chart, just prior to the drop was the highest technical scores of the group all year, a clear sign of froth. Had you been a member of our hallowed halls…
Nevertheless, I remain short NVDA, but am prepared to cull the position if the bounce in the semis takes on a serious tone. We’ll see today.
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You need to start banning people again.
Sac first?
I kind of enjoy the Wild West feel to the site. It is preparing us for the eventual dystopia. We don’t want to live in a bubble.
There’s nothing wrong with people that attack ideas. Even with my left-of-center bias it’s obvious that many campuses are going too far (although there has been pushback form both sides). The problem is not the speakers/commenters, but people that can’t engage their brain and open their mind.
Even in their vulagarity, the commenters that contribute nothing except personal attacks are entertaining for a while, but get pretty predictable and lose even that aspect eventually if they don’t contribute anything meaningful.
I agree. Not quite there so I’m not willing to put on my SOXL yet even if we get a bounce. Need a clean OS for dynamite like SOXL.
I have AMAT Jan. puts. They are still up by about 125% at the moment. I’m holding. NVDA run was just nuts. Fueled by AI marketing bullshit. I think it has more downside before idiots start buying it en masse.
Each year, every year, we get the “Christmas Rally!” crap. Maybe, just maybe, this year will see the Grinch’s sled loaded down with overpriced stock certificates. After removing the dog to safety, the sled gets napalmed. Fingers crossed.
Momentum will increase if the tax bill passes. That means that any losing positions will get further dumped to create write-offs at the higher individual income tax rates, while winners will be held until January to take advantage of lower rates. The Christams effect is not created by an abundance of buyers, but by a reduction in sellers. This should enhance the overall Chritsmas effect.
However, if you look at Taxes Collected, you can see that they lag earnings significantly. In other words, tax reductions are already built into earnings, as corporation have reduced their tax withholdings despite higher earnings. This also means that the tax reduction will have less of an an impact on future corporate earnings comapred to 2017.
If the tax bill isn’t passed, by-bye Christmas
>If the tax bill isn’t passed, by-bye Christmas
That tax bill will be passed by midnight Friday. Plan accordingly.
Bought MU today.
Hell in this bull market you gotta buy any strong sector that has a pullback.