Serious question, if I may. You regularly poke fun at TA, most likely for shits and giggles, but I’ve also seen you refer to Jeff as one of the best traders you’ve ever seen. Seeing as he uses TA exclusively, do you ever think maybe there’s something there that’s worthwhile?
I don’t know if Jeff realizes it or not, but he doesn’t use TA. He’s more of a sentiment trader and intuitive. He’ll, for example, watch me blunder in VIX for 6 months and then decide to bet against me on the 7th, after establishing a rich history of blunders.
Fly does use some TA….he screens it with Exodus…come on…newer readers really have to catch up. This guy is one of the best traders ever. Do you think he wouldn’t think through everything? Even knowing that other traders are using it is enough to analyze it. Instead of sifting through charts Exodus gives technical scores.
I’ve been here four years now but tend to read this blog for comic relief, and actually trade with Jeff.
There’s definitely some sentiment aspects rooted in it, but there have been more than a few trades this year alone based solely on price action that have returned > 1000% option gains re: BIDU INTC FIVE SSTK. The heavily sentiment based trades like SNAP actually haven’t worked out.
I’ve just seen these patterns work out hundreds if not thousands of times over the last few years, even in shitty market environments, and at the very least help to manage risk. Palm reader till I die.
Just look at stuff like SAM, GILD, KSHB, NQ, XIN, FNJN. Stocks that have nothing to do with eachother, same price action same explosive result to the upside, if you time it right. It happens everywhere all the time, just blows my mind that more people don’t see it. To each their own, I guess.
This bull market has been highly rewarding to trend followers and disciplined technical analysis combined with sentiment and fundamentals. Blanket writing off of Tech and China, especially China tech, has kept Fly out of the best runners of the year. Fundamentally different trading styles, and also why OA makes a much more reasonable trader to trade along with. He’s got zero ego and 100% love of the game. Fly trades to be right, and only to be right. Highly rewarding to the ego when you’re right, but less flexible when it comes to what’s actually working in the market.
“He’s got zero ego” I wouldn’t say that about OA. He was quite bullsih. He was classic BTFD. I don’t recall him buying puts on stocks except for the rare hgih-flying near-IPO types like $SNAP ( in which he went both ways).
His TA didn’t really see the downturns coming, except when it came to the poll of his actual readers’ setiments. Even then, he always read them as temporary (I’ll give him credit for stocking to his guns on that).
Yeah well, that means he’s traded this market perfectly lol. And I think I recall him saying his best year % wise was 2008, when it was appropriate to buy puts and get bearish. Also I don’t think he ever bought SNAP puts.
A lot of your pics are TA based..lol …….if i remember correctly, you seem to have a screen that picks morning star reversals that led to some big gains in popular trades here…one of your legendary GMCR trades was ‘suchness’.
TA is leginitimate for a very basic reason:
1) Humans trade, or program the automated algortithms that trade for them
2) Many humans believe in TA
-> Trades are palced based on TA
The thing about TA, is you can stretch it to bullshit values, also, be employing enogh rules, you can create so many levels that one of them is bound to be hit. So basically, you should juts stick to basic levels and use them to find entry points.
One more thing: it is very easy to be a good “trader” if your trades and the market always go in the same direction. In 1998-99, I was golden before reality struck…
Prior to all these algos charting was much more of an art form. Nowadays you either have to go Fly’s route of having algos or do exactly what Fly said about Jeff…using sentiment…jeff is a master at gauging sentiment. For myself being relatively inactive for the last few years I have always liked using Fly’s and Jeff’s picks as a screen for myself…and then using my own TA. I would get nice singles and doubles without doing much research or work having what I consider to be two of the best traders on the internet in one spot. Jeff uses a lot of the justin mamis approach….which worked really well with GOOS and his big SNAP trade.
Serious question, if I may. You regularly poke fun at TA, most likely for shits and giggles, but I’ve also seen you refer to Jeff as one of the best traders you’ve ever seen. Seeing as he uses TA exclusively, do you ever think maybe there’s something there that’s worthwhile?
No.
I don’t know if Jeff realizes it or not, but he doesn’t use TA. He’s more of a sentiment trader and intuitive. He’ll, for example, watch me blunder in VIX for 6 months and then decide to bet against me on the 7th, after establishing a rich history of blunders.
Incorrect, as per usual.
Fly does use some TA….he screens it with Exodus…come on…newer readers really have to catch up. This guy is one of the best traders ever. Do you think he wouldn’t think through everything? Even knowing that other traders are using it is enough to analyze it. Instead of sifting through charts Exodus gives technical scores.
I’ve been here four years now but tend to read this blog for comic relief, and actually trade with Jeff.
There’s definitely some sentiment aspects rooted in it, but there have been more than a few trades this year alone based solely on price action that have returned > 1000% option gains re: BIDU INTC FIVE SSTK. The heavily sentiment based trades like SNAP actually haven’t worked out.
I’ve just seen these patterns work out hundreds if not thousands of times over the last few years, even in shitty market environments, and at the very least help to manage risk. Palm reader till I die.
Just look at stuff like SAM, GILD, KSHB, NQ, XIN, FNJN. Stocks that have nothing to do with eachother, same price action same explosive result to the upside, if you time it right. It happens everywhere all the time, just blows my mind that more people don’t see it. To each their own, I guess.
This bull market has been highly rewarding to trend followers and disciplined technical analysis combined with sentiment and fundamentals. Blanket writing off of Tech and China, especially China tech, has kept Fly out of the best runners of the year. Fundamentally different trading styles, and also why OA makes a much more reasonable trader to trade along with. He’s got zero ego and 100% love of the game. Fly trades to be right, and only to be right. Highly rewarding to the ego when you’re right, but less flexible when it comes to what’s actually working in the market.
“He’s got zero ego” I wouldn’t say that about OA. He was quite bullsih. He was classic BTFD. I don’t recall him buying puts on stocks except for the rare hgih-flying near-IPO types like $SNAP ( in which he went both ways).
His TA didn’t really see the downturns coming, except when it came to the poll of his actual readers’ setiments. Even then, he always read them as temporary (I’ll give him credit for stocking to his guns on that).
Yeah well, that means he’s traded this market perfectly lol. And I think I recall him saying his best year % wise was 2008, when it was appropriate to buy puts and get bearish. Also I don’t think he ever bought SNAP puts.
A lot of your pics are TA based..lol …….if i remember correctly, you seem to have a screen that picks morning star reversals that led to some big gains in popular trades here…one of your legendary GMCR trades was ‘suchness’.
Truth is, Exodus is heavily TA, but digitized. I watch price action through Algos and pretend that I’m not using TA, when in fact I am.
TA is leginitimate for a very basic reason:
1) Humans trade, or program the automated algortithms that trade for them
2) Many humans believe in TA
-> Trades are palced based on TA
The thing about TA, is you can stretch it to bullshit values, also, be employing enogh rules, you can create so many levels that one of them is bound to be hit. So basically, you should juts stick to basic levels and use them to find entry points.
One more thing: it is very easy to be a good “trader” if your trades and the market always go in the same direction. In 1998-99, I was golden before reality struck…
Prior to all these algos charting was much more of an art form. Nowadays you either have to go Fly’s route of having algos or do exactly what Fly said about Jeff…using sentiment…jeff is a master at gauging sentiment. For myself being relatively inactive for the last few years I have always liked using Fly’s and Jeff’s picks as a screen for myself…and then using my own TA. I would get nice singles and doubles without doing much research or work having what I consider to be two of the best traders on the internet in one spot. Jeff uses a lot of the justin mamis approach….which worked really well with GOOS and his big SNAP trade.
Shorting the f out of the ARK is my shotgun trade rn