Dow +140
Gold +0.66%
Silver +1.2%
TLT +0.6%
Copper +1%
WTI +0.55%
Coffee +0.85%
BTC +1%
ETH +0.86%
DAX +1%
It’s a giant orgy of success, across the board. You should all be very proud of yourselves for achieving these feats of greatness. You have most certainly earned all of this grandeur. We should all bow down before President Trump and thank him, profusely, for his rigging of the stock market higher. It has truly made America greater than it was before. These are the halcyon days of speculation, the time and place that you will remember for the rest of your lives — a time that will both haunt and cause you to harken back as the very best of times.
Congrats.
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When everyone is enamored with peace and prosperity, that is usually when the SHTF. Jog on.
And most importantly Uranium +3.25%
Yellowcake to the moon!
Buy some Bitcoin folks. 10,000 will be here before Christmas.
Christmas? What, you’re expecting a major slowdown?
Bitcoin will hit 10,000 before Christmas
You sound bitter. Save some of that for when NVDA hits 1000.
You sound like those bitter guys who were complaining about internet/tech stocks in the 1999 bubble days. Sure, they eventually tanked, but there was a lot of money to be made and a lot of fun to be had in the meantime. Not everyone that traded stocks during that era got wiped out if you partook with the understanding that, as with anything, things can fall apart at any time.
He hasn’t analyzed AAPL AMZN NFLX FB or GOOG in three years. Zero. He was dismissive of Tim Cook because he’s gay, and he refused to upgrade his technology to keep abreast of innovation. And who cares about global markets right? Just fuck Merkel and fuck Chinese burritos. This is the comeuppance.
I was on a 3 month trip through Europe and Asia. Everywhere I went things were humming along swimmingly. Construction projects as far as the eye could see, places were packed with tourists, airports buzzing with business travelers, and a general state of happiness among the pleebs. The world economies are growing in sync right now, and so long as that continues I see no reason for a massive stock market crash. Yeah, we are probably due a scare or small correction at some point, but barring some major economy-changing event, this World wide bull market isnt just going to die from old age.
Don’t conflate the economy with stock prices.
GDP in the first 2Qs of 2000 averaged 6%. Gross exports and imports were both up over 10% (annual pace) those 2 quarters. Unemployment was 4% – with a much higher labor participation rate than today.
High PEs were the problem then, not a poor economy.
Stock market is a forward looking indicator. I agree with snb, global growth is happening. I’ve seen it firsthand in Argentina, which was on its way to becoming Venezuela-lite.
“Stock market is a forward looking indicator”.. of the economy or of the stock market itself?
Are you making the claim that because the stock amrket has gone up the past (week, month, year) then that means it must go up the next (week, month, year)?
Logically speaking, if an indicator going up was evidence that it would continue to go up in the future, then it would never fall.
Don’t conflate the economy with stock prices
Forward looking indicator for the economy. It indicates investor optimism for future growth.
Unbelievable that nobody in this hangout can see the impending collapse, not correction, collapse just around the corner… early 2018, just when everybody thinks this bull on fiat steroids will never have a heart attack. Nobody is prepared for it, nobody is hedged here. Or even considering it.
Good point. I never see Fly write posts about the market’s potential collapse…
Lol…I’d tell you about my hedges, but you wouldn’t like them. They are productive assets that have a long term real return >0%…unlike gold.
are these productive assets geared to function in collapsed economy? Food processing, farming, basic survival kits, generators, etc.?
If you honestly believe you know how a truly collapsed economy will play out, I have some snake oil to sell you.
For the rest of us, blunt portfolio management tools will get you 90% of the way there. AKA good enough. Run a globally diversified balanced portfolio on the way up. Sit around and wait for the wheels to fall off. When they eventually do, sell bonds, buy equities and short some vol.
If we truly collapse, once you run out of ammo, you can throw your gold at anyone trying to steal your food. Maybe invest in slingshots?
we’ll see. bookmark this comment so we can revisit it next year. if the grid is still up. I no longer believe mad max guns and bullets scenario is likely; however, severe depression is in the cards. Revolution/civil war and attempt to flip to full-fledged china communism model is likely. Large scale riots and martial law nearly guaranteed. On global scale. Europe for sure. War in MENA. Draft.
Nah you’ll just move the goalposts and blame the Jews. Rinse/repeat.
See you in a year.
Want to buy some China Bonds? At least they are preparing for it by trying to unload as much bad debt as possible. Not sure how bad it will get, SPX 575ish is where I would expect it to rest. We have to work off a global glut of commodities after all the speculators of a Global Growth panic and sell when the Central Bank Put is removed. China Property going full tilt ABS..there is so much graft, fraud, etc there..yep that will be OK. This is all dominoes, all lined up. Not sure what will finally push them over? China Slowing and pulling liquidity is my guess.
I am fixated, and have been, on Europe. It will start with a single, under the radar, in the left field, default, i.e. a bank (the likes of Monte Paschi), S&L type of institution, a pension fund in EU or here. The default will lead to “no bid”, triggering CDO, followed by CCP lockup. Game over.
@sarcrilege Europe has been in a mess. But, bottomline, China is the party to catch a cold and give Europe the flu. Germany is weakened cuz they can’t get a majority party. May in the UK can’t get the political strength and her days could be numbered soon. For Monte Paschi, Italian Banks now have the Italian Govt to bail them out (five star concerns makes Italy more willing to help, lol). Italian Govt has the ECB to bail them out by having ECB buy those sucky Italian Bonds. (Hey China maybe you should see if Draghi wants to buy your bonds, lol). So Greek Stand Off with Italian Banks. UK on the other hand is in a much weaker position if we are looking at Europe Banks, fwiw. Especially, if we have a hard exit. IMHO I think defaults on the One Belt/One Road is much more interesting. China is lending EM billions to build a silk road and playing Loan Shark if they fail to pay. But, what stops EM from seizing the project and defaulting on the loans?
So NO Greek Stand Off with Italian Banks. Maybe one day Fly will put EDIT feature…or I will learn to stop and proof read, lol.
Serious question tradingnymph…
In our previous discussion over CAPE, you ended by saying all current stats and valuation metrics are suspect. Doesn’t this give you license to believe whatever you want? If you question every metric, you never have to change your mind. You can be wrong forever and just say you’re early.
How long are you allowed to be wrong for? What would make you change your pre-conceived notions of how this is going to go?
@Tonka I use to throw out ideas to Cramer in 2007. One was Chattem.He interviewed the CEO, everything was great. All the numbers were perfect. Then all good companies went down, went down hard. In March 2009 I saw the bottom, but I also saw that the bottom was formed by the Chinese Govt going in and propping up the copper, commodity markets causing a false indicator of demand. Awww a Bubble is forming…and I started a Blog to follow this Anatomy of a Bubble from start to finish. If you click my name here it links to it. This was down the rabbit hole for me…I look at so many indicators that most don’t. Headline CPI, Core CPI, Core-Core CPI data (Japan likes that one) has so many holes in it. NFP is beyond a joke on Phone Call Surveys and huge revisions. I follow the coal ships from Australia , the Bonded Warehouses in Shanghai, The comments from Global Central Banks, the movement of all the major currency pairs, global bond market. I am normally up when Asia closes and Europe opens because that is the most important time for the market. US Session almost seems irrelevant these days. I am not early…I am just watching it develop from start to finish. Could I be wrong about the failure of Governments creating a HUGE HUGE massive bubble by buying up commodities, bonds, equities to support a world economy that is slowing down in demand since 2009? Well, I know we have a Global Glut in actual commodities, Countries holding the largest amount of equities ever seen, historical central bank intervention that has given dull economic data. I could be wrong on my bubble thesis…we will see…maybe we will see actual physical demand and growth in Inflation. Central Banks hope so.
I guess my point is, there is evidence that the best predictive models use all available inputs. You can’t throw anything out. So, if you question the validity of the data, you are losing your predictive power.
It’s like people that look at P/B to value a company, cuz it worked in the past. The most accurate way to predict the future value a company is not to use what’s worked in the past. You use all currently available ratios, regardless of how flawed you may think they are.
Our ability to determine the validity of data is VERY limited.
@Tonka, I just want to know what pops a bubble? All the books I have read and things that I have seen is when the bubble pops. But all this blogging I do is to see how the sausage is actually made. I would be great if CAPE would predict that, but 1987 crash didn’t have a high CAPE number. F/X and Bonds are the big dog, Equities is just it’s tail.
I don’t get it either. I saw markets up, but when Treasuries and preciosu metals also rose, that is a bit abnormal.
As for “a lot of money to be made (similar to 1999),” is that the winners and eventual losers are not the same group. You think Wall Street will advise the public to pull their money out when they see the crash coming? Nope, it will be another Middle Class fleecing followed by “Who coulda known?” as the bankers cash their bonus checks.
I’m sure a lot of the middle class like that their 401k is up, but doubt many are actively invested in the market like the .com days.
But there’s no bubble!
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The yield curve is saying that this is the top of the market though
Is VERI another name of UVXY? Down +7% today.
@Tonka I use to throw out ideas to Cramer in 2007. One was Chattem.He interviewed the CEO, everything was great. All the numbers were perfect. Then all good companies went down, went down hard. In March 2009 I saw the bottom, but I also saw that the bottom was formed by the Chinese Govt going in and propping up the copper, commodity markets causing a false indicator of demand. Awww a Bubble is forming…and I started a Blog to follow this Anatomy of a Bubble from start to finish. If you click my name here it links to it. This was down the rabbit hole for me…I look at so many indicators that most don’t (I believe?). I follow the coal ships from Australia , the Bonded Warehouses in Shanghai, The comments from Global Central Banks, the movement of all the major currency pairs, global bond market. I am normally up when Asia closes and Europe opens because that is the most important time for the market. US Session almost seems irrelevant these days. Headline CPI, Core CPI, Core-Core CPI data (Japan likes that one) has so many holes in it. NFP is beyond a joke on Phone Call Surveys and huge revisions. I am not early…I am just watching it develop from start to finish. Could I be wrong about the failure of Governments creating a HUGE HUGE massive bubble by buying up commodities, bonds, equities to support a world economy that is slowing down in demand since 2009? Well, I know we have a Global Glut in actual physical commodities, Countries holding the largest amount of equities ever seen, historical central bank intervention that has given dull economic data. I could be wrong on my bubble thesis…we will see…maybe we will see actual physical demand and growth in Inflation. Central Banks hope so.
They need inflation …but they also need low rates as the debt rolls over. A conundrum. Also, the US has shortened duration, while it would have been prudent to lengthen it if they were planning to inflate away our indebtedness.
They may simply be “not-on-my-watch” short-term thinkers, or perhaps they’re planning some kind of currency/debt reset.
They need inflation but not too much. A sudden turn that is not growth related, like persistent spikes in oil prices or supply bottlenecks, would be a worry. The flip side of that is is risk of over tightening in the face of meager inflation. Low inflation allows policy makers some wiggle room to reverse course and stabilize markets. Goldilocks economies will keep this show playing.