Most of you don’t know it yet — but the Turkey Gods have been slain. Nasdaq futures are down 23, WTI -1.1%, and the NIKKEI is off by 200. The most ardent amongst you will acknowledge a spoiled rotten gait with the perma-bulls, men who truly believe stocks can only go higher. Why do these people think this?
That’s easy. Stocks mostly go higher and if you’re not talented trader or unable to see potential black swans, you’re predisposition to always believe stocks will go up. It’s the easiest way to make money in the market; it doesn’t require a high level of cognitive thinking, and it allows you to feel safe and comfortable with the pack.
“The Fly” is more of a shepherd, less of a fucking dumb animal being led down rolling hills to slaughter.
I truly believe stocks will splash against the pavement, revealing a bloody mess — brain matter festooned all over Wall Street — leading to a very Krampus Xmas — one that might cause Trump to tweet out the true JFK files. To play this is simple, bet against the leaders: NVDA, BAC, oils and biotech.
Also, I am betting against Russia, via RUSS — because MUH Mueller. When our armies march on Moscow, the MICEX will be zero. Lastly, I have a small pastiche of good momentum stocks that have very high beta. Should stocks continue the path of least resistance, they will serve me fine.
Truth is, everyone is bullish. All of the naysayers are cockless. Thanksgiving is around the bend and my oven broke and pipes busted a leak in my kitchen ceiling. I have 5 holes in my ceiling now, all of which need to be repaired tomorrow and then I have to go out and fetch another oven — else my Thanksgiving will, quite literally, be canceled.
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shoot it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7QlGsUWG1E
Yes, you will get your market correction but it will not be the bloody brain splashing you espouse. Can you live with -6% down? Mom and pop still have to chase FAANG stocks even higher because they can and it’s a sure thing in their minds.
There is a guy out there who thinks the selling we are seeing is the result of forced selling by margin clerks relating to positions seized by the Saudi’s. He speculated that the engulfing candlestick in the Nikkei late last week was caused by this and that the selling would spread to U.S. and European markets leading to a 10% downward move, similar to the Ebola low of 2014. It would explain why gold and treasuries are selling as I believe that a lot of Saudi money was invested in the larger macro funds in the U.S. and elsewhere that like to buy lots of that stuff. Redemptions may be under way. Time will tell. I’m not positioned for a 10 pt move lower, but I have a shopping list if we get there.
Truly.
Is the NSA the turkey that gets slaughtered this season? Enquiring minds…
WTF does a vegetarian need an oven for? Steaming Monsanto GMO veggies improves health.
That was not the yes or no answer I was hoping for. So, yes?
fly is short…. here come the doomsday “I truly believe stocks will splash against the pavement” posts ….. so predictable
Futures are down 0.31% ….. get out your crash helmets !!!!
I still think this is just a short-term peak in World markets. The overall global economy is still trending up with accomodative central banks which should support earnings/stock market gains over the intermediate term. That said, the market got overheated evidenced by none other than the garbage shippers rallying last week (that’s always been my tell for short-term market tops). Cheers.
I’m curious what Fly’s definition of a crash would be? Hard to tell with the hyperbole, but a simple <5% drop from the top would be normal, healthy, and not what I would consider a blood-letting. Now if we somehow drop more than that…
Talks of crash sounds weird when the S&P is within 1% of ATH.
Nonetheless, if DRIP and LABD continues with double digits% rises today, might be advance notice to go to SPXU and SRTY
Fly…this your abode ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CJ9EDtZ2p8
Turkatron and Goblox are NOT dead.
Look for a brief appearance by both deity on next Tuesday and Wednesday.