Trees and power lines are down in Naples, FL, where a 10-15 feet storm surge is expected to arrive later on. @JonVigliotti reporting. pic.twitter.com/eECVPUeEmf
Dr. Masters over at Wunderground gives us the quick rundown on Irma. It looks like she weakened a bit, slumming through Cuba. Now she’s shifted NNW, en route to Tampa.
Irma is still predicted to “run the peninsula”, taking an unusual track from south-southeast to north-northwest along the length of the state. This forecast track has steadily nudged west since Thursday, and Irma is now expected to track closer to Florida’s west coast than its east coast. Models are now in very close agreement, and we expect little significant shift to this track outlook.
Parts of the Florida Keys will experience extreme winds and storm surge. On its west-northwest heading late Saturday, Irma was aimed toward the west of Key West, which would put the the city on the storm’s more dangerous right-hand side. However, Irma is beginning to angle rightward, and this will most likely bring its core somewhere near or just east of Key West between around 2 and 8 am Sunday. Winds of 120 mph or more can be expected just east of the eye, and storm surge is predicted to range from 5 to 10 feet.
A catastrophic storm surge is increasingly likely from Fort Myers to Naples on Sunday afternoon as Irma passes along or just to the west of this coastline. Surge values of 10 to 15 feet are expected from Cape Sable to Captiva. Vanderbilt Beach at Naples experienced a peak surge of 10-13 feet during Hurricane Charley, and Captiva Island experienced a surge of 6.5 feet. Irma’s surge will be more widespread and devastating to southwest Florida than the surge experienced during Charley, since Irma is a much bigger storm and has had more time to build up a larger surge. Parts of this coastline may also experience destructive Category 2 or 3 winds if Irma intensifies as expected and its center remains just offshore. Assuming that Irma moves inland between Fort Myers and Tampa as predicted, surge values northward through the Tampa area will be somewhat lower, but still potentially 5 to 8 feet. It would take a significant jump westward in the forecast track to put Tampa on the more dangerous right-hand side of the storm.
As much as we hate to see people suffer through a storm of this magnitude, those who bought UVE on Friday stand to make a mint on Monday. The fact that the eyewall has moved to the west gives me reason to believe the damage to Miami will be manageable and not catastrophic.
A wise man once told me, ‘the problem with moving to Florida is that you’d become a Floridian.’ After years of visiting Disney and seeing some of the worst people in the northeast venture down there for a ‘better life’, I began to realize this great man was a sage.
As everyone knows by now, a big storm is heading for Florida — forcing mass evacuations. The Mayor of Miami Beach, catering to the Sharknado tier IQ of his constituency, labeled it a ‘nuclear storm.’ The Governor has warned residents ‘you’re not going to survive’, demanding that they leave.
Fine.
Then answer this for me. If everyone is leaving the storm zones, why the fuck are Floridians stockpiling on water? They’ve even set up trackers to tell citizens where to get gas and water, as if Atlanta didn’t have enough water for them.
Here are people scrambling to get some water, just before being forced to evacuate.
Do these people believe Hurricane Irma will wipe out the entire state, leaving it without fresh water supplies? Or, are they taking the water with them to Atlanta, fearing Georgia didn’t have enough for them?
Hard questions need to be asked and we northerners demand answers.
Are Floridians, as a whole, retarded?
Separately, I’ve been reading some reports that suggest ALPHA MALES are buying the shit out of La Croix, designer sparkling water, ahead of Irma. Here’s a snapshot of a man contemplating which flavor to buy: Pamplemousse or Pina Fraise?
Alpha Male deciding which La Croix flavor to buy
On a personal note, I ate 1 roasted pepper and a hummus wrap this morning, alongside a black coffee, whilst listening to Al Bowlly ‘dance orchestra’ music — hoping to make mass coin in my FIZZ-FAZ positions. Then it dawned on me: I am the exact opposite person now from who I was when I started the blog.
Back then, I listened to gangster rap music and made a big fuss about everything. Now, I listen to music from a century again, calm as a cucumber.
I used to buy MNST stock — because I was always hopped up on energy soda. Now I own a faggot water stock and post pictures of ‘alpha males’ deciding on which faggot flavor they’re gonna purchase.
I went ahead and bought some more UVE — in spite of saying earlier that I wouldn’t. The situation with Irma is fluid, with some forecasters suggesting she might weaken to a Cat 2, aka Nothing Burger, by landfall. With so much fake news circulating, I felt it was my job to profit from it.
It is uncommon for a major hurricane that suffers such a large hit to its strength and organization to make a quick recovery and re-intensify back to its former strength. I’m not expecting Irma to regain Category 5 status, particularly since part of its circulation is now over Cuba, and the core of the hurricane will come very close to the Cuban coast on Friday night and Saturday. Conditions are otherwise favorable for intensification through Sunday, with light wind shear less than 10 knots and very warm ocean waters near 30°C (86°F.) Irma is likely to be a large and very dangerous Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 – 140 mph winds when it makes landfall in the Florida Keys between 1 am and 7 am Sunday morning.
Couple this reversal of fortune for yours truly with the gains enjoyed in PGTI (bought more today, much lower) and the comeback in FIZZ, and I think it’s fair to say “The Fly” is back, cock-strong, better than ever.
Here is UVE’s intra-day chart.
Here is why I am buying both PGTI and UVE.
1. PGTI will benefit not matter what. The scare these storms are producing will enable them to increase sales after the storm. Should it do a lot of damage, they’ll make a King’s ransom.
2. UVE is down ~30% this week, a business that is normal stable and replete with free cash flow. With Irma shifting NNW, it will not make direct landfall in Miami. This doesn’t mean Miami won’t be damaged with winds and flooding. However, it might not be as bad as previously feared.
It isn’t easy being me. I am forced to wear many hats, deal with all sorts of vagrants who ask me for financial advise. But I persevere, for the benefit of mankind. You should be indelibly grateful.
For the week that is ending today, I took a hammer and crushed the skull of Mr. SPY — scooped out his brains — and used the skull to ash my cigar. The Exodus Quant system netted +0.24% on a median basis, compared to the -0.33% for the SPY. This is the 4th week in a row that I’ve hammered it, and I think 13 out of 17 overall.
I will not give away the system picks — because people pay for that. You freeloader types should join the league of gentlemen and cavort with us inside the Pelican Room. Now that I am actively trading, things are heating up again.
I will note that the system shifted towards risk aversion, upping my exposure to both GLD and TLT to 10%, or 20% overall. With my 20% cash position intact, and another 20% in GLD/TLT, I think it’s fair to say, Exodus believes a storm is coming (fuck it, pun intended).
That was an easy one for me. First order of business, I old OAS for a ~30 cent loss. I really don’t have conviction in the oil trade, so it’s gone. My FAZ is getting hammered, because bankers are banking. All of the finnies are running higher into Irma, with Jose upping his power levels to 150mph just behind her.
Does it make sense?
No, especially with the yield curve flat as fuck.
Trust me when I tell you, banks are going lower.
But, in the meantime, there are trades. Like yesterday, I bought AEL — an Iowan life insurance play that was getting mauled because of a hurricane in Florida. That was an easy one.
Now today I have a choice, do I double down in UVE — hoping that Mother Nature spares Florida and saves the insurance industry too?
Or, do I double down in PGTI, hoping for widespread destruction, mayhem, fire in the streets?
As you probably know by now, reading me for years, I chose the latter.
I bought more PGTI — because the world will be a better place with hurricane proof windows. Protect your loved ones — buy better windows. I’d love to be a fucking window salesman in Florida after the storm. I’d make a killing, scaring people to death, handing out safe window pamphlets to kids.
I will leave my UVE intact and hope for the best. Should the storm miss the big cities in Florida, UVE will soar by 20%. If the storm is as bad as people think it’ll be, I expect UVE to go lower.
UPDATE:Since this post was published, the Gods have granted me a small respite, an oasis of fresh water in a vast desert landscape. FIZZ has rebounded a bit, placing my losses a little less than $2. Amen.
Up until last week, I was perfectly happy, jogging on without a care in the world. My investments were automated, using the Exodus quant system I put in place, and I didn’t have to deal with the chicanery of every day investing.
But I had to change that — because a crack head always goes back to the glass, if given enough time and leisure. I said to myself ‘you’re not a crack head Fly. You’re just gonna take one quick pull from that glass and that’ll be it.’
Next thing you know, I’m rooting for hurricanes to both destroy and miss Florida, long faggot water stocks, hoping for people to be parched running away from the storm, and trying to profit from a sudden demand for hurricane resistant windows.
Capitalism at its finest.
Last night, FIZZ reported earnings and beat them, upping guidance in the process. The fucked faces over at Maxim Group were so kind and bold enough to up their price target on the stock to $40 from $33, citing a wanton disregard for fundamental valuation. They’re calling for a 60% drop in the stock and I hate them for it.
FIZZ is down 7 bucks on the news, officially placing me in the red by almost $5.
Here’s me visiting my neighbor this morning, who happens to be short FIZZ.
On the insurance front, things are looking bleak. This morning a Bloomberg analyst discussed the risks to the insurance industry in Florida. This is definitely worth your time, especially if you’re like me — LONG INSURANCE STOCKS INTO THE TEETH OF A CAT 5 DEACON OF DEATH.
So, what the fuck is my problem anyway?
I got my UVE and FIZZ barreling down into hell. My oil play, OAS, careening lower, whilst my window (PGTI) play barely higher, FAZ being FAZ, and of course my life insurance stock (AEL) flat to slightly higher. Why do I bother?
I’ll tell you why I bother, you fucking faggots.
Because I am going to be right. Not only that, I am going to keep buying until my face turns blue, my hair walks away from my head — and the sun crashes into the moon — sucking the fucking galaxy into a black hole — burning all living things to a cinder. I will never stop, so don’t try stopping me.
What now Fly?
I am very glad to be having conversations with myself on this fine day. A little Q&A is perfectly normal. I will soon tend to my quantitive positions, which beat the S&P again this week, and perhaps make a move in my discretionary account. By my vantage point, we’ll know the true nature of the damage inflicted upon Florida by Monday, which makes today a very unique day to play the storm.
