I went ahead and bought some more UVE — in spite of saying earlier that I wouldn’t. The situation with Irma is fluid, with some forecasters suggesting she might weaken to a Cat 2, aka Nothing Burger, by landfall. With so much fake news circulating, I felt it was my job to profit from it.
This is reliable insight, via Dr. Masters at Wunderground.
It is uncommon for a major hurricane that suffers such a large hit to its strength and organization to make a quick recovery and re-intensify back to its former strength. I’m not expecting Irma to regain Category 5 status, particularly since part of its circulation is now over Cuba, and the core of the hurricane will come very close to the Cuban coast on Friday night and Saturday. Conditions are otherwise favorable for intensification through Sunday, with light wind shear less than 10 knots and very warm ocean waters near 30°C (86°F.) Irma is likely to be a large and very dangerous Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 – 140 mph winds when it makes landfall in the Florida Keys between 1 am and 7 am Sunday morning.
Couple this reversal of fortune for yours truly with the gains enjoyed in PGTI (bought more today, much lower) and the comeback in FIZZ, and I think it’s fair to say “The Fly” is back, cock-strong, better than ever.
Here is UVE’s intra-day chart.
Here is why I am buying both PGTI and UVE.
1. PGTI will benefit not matter what. The scare these storms are producing will enable them to increase sales after the storm. Should it do a lot of damage, they’ll make a King’s ransom.
2. UVE is down ~30% this week, a business that is normal stable and replete with free cash flow. With Irma shifting NNW, it will not make direct landfall in Miami. This doesn’t mean Miami won’t be damaged with winds and flooding. However, it might not be as bad as previously feared.
11am advisory shifts track westward, bringing #IRMA close t Tampa Bay but also weakening it. #IrmaHurricane2017 @FOX13News pic.twitter.com/AgINQDJtMn
— Chris Cato FOX 13 (@chriscato) September 8, 2017
Ultimately, the latter is a high risk trade, totally dependent upon Mother Nature not wreaking maximum havoc.
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Don’t you think it’s time you join the spaghetti Hurricane directional models with your world beating phallic charts showing the true direction of Irma?
“some forecasters suggesting she might weaken to a Cat 2”
What forecaster is predicting Cat 2? The one you quoted just said Cat 4 landfall.
Also, do not ignore the coverage area of the storm. It is 4 times the area of Andrews, which means that the hurricane winds will take twice as long to pass (so high winds last twice as long) and the destrction width is also twice as wide.
Shifted further west. I have an interest in a Ft Myers Beach property. It could use a taxpayer-funded remodel. Thanks!
Ft. Myers Beach in the 1960’s and 1970’s was pretty open.
My family used to go to Sanibel for vacations and that was before they built the Causeway. We used to have to take a ferry over in the early ’60s and then a bridge was built.
There were only Mom and Pop motels on Periwinkle Way on the Island (I recall the resort being there on the northern end of Captiva).
In fact, I recall my parents looking at the first condos being built on the Gulf side and my Dad saying how crazy they were for asking $55,000 (it’s probably about $600,000 today).
Those were they days
the good ‘ol intra day double down play ($FIZZ). I was worried about out-going ACATs but now i’m too busy sashaying around the office.
-Hack Broker
Fly, perhaps catching a bid because projected track is farther from Miami, Ft Lauderdale and Palm Beach. Big difference between the east and west coast.
In short, you want Irma on a rocket ship to Venus.
Is the world ending?
Faz is the play for max pain of hurricanes coming. An AIG event could be in play.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-08/how-hedge-funds-are-preparing-weekends-catastrophe
Creditsights view:
US Insurance: How Might a 1-in-100 Hurricane Look
In 2010, the Florida Department of Financial Services commissioned a study which estimated that economic damages from a 1-in-100 year hurricane event would total nearly $160 bn in the state.
If we assume that ~40% of losses are insured (which may still be too conservative) a 1-in-100 year hurricane event could lead to ~$72 bn in insured losses in Florida alone (when adjusting for an increase in economic activity since 2010).
Insurers often gauge their exposures to certain events through a risk management exercise which calls for estimating a probable maximum loss (PML) in a variety of low probability events.
Chubb estimates that a 1-in-100 hurricane event could cause it to post losses of $3.1 bn, which translates to 6.4% of shareholders’ equity.
Unsurprisingly, reinsurers like XL and RE fare less well than primary insurers in outlier-type events.
It does not appear that a 1-in-100 hurricane event would be enough to break an insurer from policyholders’ or creditors’ perspectives.
We do not intend to imply that Hurricane Irma will be a 1-in-100 year event.
What about multiple hurricanes in multiple states.
No worries. Just like housingthe chances of multie regions being hit at once is low
Weakening. Yeah right. Follow RyanMaue instead of Fake News. Looks to me like the Keys will be wiped out (again). And then most of south Florida.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906373928809099264