Wall Street Punishes $CRM for $TWTR Acquisition Rumors; Mizhuo Warns of Significant Share Decline

Wall Street doesn’t like the idea of a company that sells lead organization software buying a hugely expensive information cyber railroad that is bleeding out losses on a regular basis.

Shares of CRM are getting lit the fuck up on news that they’re the main suitor bidding for social piece of shit, Twitter. The stock is off nearly $5.

Mizhuo is out with a note saying “we think any deal“ (with $TWTR) will likely destroy $12-$17 bln (20-25% of $CRM value).”

I think the CEO of Salesforce, M. Benioff, has finally lost his marbles. For years he’s been saying and doing stupid shit. By acquiring Twitter, he will obtain the crown jewel of stupid shit, effectively plunging his shareholders into red hell — as he tries to sort out the fuckery that Jack built. It’d be a truly horrible deal.

Shares of TWTR are sharply higher on the news of potential bag holders stepping in to save the company.

Now the stock is just $1.60 away from its ipo price.

In a Bloomberg interview this morning, Jeff Currie from Goldman Ballsachs, says there is a fucking wall, mind you, of supply coming to oil markets in 2017. He cites assholes in the shale, to Russia and all the way to Libya as being impediments to capricious price gains and associates these indelible facts as the reason why OPEC chose to freeze oil production at RECORD FUCKING LEVELS.

“We’re still seeing a lot of oil enter this market,” Currie said in an interview with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua. “It’s hard for this market to go above $55.”

“The sweet spot is 2017” for supplies coming from new projects reaching world markets, Currie said. The outlook for an oversupplied market next year drove OPEC’s announcement in Algiers last week that it will cap production at 32.5 million to 33 million barrels a day, he added.

Shale producers are hedging their output as soon as prices climb to a range of $50 to $55 a barrel, allowing them to continue drilling, Currie said. The number of rigs targeting crude in the U.S. has risen for a fifth week to the highest since February, Baker Hughes Inc. said Sept. 30.

While investment in new oil supply has been cut, any shortage in the market is “years off,” Currie said. A “bull state,” where output shortfalls push prices above $100 a barrel, couldn’t happen before 2019 or 2020, he said. Oil futures haven’t traded above $100 since 2014.

I know, this is scandalous blasphemy, especially with WTI kicking ass this morning. Take it up with Goldman and leave me out of it.

I wonder if he really believes the shit that spews from his mouth, or is he simply obsfucating for the benefit of his global masters who want to enslave the planet through fear mongering over controlling the sun?

In this forum, accompanied by DiCaprio, Obama, essentially, puts more blame on climate change than ISIS and radical Islam for the events transpiring in Syria. I suppose it’s a good narrative for him to follow, especially when the truth is the war was started by the Pentagon using weapons that were delivered to terrorists in Libya.

But this makes the whole Islamic terrorist threat seem so minor in the vast celestial scheme of things. The next time your fucking subway car blows up, thanks to a deranged lunatic wearing a suicide vest, blame it on the sun.

There are two things the market needs in order to truly get going. The financial system needs to mend. To do that, the negative rate situation in Europe has to change. Anytime you see a spike in German bund yields, that’s a great things for stocks.

We’re seeing heavy selling in bunds this morning.

The other pillar for a sustained market rally is for there to be strength in crude. We’re getting that this morning too, with WTI nearing $50 — the highest level since June.

Twitter is in talks of being acquired and futures have bounced, now up 30.

The rabbit hole of political correctness, which is designed to disorient and confuse the weak, has worked its way up the DNC — all the way to the candidate for Vice President of the United States.

Watch as Tim Kaine is unable to refer to himself as a man (what a retrograde term), instead calling himself a ‘person.’

I called this shit on Twitter, before this nonsense was said.

Observe.

Tim kaine is catamite personified.

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 5, 2016

The fuck out of here with this shit.

Oh shit. The Bond King, Jeff Gundlach, just dropped a mic on all of you bank lovers out there — pulling Credit Suisse out from his closet — holding it up by its petard and demanding an answer to his question.

WHO THE FUCK WILL BAIL THEM OUT, HUH?

The culprit, you ponder? Negative interest rates and its destructive implementation of horrible economics. Year to date, European banks have shed upwards of $280b in market cap. And in spite of that unfortunate fact, markets have gleefully shot higher — whilst urinating and defecating onto the faces of all of the bank CEOs.

“You cannot save your faltering economy by killing your financial system and one of the clear poster children for this is Deutsche Bank’s stock price,” Gundlach, 56, said at Grant’s Fall 2016 Investment Conference on Tuesday in New York. “If you keep these negative interest rate policies for a sufficient future period of time you are going to bankrupt these banks.”

While the Frankfurt-based bank would ultimately be rescued by the German government if needed, other banks in the region wouldn’t be able to count on such support, Gundlach said.

“Deutsche Bank will be supported by Germany if push comes to shove,” he said. “But what about Credit Suisse, which has shown a similar decline in stock price? Who’s there to bail them out?”

For those tuned in to the fuckery that is the Obama administration, this doesn’t come as news in the traditional sense. There have been numerous reports over the years that have demonstrated a willingness of the Obama administration to arm terrorists in the middle east, sometimes using criminal gangs to disperse said weapons, in order to ‘nation build’ through head cutting proxies.

It is now being revealed, via Politico, that Obama’s DOJ is moving to drop charges against a defense contractor because it would be ’embarrassing’ to both Obama and Clinton — ahead of the election.

A Turi associate asserted that the government dropped the case because the proceedings could have embarrassed Clinton and President Barack Obama by calling attention to the reported role of their administration in supplying weapons that fell into the hands of Islamic extremist militants.

“They don’t want this stuff to come out because it will look really bad for Obama and Clinton just before the election,” said the associate.

In the dismissal motion, prosecutors say “discovery rulings” from U.S. District Court Judge David Campbell contributed to the decision to drop the case. The joint motion asks the judge to accept a confidential agreement to resolve the case through a civil settlement between the State Department and the arms broker.

“Our position from the outset has been that this case never should have been brought and we’re glad it’s over,” said Jean-Jacques Cabou, a Perkins Coie partner serving as court-appointed defense counsel in the case. “Mr Turi didn’t break the law….We’re very glad the charges are being dismissed.”

Under the deal, Turi admits no guilt in the transactions he participated in, but he agreed to refrain from U.S.-regulated arms dealing for four years. A $200,000 civil penalty will be waived if Turi abides by the agreement.

The narrative out of Washington has always relied upon the coincidental and unfortunate seizure of U.S. weapons by terrorists, effectively laying the blame for ISIS driving convoys of brand new American vehicles or Toyota SUVs, without interference from our sophisticated missile systems in the region, on the ineptitude of our Iraqi allies.

The State Department confirmed a deal has been struck with Turi.

“Mr. Turi cooperated with the Department’s Directorate of Defense Trade Controls in its review and proposed administrative settlement of the alleged violations,” said the official, who asked not be named. “Based on a compliance review, DDTC alleged that Mr. Turi…engaged in brokering activities for the proposed transfer of defense articles to Libya, a proscribed destination under [arms trade regulations,] despite the Department’s denial of…requests for the required prior approval of such activities.”

Turi adviser Robert Stryk of the government relations and consulting firm SPG accused the government of trying to scapegoat Turi to cover up Clinton’s mishandling of Libya.

“The U.S. government spent millions of dollars, went all over the world to bankrupt him, and destroyed his life — all to protect Hillary Clinton’s crimes,” he said, alluding to the deadly Sept. 11, 2012 terrorist attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya.

Essentially, the US accused Turi of arming rebels. He wanted to expose the government hypocrisy by exposing their intent to do exactly the same thing. Being that it’s a contentious political season, the DOJ decided it’d be best to simply dismiss the case and forget it ever happened.

Turi was indicted in 2014 on four felony counts: two of arms dealing in violation of the Arms Export Control Act and two of lying to the State Department in official applications. The charges accused Turi of claiming that the weapons involved were destined for Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, when the arms were actually intended to reach Libya.

Turi’s lawyers argued that the shipments were part of a U.S. government-authorized effort to arm Libyan rebels.
But questions about U.S. efforts to arm Libyan rebels have been mounting, since weapons have reportedly made their way from Libya to Syria, where a civil war is raging between the Syrian Government and ISIL-aligned fighters.

During 2013 Senate hearings on the 2012 Benghazi attack, Clinton, under questioning from Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky), said she had no knowledge of weapons moving from Libya into Turkey.

Wikileaks head Julian Assange in July suggested that he had emails proving that Clinton “pushed” the “flows” of weapons “going over to Syria.”
Additionally, Turi’s case had delved into emails sent to and from the controversial private account that Clinton used as Secretary of State, which the defense planned to harness at any trial.

At a court hearing in 2015, Cabou said emails between Clinton and her top aides indicated that efforts to arm the rebels were — at a minimum — under discussion at the highest levels of the government.

“We’re entitled to tell the jury, ladies and gentlemen of the jury, the Secretary of State and her highest staff members were actively contemplating providing exactly the type of military assistance that Mr. Turi is here to answer for,” the defense attorney said, according to a transcript.
Turi’s defense was pressing for more documents about the alleged rebel-arming effort and for testimony from officials who worked on the issue the State Department and the CIA. The defense said it planned to argue that Turi believed he had official permission to work on arms transfers to Libya.

In summary, Clinton and Obama ousted and killed Gaddafi, flooded the streets of Libya with American weapons, which were explicitly placed into the hands of terrorists, who then used said weapons to start a civil war in Iraq and Syria. But let’s talk about Trump’s fat fuck of a beauty pageant winner and his tax write offs from 21 years ago instead.

If we were to move the discussion over to Deutsche Bank and their $50t in notional value derivatives book, I’d tell you there is much to fear. But the whole idea that the Fed, ECB and BOJ will all of a sudden stop propping up markets, in favor of tight monetary policy is so absurd — it borders on the delusional. I don’t know how these people are able to carry on these discussions on the teevee. I wouldn’t be able to do it for more than a minute, without having a Tourette’s style cursing outburst — accompanied by extreme acts of violence.

Gold is a buy here, even though it looks horrendous. The technicals are dreadful. The sellers are piling in and the shorts are vigorous. It has been a losing position of mine, almost immediately after buying them. But I am sticking with them, as part of an asset allocation programme, because it’s my belief that central banks cannot stop demeaning themselves or the monetary base without causing massive dislocations in the marketplace.

In other words, if they hiked rates and the ECB ceased their QE programmes, the markets would get fucked so hard and so fast, the losses I’d endure in GLD would be readily offset by both my bond and FCX short positions — with ease.

Timing bottoms is another ridiculous adventure, so don’t expect a hooker with cocaine at your front door tomorrow morning.

Here’s the predictive oscillator in Exodus. New lows. It’s worth noting, GLD isn’t oversold yet on out 12 mo algorithm so far. And, today’s drop in GLD was the 13th largest since 2009. Looking back, it reminded me of the drop on December the 14th, 2011.

Admittedly, there’s an aspect of schadenfreude on behalf of CNBC here — inviting Wall Street’s poster child for gold on a day that it’s being destroyed. Nevertheless, Schiff presses on, relentlessly, in robotic fashion — discussing topics that are near and dear to him, such as Federal Reserve chicanery, a rigged market and faux recovery, and lastly, the prospect of the Fed doing ‘what they really want to do’: enacting a negative rate policy.

It’s all fair play on the SS Titanic, whether it’s a real vessel or not is immaterial. As long as the idea of it lives, uncertainty and men like Schiff get to scare the shit out of people on a regular basis.

There are several things weighing on the precious minds of investors. First is BREXIT. Then it’s the specter of a laughable Fed interest rate hike. On December the 4th, 2016, the people of Italy get to vote on whether to say ciao to the EU or not. And, lastly, European QE is scheduled to conclude in March.

In March of 2017, the losers at the ECB will end their Frankenstonian experiment in the debt markets — paving the way for a blow out in yields for the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain).

“QE is due to run until March 2017, and the most likely outcome to us is that it goes on for at least another six months at 80 billion euros per month after that,” said Marchel Alexandrovich, senior European economist at Jefferies International Ltd. in London. “Later in 2017, the ECB could think about tapering, and say try to wind down the program in March 2018, but these are hypothetical exit strategies, not something the ECB will likely implement for a while. Ultimately, the decision will be driven by the outlook for inflation.”

While the ECB’s final decision will depend on the euro area’s economic outlook, it will also be affected by the success of attempts to address a scarcity of assets to buy. The Governing Council has tasked its committees with considering adjustments to QE, such as loosening self-imposed rules that make some bonds ineligible. The next policy meetings are scheduled for Oct. 20, Dec. 8, Jan. 19 and March 9.

Even when QE finishes, the ECB’s balance sheet won’t shrink immediately. The central bank has already committed to reinvest the cash from maturing bonds. That means the stimulus effect will be maintained until the end of 2020, Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot said last month.

I find it very hard to believe Portuguese bond wills remain low yielding after QE ends. The whole idea around QE was to rig the rates that were diverging from Germany, in an effort to save the union. All of this might be moot, if in fact the Italians vote to leave on December the 4th.

The fear of this gigantic tit being stripped away from markets is having an onerous effect on stocks and the precious metals, with the Dow off by 120 and silver cascading lower by 5.5%. Market breadth stands at 28% for the day, so the selling isn’t isolated to just a few sectors. But, for the most part, the serious damage has been cordoned off in rate sensitive industries, like utilities, REITs, gold and big dividend payers.

Ridiculously, bonds are selling off aggressively — due to comments by a non-voting Fed member who is calling for a most obscene 100bps hike.

And then there’s the issue of having to unwind the whole thing.