Considering we’re the marginal buyer of all of their crap, I’d say this is more of a rebuke of our goldilocks story than theirs.
Output slumped 6.2 percent after rising 3.7 percent in January, the trade ministry said on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 5.9 percent drop.
“Exports remained weak amid a slowdown in demand in China and other emerging Asian nations,” Yasuhiro Takahashi, an economist at Nomura Securities in Tokyo, said before the data. Even taking out the impact of Toyota, overall production was weak, and the economy is at risk of contracting again this quarter, he said.
Japanese GDP is forecasted to come in at 0.6%. Should it post a negative number, it would represent a recession for the Japanese economy, the second since Abe took power in 2012.
So much for Abenomics.
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I love “most-since” headlines. They are by any measure predominantly somber.
In other news, Nikkei futures are up 30.
If low interest rates stimulate growth, then after 20 years, shouldn’t Japan have a booming economy by now?
Demographics are destroying Japan.
Working-age population has been declining for about 20 years now, and overall population has started to fall. Projections are that by 2030, population will be back close to the 1980 number. By 2060, it would be at the 1950 number.
There’s no economic policy that can hold up against such strong demographic headwinds.