iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,474 Blog Posts

China’s Economy is Not Showing Signs of Transition: Both Output and Retail Sales Miss Expectations

The big lie, or the narrative that is being promoted by China and their apologists, is that the Chinese economy is slowing because it is transitioning away from slave factories to a decadent American styled consumption based economy. This, of course, is complete horseshit, as the farmers in the countryside make like $6 per day, unable to afford anything for sale inside of the luxury outposts being built across the country.

This is disastrous news of the first magnitude. It debunks all theories that state the Chinese economy isn’t slipping into a well greased hell hole.
output

retail

Markets probably won’t reel from this news because we’re in bull mode. But it should dive lower, if the news were truly ingested for what it is: toxic for growth and equity valuations.

Kiss the 6.5% Chinese GDP numbers goodbye.

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17 comments

  1. prospectus

    The vertical scale on those Bloomberg charts is dogshit. What a bunch of hacks.

    I agree that China is going full-Rubio though

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  2. sarjoy

    Me Chinese me play joke

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  3. braveflaps

    You had me at well-greased [no homo].

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  4. ironbird

    Boolish cats and dogs.

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  5. grandmaster

    It won’t matter b/c “we’re in bull mode” or its already baked in…

    US companies that sell to China (think YUM) have already had their dicks cut off. The rest are rebounding because the market is seeing lots of OIL production being taken off line.

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  6. pb

    “Most people are aware we’ve had a credit boom in China but they don’t know the scale. At the beginning of all of this in 2008, the Chinese banking sector was roughly $10 trillion in size. Right now it’s in the order of $24 to $25 trillion.

    “That incremental increase of $14 to $15 trillion is the equivalent of the entire size of the US commercial banking sector, which took more than a century to build. So that means China will have replicated the entire US system in the span of half a decade.” – Charlene Chu

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  7. stockslueth

    I wonder what Mr. Bow Tie thinks now? He’s short America and Long China, wondering now how long he can hang on. He’s probably hedged short term but he’ll never tell you that. There’s nothing they say that’s really actionable.

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    • frog

      Even Mr. Bow Tie can be wrong.

      There are plenty of folks who do very well in the markets until they don’t. And once they have a large amount of money, it may not make much difference in their standard of living if they lose half of their money. Perhaps we shouldn’t be looking to people for investment advice where it wouldn’t make much difference in their standard of living if they lose half of their money– unless we are in that same boat.

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  8. pb

    Unrelated, but relevant: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-boj-insight-idUSKCN0WG04E

    “Sources told Reuters the BOJ was set to discuss exempting some funds from the negative rates, after the securities industry warned that investment money would be driven into bank deposits, which would not help Abe’s hopes of getting cash put to more productive use to boost the economy.”

    Hopes? More like “force”. And that, in a nutshell, is the very heart of the Keynesian insanity. True communist countries – which were theoretically in total control of their “economies” – could not force the people to do their bidding. It didn’t work for them and it won’t work for us.

    Capital comes from savings. You can’t print it. And it must be voluntarily invested to have any hope of success.

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  9. tradingnymph

    Been amazed since 2009 that the world has bought this China Story…but that is the key element for a bubble, people have to believe that Tulips are worth something.

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    • blahblahblah

      not everyone. they spent whatever was needed to convince the world they were not just a bunch of ricers by fronting the 2008 Beijing Olympics. i’ll follow the DAX if I need a global lead on markets.

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      • tradingnymph

        DAX? Geman’s largest trading partner is China…so you are just looking at the other side of the coin. Australia gives you insight into global growth. Maybe seeing how the DAX, well actually CAC and FTSE open and move the first hour will tell you how the US will move…but lagger not leader as a indicator.

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  10. bexpo

    How are you suppose to read those graphs? Are January & February together at 5.4% ? it can’t mean January was 5.4% & February was 5.4% as well? That’s why next bar is so tiny? What a terrible confusing bar graphic.

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    • tradercaddy

      I wouldn’t worry about it.
      They will figure it out by the time it hits the standardized common core math test.
      Just hope it does not become a double bar graph.

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  11. blahblahblah

    oh look a weed squeeze in GWPH. shorts will need to puff n pass a LOT

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