The Fed Threatens to Raise Rates At Least 3 Times Per Day

Its been about 1 hour since the last Fed governor threatened to raise rates. Therefore, Fed Williams, the consummate underachieving misfit, felt it incumbent upon himself to step into the fray, in order to see his put contracts rise in value.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams on Thursday renewed his call for an interest-rate hike “sometime later this year,” citing near-full employment and rapidly rising house prices that may be a sign of excessive economic optimism

“Excessive economic optimism”, Fed Williams says.

BEHOLD:

Literally fuck my life. No words.

The Dow was off 200 points earlier, now down just 40. Basic material names are leading the way, which is a net positive all things considered.

News of Apple possibly cutting back on semiconductor orders had the stock sucking dick earlier today. Now the stock is off by less than 1%.

Large cap stocks in the green include GOOGL, MSFT, HDB, WFC, AMZN, JPM and PG.

Using the real time momentum screener inside Exodus, the following stocks are at the highs of the session:

CELG, BID, VMW, SOL, CHTR, SQM, NAT, LH, JBLU and NOW.

Should the markets go back down towards the lows of the day, I fully expect centaurs from hell to appear on the NYSE tomorrow morning, kicking traders headlong into the machines and making a big mess about things, as a general observation.

NOTE: The S&P is now flat, reversing a 20 point deficit.

This has to be the most dysfunctional Fed since its charter was created. Between the Fed Chief mouth vomiting to end her speeches and her band of incompetents gallivanting around the country, clamoring for rate hikes, we are certainly fucked this Fed meeting on 10/28–right near Hallows eve, coincidentally, aka “The Fly’s” favorite holiday.

As I look at the deflationary vortex and toss things into it, I am truly amazed at Janet Yellen. I’d like science to seize her brain upon death and examine it for defects, for the benefit of the world. I feel it’s important that we begin to understand how the distorted mind works. The mind that alters, alters all.

For some reason, the Federal Reserve, and all its “Fed Governors” (they’re not really governors, but lackeys who play fetch with the chief), do not look at the news, nor the stock market. They do not see entire commodity driven sectors off by 40% over the past 3 months, or the price of crude dropping like an anvil from $100 to $44 in less than a year.

Our dollar is at new highs, up 15% over 1 year. As such, our Fortune 500 companies are bearing a horrible brunt with their overseas businesses.

The bottom line is this: The Fed is using a strong labor market as an excuse to raise rates. None of their inflation targets have been hit and there is no reason to believe inflation is on the horizon either, considering that the single largest avenue for high wage employment (oil and gas) has been shut the fuck down.

What they should be talking about is another round of QE. Instead, we must wait for them to knock on our doors, this Halloween, and hope they do not stab us in the faces upon opening it.

Get rid of all the people. Hurricane Joaquin is barreling its way towards the east coast of the United Steaks, as the hand of God, to correct the stock markets for good. Nothing would please me more than to wake up to a wasteland, the Statue of Liberty floating by my house, alongside all of the bridges.

Markets are weak today because Wall Street is pricing in the complete and utter destruction of the eastern part of the United Steaks.

More on this later.

Fed Lacker is out and about trying to destroy the nation this morning, decrying the possibility of an October rate hike.

As we circle jerk down the drain, I am reminded of how the Fed, led by that lunatic Greenspan, kept raising rates in 2006–despite the fact that housing was derailing.

Markets are near session lows, off 50 NASDAQS, coming off the worst quarter for stocks since 2011–and fucking Fed Lacker is making a speech about raising rates NOW.

Please tell me this isn’t happening in real life.

In other news, TWTR is still a retarded corporation, one that was thrusted upon the people by the anti-christ himself.

Based off historical seasonality trends, the following stocks have outperformed all others in the past.

ETF,  Month’s Up %, Average Monthly Return

XPP, 100%, +11.6%

TQQQ, 80%, 11.35%

FAS, 83%, 8.23%

Stock, Month’s Up %, Average Monthly Return

V, 85%, 4.75%

MA, 88%, 7.2%

GS, 81%, 4.79%

DEO, 78%, 3.1%

MS, 77%, 5.4%%

CTSH, 76%, 10.7%

VLKPY, 100%, 16.4%

NXPI, 80%, 8.8%

NDAQ, 76%, 5.8%

UNFI, 77%, 3%

INTU, 77%, 8%

MSTR, 77%, 20%

GNRC, 80%,19%

AAL, 90%, 15%

DAL, 87%, 13%

BBW, 80%, 10%

Overall, October is the single best month for the market, historically.

For full report, member of Exodus click here

Caixin/Markit, a private survey done without government “help”, revealed that China’s economy is effectively in ruins, at 6 year lows. This, of course, ties in pretty nicely with the cataclysmic events that have harangued commodity related stocks over the past quarter.

Without China, commodity producers are like dicks without balls.

On that news, because we live in bizarro land, futures are flying, alongside Asian indices.

It was a quarter spawned from hell, at the behest of evil men who live near active volcanos amongst savage tribes. I faired poorly, getting deballed to the tune of 15%, placing my YTD returns at around 10-13%. Who’s counting anyways?

The following are the winners and losers of Q3, grouped by market cap. At the end are the reported holdings and 3 month returns of Greenlight Capital. Naturally, I am unsure as to the nature of his downside hedges. But his portfolio of concentrated “value” stocks treaded dreadfully the entire quarter. I am sure his losses are severe.

BIG CAP WINNERS

MIDCAP WINNERS

SMALL CAP WINNERS

And now for the losers.

BIG CAP

MID CAP

SMALL CAP

David Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital’s basket of hand woven defeat

Three cheers for the short sellers who profited from the misery of the majority.

I am calling for a 10% upward move in the NASDAQS for the month of October. Now that Twitter assigned a new incompetent, Jack Dorsey, to run that company into the dirt, all is well.

My favorite stocks down here are AMCX, SHAK, JAZZ, CLX and TWTR. I know that contradicts my previous sentence about the company being drilled into the ground. That’s sort of the point. We’re supposed to go lower. But we won’t. Then when we’re supposed to go higher, we’ll go lower. Everyone loses, ultimately. The house (Goldman Ball Sachs) always wins.

At the end of October, I will begin, in earnest, buying up oil and gas shares. I am strictly using seasonality stats for this position.

Alas, I am relieved we’re entering Q4, despite the fact that we’re not out of the woods yet. Plenty of market turmoil has transpired in October. However, considering the recent damage done to the markets, coupled with strong seasonal trends supporting an October rise, I like my chances long here–teetering on the brink of disaster.

What are your top picks heading into Q4?

I don’t know which coffee conglomerate made today a holiday– but I’m not exactly opposed to it. I have a long, rich, history with coffee. It all started out when I was a punk nobody cold caller, trying to get jacked up on caffeine, so that I could muster up the courage to get hung up on 400 times per day. My gateway coffee was the frappacino. I’d make sure that fucker was lathered with extra whipped cream and lots of chocolate syrup. What the fuck did I care? I was 150lbs wet.

Then I moved on and progressed to a more serious version of coffee. My coffee mentor was, naturally, a sociopath and him and I did great things together. He introduced me to iced coffee with milk, with 5 sugars, and I loved it. I’d go down to the local deli and order that fucker, rip 5 bags of sugar into it, then proceed to cold call until my fingers started to bleed.

After a while, the sugar was a bit gratuitous. I had gained 40 pounds, likely due to all of that fucking sugar’d coffee I was drinking, so I moved onto other forms. I tried espresso and hated it. I never tried a latte or cappuccino, but I disliked how the words rolled off my tongue, so I avoided them. Then I found Dunkin’ Donuts and loved it. By this time I only needed two sugars to please my palette and I was good to go, wired the fuck up for a day filled with unsolicited phone calls.

As I matured and money started to roll in, I felt Dunkin’ Donuts was a very blue collar’d existence, as it pertained to coffee. Naturally, the smartest thing for me to do, as some of you probably remember through my blogs, was to get addicted to MONSTER ENERGY SODA. I popped those fuckers, tall cans, 3 times per day. I wasn’t cold calling anymore. Instead, I was blogging like the wind, banning people from reading me–dealing with financial turmoil. Those were the days.

Fast forward to now, I have a very sophisticated coffee palette. I stopped using the disgusting Keurig device several years ago. I grind my own beans and French Press them into a cup, barren from sugar or milk. I enjoy the taste of espresso and would never drink a frappaccino. A few years ago, I tried a latte and was hooked. I can jimmy rig one myself, at home, simply by brewing espresso beans with very little water, French Press it, then mix with frothed milk.

My favorite coffee shoppe, locally, is Small World Coffee in Princeton. My favorite coffee of all time, believe it or not, is made by Starbucks. For a while I was hooked on their flat white, which was a B version of Small World’s fantastic latte. But then SBUX changed the coffee game with their CLOVER MACHINE. Holy shit, you guys need to try it. I’ve tried all of their fancy beans, but good olde fashioned French Roast is still #1. It’s like an inverse french press that calibrates temperature and brew time to produce the world’s best coffee ever.

As an aside, I hate Turkish coffee, so don’t try to sell me on it. The entire country of Turkey hasn’t produced a single edible product in well over 1,000 years.