The Sun Also Rises; Japan Passes Record Military Budget

The Abe government is partaking in all sorts of spending, as their population focuses its energy on masturbating to pictures of robots and anime. The older generation,  decrepit as shit, generally disgusted with the impetuous youth, can do nothing but lever up the economy until the fucking thing falls apart.

The 5.1 trillion yen ($42 billion) spending package for the year starting April is an increase of 1.5 percent from the current fiscal year, marking the fourth straight annual rise under the administration of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. It accounts for just over 5 percent of the overall 96.7 trillion yen budget, also approved Thursday.

Major purchases include:

• 173 billion yen for an Aegis-equipped anti-ballistic missile ship
• 108 billion yen for six F-35A fighter aircraft
• 103 billion yen for 17 SH-60K patrol helicopters
• The figure also includes increased funding for the realignment of U.S. troops in Japan and a new government plane for use by the prime minister on foreign trips

The budget is the first since parliament passed legislation this summer to expand the role of Japan’s military to enable the nation to assist an ally under attack. The legislation led to rare public demonstrations in Japan that triggered a plunge in support for the Abe government.

Or, they can always invade China again and get into the concubine business, seize rice supplies, and partake in Frankensteinian medical experiments.

Aside from your newly minted CEO being arrested on fraud charges, your CFO, Christopher Thorn, and bullshit accounting firm, Marcum llp, stepping down too, your stock is going to get smashed into clown pieces when it reopens for trade–whenever the fuck that might be.

Shares of KBIO have been halted since the downfall of Shkreli, who was summarily fired from the role of CEO at Kalobios.

To make matters worse, NASDAQ is delisting the stock, as they are uninterested in being associated with such cellar dwellers.

What goes up…

Put aside the fundamental concerns for a moment. Stocks do not move on fundies in the near term. They move on supply and demand, guided by emotions. Right now, people are greedy. They’re greedy little fuckers clamoring for some of that Xmas present money back. Traders are bearing witness to an epic short squeeze in oil and automatically want to fade it because they hate oil.

Let’s take the emotion out of it and view the movements according to Exodus.

This is an oscillator for the oil and gas exploration space, which is up 7% for the day. The chart you see is our predictive algorithm designed for this specific sector, taking into account the raw commodity movement, technical and fundamental factors of each stock in the group. As you can see, there are definable lines in the sand that can/have been traded on over the past year.

The chart is starting towards overbought, but not there yet. If we get a minor pullback in the sector, we can see the median return for this sector sprint by another 10-20% before it gets overheated.

My top pick in the sector is SN. Other commodity stocks that I like and own are PAH and FCX.

We launched Exodus in April of 2015, after 5 years of hard and deliberate work. Our previous iteration of the software, The PPT, was fantastic, but lacked many of the modern accoutrements that traders need to survive the pangs of the market today. I attribute all of my 2015 success to Exodus and hope that members of this distinguished league of gentlemen and ladies enjoyed it too.

Since 2009, our oversold signal stands at the apex of market timing algorithms, 77%.

As you see the market ripping today, members know that 7 and 8 trading days ago, the system registered two oversold signals and has been flagging OS for TQQQ the past few days.

Things to look forward to in 2016.

-Jeff Macke joins us in the user notes section and blog to provide exclusive content to members.
-Putting my risk analyzer algorithm into code and launching it with an Exodus portfolio mechanism.
-Multiple tech upgrades that every member will appreciate, plus a more hands on approach to guiding members on how to best use algorithms when trading.

Just shut up already, you bunch of blue beard savages soiling these great halls with your presence.

Throughout the year of our Lord, 2015, “The Fly” bobbed and weaved, crafted a work of art of a different sort for the reader class novice piker investor. You were beholden to market mastery of a different varietal, a story of a man trying to hold on to dear life. His gains were very bountiful in the beginning; but the market tested him, over and over again–attempting to vanquish him and smash his cranium about the rocks and the sea.

I stand before you a victorious man, one who has weathered to storm of perfidy and has come out a better man for it.

My largest positions aren’t moving higher today, but sprinting. The commodity run that I envisioned, through sagely intercourse with logic and imagination, has produced fruits by which I am now eating before you.

PAH, FCX and SN are all making my pagan Xmas very joyous. Very joyous, INDEUD.

To celebrate today’s triumph, I’ve taken liberties to buy more SN and FCX.

Don't Bet Against Me from iBC on Vimeo.

This guy is a super asshole for spewing out a prediction like that. It has #timestamp written all over it. Believe you me, no one wants an up market more than me. There is nothing that I want more, than to toss bowling balls filled with dynamite sticks, at the bedlamites in the Zerohedge comments section. However, I’d have to be clinically insane to get myself dressed up in suit and tie, splash on some of my best cologne, then tell people from teevee land that the market had a 96% chance of being up next year, based on some hare brained assumptions.

And they’re set to surge here as well. Mining stocks are enjoying their biggest rally in 10 weeks, over in Europe. It looks like we’re gonna have ourselves a run of the mill “death to shorts” Santa Claus squeeze here too.

Aluminum for delivery in three months climbed 0.8 percent to $1,519 a metric ton by 11:07 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange after reaching $1,524.50 a ton, the highest since Nov. 27.

Here are some heavily shorted mining and/or steel names to watch into this melt up.

X -65% ytd

TCX -72% ytd

CENX -82% ytd

FCX -71% ytd

CLF -77% ytd

AKS -62% ytd

JOY -70% ytd

Lots of jargon regarding euro-crude correlation, seasonal trends, investor despondency etc.

Although I cringe at the idea of ignoring the mountains of oil and gas debt coming due in 2017 and beyond, I am somewhat open to the idea of a Jedi light-saber strike to the faces of oil shorts might be a likely scenario.

This is a gem.

I am sure somewhere in the bible, the sages who wrote it told us to eat Christmas trees for medicinal purposes. Nevertheless, to eschew from drinking camel milk and urine is just plain racist of you. Embrace the holy book and all of its teachings. Sop from the tits of camels and deliver his nourishing excretions for your bodily benefits. BEHOLD the camel in all of its glory.

The Muslim holy book contains quotes from the prophet Muhammad and it says: ‘Some people of Ukl or Uraina tribes came to Medina (in Saudi Arabia) and the climate did not suit them.
‘So the Prophet ordered them to go to the herd of (milk) camels and to drink their milk and urine (as medicine).

‘So they went as directed and afterwards they became healthy.’

The only problem with this tale of joy and wonder is the owner of this specialty health shoppe was pissing in bottles and falsely labeling it as camel piss drink. The House of Saud have confiscated 70 bottles of fraudelent camel urine beverage, much to the delight of honest and legitimate vendors of the ancient elixir.

There were over 37,000 deals in 2015, amounting to $4.2 trillion. Both Goldman and Morgan Stanley managed about $1.4 trillion in transactions, making 2015 the best year ever.

“We are in the late stages of the M&A cycle but there is still room left to run,” said Gary Posternack, global head of mergers & acquisitions of Barclays Plc in a phone interview. “Next year, we will see a lower value of deals overall but probably a higher number of deals. This year has been dominated by the mega deals and it’s likely that will slow down.”

“There has been a spasm of very large, uncontroversial deals that have either been done, or looked at and decided against. The number of that type of deals will likely fall going into next year,” said Peter Tague, global head of M&A at Citigroup Inc., “but the biggest markets are typically underpinned by a lot of mid-sized deals — and there are plenty of those ahead.”

Good news, right?

Maybe not. The previous two top M&A years were 2002 and 2007. We all know what happened in 2008. Deals were also expensive–the most expensive ever, with acquirers paying more than 1.68x sales.

Nevertheless, the merger and acquisition departments at both Goldman and Morgan are going to be enjoying grandiose bonuses this holiday season. We can all find solace in knowing that, as we barrel into the final days of trade in a cloud of uncertainty.