$TWTR is a Huge Loser

I just read that Chubb is offering insurance to people who’ve been cyber-bullied. They cite “trolls” as being a cause for concern and loss of income and even possible relocation. Chubb endeavors to help you with your trolling disaster expenses and will assist you in your road to recovery.

The fuck out of here with this shit!

What the hell is wrong with people and why isn’t TWTR going higher today? Where is Sacca to tell us how awesome Periscope is and why isn’t the Arab spring happening anymore?

All of these questions, AND MORE, should be answered for me by the end of trading.

Early action in stocks is encouraging, despite Tim Cook’s designs on escaping his Federal tax burden.

Biotech, commodities and tech are higher. Copper is diverging from oil, a good sign for FCX.

Truth be told: I am seriously considering going to a large cash position before year end. I need to mull it over this week.

I can’t wait to visit the family this pagan Xmas, where everyone will gather around the tree and stare into the abyss of their fucking cellphones.

Twitter is huge loser.

The end.

The obvious choice is Disney. They’ll make money off the movie, licensing and the parks. This is more of a long tail play for DIS, since the immediate earnings won’t really move the needle. Long term, however, the new Star Wars movies will be extremely lucrative.

Both MAT and HAS have deals in place to market Star Wars related merchandise. Hasbro has the better deal in place; but MAT could use some earnings help, after seeing it stock nearly cut in half the past few years.

The theatres will crush it off ticket sales, namely RGC, AMC and IMAX. A smaller capped theatre company is CKEC, who will also benefit from the bonanza.

EA has an exclusive 10 yr deal with DIS to create games. I bet you didn’t know that. Now you do.

Last but not least is JAKK. They’re a small toy company with a big deal to make small, 18-36 inch, Star Wars figurines. If JAKK is able to execute on this opportunity, the stock could be ripe for a move higher.

All in all, it was a great movie, brilliantly executed.

Remember when oil going lower meant MOAR money to be spent at Banana Republic and Chipotle? Well, where the fuck did all the gas savings go? Did Kylo Ren seize all of the excess reserves to build a brand new fucking death star?

Well…where the fuck did the money go?

Brent is at an 11 yr low. Futures are up 100. European markets are surging ahead and we’re oversold like a motherfucker. However, it’s worth noting, Exodus did not flag oversold last week.

Nevertheless, we’re heading towards the end of 2015, which has been extraordinarily bad year, and volume is going to dry up and investors are desperate for a rally. All of the ingredients for an end of year respite are present. Moreover, it’s entirely possible that we get a truly face ripping event in early January, led by the very lowest stocks in the galaxy: CHK, SN, OAS, FCX and other commodity names.

After all, has a sector ever been so hated?

Bear in mind, the hatred of an industry isn’t reason enough to invest in it. If they trade up, don’t disillusion yourself. It will only be a trade.

Good luck.

I read this story on bbg and had to share it.

Let me get this straight. Oil collapses to $35 per barrel. As a result, the entire industry is in shambles, forcing companies to fire workers, close down fields, en masse, and the droids on bloomberg think everything is okay. Nothing to worry about, since the true danger lies in 2017.

Give me a fucking break.

Question for you stock market lovers out there.

If you knew a hedge fund had to liquidate his largest position by next month because of redemptions and you were short that stock, patiently waiting for it to fall, would you: A. cover the short ahead of the fund collapsing? Or, B: short more, knowing that a big seller was soon going to hit the stock, giving you a once in a life time trade to bank coin?

Look at the debt schedule for the oil and gas sector.

To believe this mountain of distressed debt will somehow resolve itself is more than naive, but straight up stupid. These analysts are hoping the price will rise, in order to alleviate the debt burden. Well, what if it doesn’t? Don’t you think Saudi Arabia, Exxon Mobile and other major oil conglomerates want the weak players out of the way? Isn’t it feasible that the price of crude will stay depressed for years to come to ensure the complete destruction of the Bakken Shale?

Don’t hold your breath waiting for a miracle– and certainly do not believe the horseshit coming out the media and the bedraggled microbes, who pose as analysts, when they tell you that crude down 65% from the highs isn’t a big deal.

NOTE: All 2016 predictions from the iBC crew will be posted, exclusively, on our Facebook page. Bluestar’s have been posted tonight.

Some of you know, I am an avid collector of books. I do not purchase paper’d backed trash. Those I use to heat up the logs in my fireplace. I only buy first edition classics, or leatherbound works of art. Since one of you requested a non-finance recommendation list of fine literary works, I thought I’d use this venue to share my favorites.

For those of you saddened by the absence of a movie recommendation, go see THE BIG SHORT. I heard it was really good.

Over the past two years, I’ve been obsessed with the Robber Barrons. This happened after I visited the quaint town of Newport, RI, and got to bear witness to the monuments those lunatics built for themselves. A similiar home of quality and size can be found at Frick House, NYC, which is now an art museum.

What fascinated me about the Newport crowd wasn’t the enormity of their wealth, but how they lost it. To me, the homes didn’t represent grandeur or eloquence, but instead arrogance, narcissm and careless regard for the safekeeping of wealth.

The old Commodore Vanderbilt built an empire that should have lasted a thousand years. Instead, it was squandered in less than 50.

Some of my favorite books this past year, on this topic, include: Fortune’s Children, Farewell to Fifth Avenue and When the Astor’s Ruled NYC. I’ve read many more than those three; but those were my favorites.

My favorite books of all time, without question, are:

The Count of Monte Cristo

Rum Diaries

The Great Gatsby

The Sun also Rises

War and Peace

Scaramouche

Without a doubt, Dumas is the best writer of all time. His prose is both easy to read and eloquent. No one tells a tale like him. Speaking of tales, Dickens is no slouch either. But the issue that I have with Dickens is that his stories tend ot drag on, especially towards the end. He was a master in the english language and an authority on how writers should approach a story. But, for some of you half illiterates out there, he might be a bit too much for you to handle right now.

Start off with Dumas, Fitzgerald and Hemmingway. You’ll thank me later.

KRAMPUS is definitely on his way this year, the evil elf who killed Santa and wants to steal your children. In this case, he wants your stocks. He’s going to snatch them from your portfolios and ground them into clown dust.

Markets have been free-falling after people realized how fucking nuts the Fed and Yellen and Plosser truly are. They aren’t one and done! Are you paying attention to their fucking “dot plot?” They have a plan to get rates back to 4% (lolz) by 2018, which would entail 15 additional hikes.

Do you know what will happen by the time the Fed hikes for the 16th time? We will all be living in a Mad Max world and Le Fly will be a warlord, the thing he was born to be, doling out fresh water supplies to his loyal subjects.

Just today, Fed’s lacker said the January meeting is a live meeting, meaning they might hike again. You’ve got to be fucking kidding me right?

The Fed stole Christmas. Stocks are doomed and the fate of western finance is in the hands of a cromagnon from Kansas, who stores his own refuse in mason jars to fertlize the corn crops in his backyard.

Happy holiday’s!

SUNE is +88% over the past 2 weeks.

RUN is +71%, SCTY is +61%, TERP +58%, ASYS +42% and a slew of others are +30%–all over the past two weeks. While it’s true, the bill passed by congress will usher in at least $40 billion in U.S. investment by 2020, more than double the number of jobs in the industry, to over 420,000–it’s also a moronic thing to chase stocks up this much into a low volume, elevator cable snapped into shaft type of market.

What can go wrong, right?

Then again, remember when ethanol was going to take the country by storm or how cyber security stocks were slam dunks?

Moderate yourselves, young plebs. Nothing is a sure thing, but death and taxes. Just two weeks ago, SUNE was heading for bankruptcy. Now everyone loves them.

Even with the recent run, median p/s are almost half of what they were last year. For 2015, FSLR is the biggest winner, up 43%. But, overall, the sector is down 7%. I must admit, given the carnage in oil, I would have expected solar stocks to all but melt away. But they’ve been resiliant and have the backing of the U.S. govt.

In other words, if you must own these stocks, consider dollar cost averaging. I assure you they will come in.

Who else is working on a Friday after noon, ahead of a drunken week of holiday festivities? “The Fly” is a man of the people.

I thought we’d get a rally. Instead, it looks like we’re getting the opposite, a rout into the bell. All of the little things that looked promising have been neutralized and are now starting to look grey. Very soon, the blackness of this market will infect everything, thrusting us into an uncontrollable vortex of capital destruction.

At this stage, you have several choices.

1. Hold the line; pray for better times.

2. Hedge out market risk via index puts/inverse ETFs.

3. Go to cash and regroup.

I imagine many of you are contemplating the latter, after an arduous year of false starts and half-measures. Do not pity yourselves because others are losing too. That’s loser talk. If you want to make a difference in your portfolios and net worth, it begins with action. Hoping for better times isn’t an investable theme.

At the present, my largest positions are JAZZ, PAH and SHAK. Next week, inside of Exodus, I will be revealing my GARP index for 2016, something I update every 6 month’s, a quasi semi-annually managed portfolio of 15 stocks. Also, I am going to begin a short basket, in order to hedge against the systematic risk that my current portfolio has.

Let’s see what the final of hour spells: rebound or doom.

Breadth is still at 31%. Oil is barely down, which is like up for oil. Silver, gold and solar are higher, the holy trinity of every investor’s portfolio. Copper is also higher; I’m a fan of FCX.

One sector that is raising one of my eyebrows, if not both, are the truckers.

What the heck is going on there? I suppose truckers are lazy sloth like creatures anyway. But we still need food and goods delivered, no? Or, will Amazon send it all via drone?

On a PE basis, the truckers haven’t been this cheap since 2006, trading at 15x. The price to sales ratio is 0.85, a 65% discount to the overall market, again not seen since 2007. Come to think of it, that might not be a good thing, as the market imploded to hell in 2008. One thing is for certain, this isn’t your grandfather’s market, unless grandpa traded the 1929 crash.

Be mindful of the systemic risk that is currently present in the high yield space and how each downtick in your favorite oil stock lends to further deterioration in the credit outlook.

By my calculations, oil needs to rally 20% from current levels in order to quell the fears of high yield. If we get a face ripping rally in oil, many distressed, high debt/eq names will barrel higher by 50%, just like last year. If you recall, the oil and gas space caught fire last year and we all made a small fortune early going. If oil is to rally, it will rally between the month’s of January through March, leading up to the driving season.

I bet you don’t read that often, amidst a 230 point cave clubbing. But the internals are really good for such a large decline, with 40% of stocks trading up for the day.

As a matter of fact, all of my top positions are up. What sort of madness is this?

This is quadruple witching day, into the teeth of Santa’s sled. Odd divergences are afoot, as investors wrestle with themselves betweenn listening to the angel vs demon on their shoulder.

For me, this trade is pretty simple. If there’s ever a time of year to be optimistic, it is now. During 2016, we are going to be harangued by awful, awful things, including the elections. But now is the time to stick our heads in the sand and make believe all is well.

I am long equities with the fervor of 10,000 Mum-a-rahs. Do not fret another 200 point downtick on Monday. That’s a super low probability outcome. Plus anyway, it’s only money. I am sure you can get back out there and make a new fortune.

Le Fly remains 95% long into this faux crash.