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Yearly Archives: 2015

Russian Ruble Plunges to New Lows

Remember when everyone was so freaked out about the ruble crashing and the Russian central bank used currency reserves to prop it up? There were even reports that people were buying iPhones to use them as currency, in a fucked up barter system.

Well, don’t look now (no do look, really you should), but the ruble is completely in the toilet–hitting new lows, hanging out with its good pal crude oil.

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All of the petrol currencies are under pressure. This trade is a very simple one: crude lower/rubles lower- Putin goes to war to boost approval ratings.

Any questions?

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U.S. Oil Production Slashed by 543,000 Barrels for 2016

As the Saudis commit financial jihad on U.S. oil production, our government sits here idle, complaining about the perplexities of building pipelines and creating tax loopholes for a solar industry that doesn’t stand a chance to displace the fossil fuel hegemony, any time soon.

oil

About $99 billion in face value of high-yield energy bonds are trading at distressed prices, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Spencer Cutter. The BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Energy Index has given up almost all of its outperformance since 2001, with the yield reaching its highest level relative to the broader market in at least 10 years.

“You are going to see a pickup in bankruptcy filings, a pickup in distressed asset sales and a pickup in distressed debt exchanges,” said Jeff Jones, managing director at Blackhill Partners, a Dallas-based investment banking firm. “And $35 oil will clearly accelerate the distress.”

“Most companies have gone into shrinkage mode, saying their goal is to stay flat and make it through this market,” Raoul LeBlanc, an analyst with IHS Inc. in Houston, said. “The current price is unsustainable. Unfortunately, we have to sustain it for a while longer.”

Separately, Saudi Arabia, the great devil from the east, has over $630 billion in currency reserves. Although they’ve been running a deficit of $30-45 billion per annum, things are about to get colorful for them in 2016, with deficit estimates ranging from $100 to $200 billion, depending on the price of Brent.

Oil accounts for more than 90% of Saudi Arabia’s income.

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The Wall Street Journal’s War Against Elizabeth Holmes Intensifies

This is the funniest shit since Al Gore said he invented the internets.

Elizabeth Holmes, the prodigal child who “invented” a method to test blood using just a pin prick of substance, has come under intense fire these last few months. The gist of the WSJ war against Holmes is that she is full of shit, the actual scientist behind the leading Theranos tech committed suicide, and she’s not being honest with her investors.

In a hit piece out tonight, the WSJ had this to say.

Ever since she launched Theranos in 2003 when she was 19 years old and dropped out of Stanford University, Ms. Holmes has been driven by ambition that is big even by Silicon Valley standards. Instead of a smartphone app to hail a car or order food, she wants to revolutionize health care with a vast range of diagnostic tests run with a few drops of finger-pricked blood.

Now 31, Ms. Holmes has emphasized a variety of strategies—a hand-held device, tests for drugmakers, drugstore clinics—while trying to turn her dream into a business. She often has collided with technological problems, according to interviews with more than 20 former Theranos employees, company emails and complaints filed with federal regulators.

For now, though, Theranos has stopped collecting tiny samples of blood from patients’ fingers for all but one of its tests while it waits for the Food and Drug Administration to review the company’s applications for wider use of the small proprietary vials called “nanotainers.” As a result, Theranos is using traditional lab machines for most of its tests.

By the end of 2004, Ms. Holmes had raised at least $6.9 million, valuing Theranos at about $30 million, according to corporate filings.

The first $1 million came from Tim Draper, a founder of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, through two of his funds. Ms. Holmes was a childhood friend of his daughter and came to him “with extraordinary energy and brilliance,” he says.

The money enabled Ms. Holmes to hire scientists and engineers. She believed the fastest route to getting revenue was by offering Theranos’s blood tests to drug companies for use in clinical trials, former Theranos employees say.

In April 2005, Ms. Holmes said on the public-radio program “BioTech Nation” that she had created a hand-held device that would help drug companies tell in real time how well their drugs worked on patients using “a little tiny needle that pulls a little tiny drop of blood” from an arm or the hand.

Ms. Holmes called it the RDX Metabolic Profiler and said it was “going into the production phase,” according to a recording of the interview. “We hope to release it, actually, to a pharmaceutical partner around mid to late this year.”

In 2010, another fundraising round boosted Theranos’s valuation above $1 billion. By then, the device was code-named Edison, after the famous inventor.

Safeway Inc. and Walgreens agreed to offer Theranos tests in stores. Mr. Nugent says he was surprised by the September 2013 announcement to “bring access to” Theranos’s “lab testing service through Walgreens pharmacies nationwide” because he still considered the Edison an experimental device.

He recalls seeing the machines labeled “for investigational use only.” Their accuracy “was not to the level you’d want.”

Ms. Buchanan responds: “We are 100% confident of the accuracy of our tests when we rolled them out.” She says Mr. Nugent seems to be confusing devices designed “for a non-clinical purpose…with those that are ultimately used in the clinical lab.”

In November 2013, Theranos’s lab in California got an order from a patient at a Walgreens for a blood test handled by the Edison, according to a former Theranos lab worker assigned to run the test.

Before doing the test, the employee put the device through three trial runs with a quality-control sample containing a known amount of the substance the test was supposed to measure.

When the Theranos employee alerted superiors, someone from research and development came to the lab and deleted quality-control data to make the Edison’s test runs look better, the former lab employee alleged in the complaint to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, or CMS.

The R&D employee then tested the patient’s blood on the Edison and sent the results to the patient, according to a copy of the complaint. An agency spokeswoman declines to comment. CMS auditors inspected Theranos last month as part of a regularly scheduled audit the company says is continuing.

Ms. Buchanan says Theranos doesn’t believe the incident happened. “If there ever were a circumstance like that, we would do a quality-control check on that device and not give out a patient result,” she says.

Last year, investors pumped another $633 million into Theranos, increasing its valuation to about $9 billion and Ms. Holmes’s majority stake to more than half that.

In April 2014, she got a long email from another employee. The employee alleged that Theranos had cherry-picked data when comparing Edison machines to traditional lab machines to make the Edison look more accurate, according to a copy of the email.

For one test, the device’s accuracy rate increased sharply after some information was deleted and manipulated, the employee wrote. Edison machines also allegedly failed daily quality-control checks often.

“I am sorry if this email sounds attacking in any way, I do not intend it to be,” the employee told Ms. Holmes. “I just feel a responsibility to you to tell you what I see so we can work towards solutions.”

Ms. Holmes forwarded the email to Mr. Balwani. He replied to the employee, who no longer works at Theranos, denied all the claims and questioned the employee’s understanding of statistics and lab science.

Quality-control failures were due to the “newness of some of our processes, which we are improving every day,” Mr. Balwani wrote.

He added: “This is product development, this is how startups are built.” The reply ended with an edict that the “only email on this topic I want to see from you going forward is an apology that I’ll pass on to other people.”

Ms. Buchanan says the employee was too inexperienced to “make these types of comments” and “struggled” to grasp Theranos’s scientific processes. The company has disclosed its test methods to regulators, she adds.

theranos

Theranos’ valuation, as of last raise, rivals that of Quest Diagnostics, who does $7.5 bill in revenues with profits of over $600 mill per annum.

As for Theranos’ valuation: fucking unicorn.

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Conflicting Cross-Currents, Heading Into Year End

When it comes to the stock market, I am inherently bullish. Over a long enough time line, the stock market goes up (no zerohedge). However, these letters affixed to numbers have their own little idiosyncrasies in the short term, ebbing and flowing with the emotions of the time. For me, the trade for 2016 is a very simple one: fade rallies, position longer term accounts into counter cyclical names. For growth, focus on companies generating high gross margin free cash flow.

I’ll get into the details of my plan this week, when I unveil my predictions for 2016.

The one thing that I can’t seem to shake is the level of underperformance from our preeminent hedge fund industry, with grotesque performance data out of ValueAct, Greenlight and Pershing Square. I know there will be a handful of you that will smugly dismiss those three funds because of their eccentric leaders. Nevertheless, they’ve demonstrated a rich history of outperformance for many years, just like Le Fly.

Why, if I were you and I saw Le Fly down big for the year, I’d be awfully reticent about fading him the following year. The laws of averages do not permit extended lengths of underperformance for people like me. Therefore, the same rules should apply to others, who’ve demonstrated a certain know-how in this market, uncommon to most.

I guess what I’m saying is, I am bearish, but open to the idea that somehow, someway, stocks will grind higher.

Everything hinges on oil.

Without the support of higher commodity prices, there is zero chance for a rally. The way I’m positioned now, I’m expecting a rip your face to the skeleton bones rally in commodities, just like last year, perhaps lasting until March. I am betwixt between an overly conservative longer term time horizon and a short term bullishness, not seen since January of last year. Couple that with the fact that I am in the midst of a transitional phase in my investment management career, I am wholly consumed with reshuffling the decks this final week of trade.

Heading into the final week, my top holdings, in random order, are JAZZ (don’t sleep on me), PAH, FCX, SHAK, COST, VRX, PANW, GILD and APPL.

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A COMMODITY DEBT ARMAGEDDON LOOMS

Two thousand and sixteen will not be a year of reckoning for basic resource stocks because there isn’t a lot of debt maturing over the next 12 months. However, as we make our way into 2016, people will start to look out towards the future and make judgement calls as to whether or not a company will be able to restructure the debt to stretch out looming maturities.

Here are some choice names and the amount of debt maturing within the next 3 years.

FCX: $4.28 bill
CHK: $5.66 bill
MT: $3.35 bill
BTU: $1.68 bill
WLL: $1.45 bill
CLF: $311 mill
AKS: $1.26 bill
VALE: $798 mill
ENB: $775 mill
APC: $4.65 bill
ABX: $1.98 bill
WFT: $2.44 bill
MUR: $550 mill

The greater concern is cash flow, of course. This is a mere snapshot of what beckons in the not-so-distant future for companies who rely upon commodities, which have been ravaged over the past year. For many of them, both credit and equity markets are closed. As losses mount, it will be exceedingly difficult for them to sustain payroll expenses.

Over the past year, free cash flow in the basic resource space checked in at a cool NEGATIVE $120 billion. Since oil has never been lower, I suspect losses will only accelerate to the downside.

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Here are the Winners of 2015

Control yourselves, lads. The final week of trade is upon us. As we regale ourselves in the splendor that was 2015, celebrating over gigantic ice buckets filled with uncorked bottles of champagne and exotic foods from the far reaches of the world, I wanted to do a quick review of this year’s best performing stocks.

The biggest winner was NFLX, up 140% for the year. Americans have become a slothful type of creature, always lounging about the living room in search for entertainment. In the old days, I had 7 channels on my television (2,4,5,7,9,11 and 13). Nowadays, kids have a thousand; but it isn’t enough. They need video on demand, which is where NFLX fits in for a very affordable $7.99 per mo. Granted, NFLX is entirely useless if you want to find new movies; but they have been producing some solid programming, like House of Cards, Marco Polo and Bloodline, which is driving subscription numbers.

CTRP was up 114% last year, after striking a deal with PCLN. To be honest, these Chinese companies baffle me. They’re all really cheap on paper, until, of course, it’s revealed that they’ve been scamming the whole time, via accounting irregularities.

AMZN was up 113%, serving as a deflationary force in retail, taking a wrecking ball to brick and mortar. I use Amazon all the time. I’m a prime member, which also gets me a NFLX quality movie streaming service for free. Over the years, Amazon has really stepped up their branded programming, with quality shows like Mozart in the Jungle, Hand of God and Man in the High Castle.

ATVI was up 95%, as kids rot their brains playing Call of Duty until their parents take a sledge hammer to their video game console.

NTES and QUNR were up 88%. More chinese trickery.

AYI was up 71%. This plays along with the gains in HD and LOW, as Americans upgrade their lighting system to LED. Although CREE has been unable to capitalize on the LED trend, AYI has been crushing it, on residential, commercial and industrial applications. This is a really interesting name.

NVDA was up 68%, one of the few semis to crush 2015. They make chips that enhance video game and editing applications for computers. Nerds love their stuff.

OA produces bullets for the military. It enjoyed a 66% surge in 2015. I wonder why?

Other winners of note include: MANH (+70%), CYT (+64%), EDU (+63%), TYL (+63%), GPN (+62%), ZNH (+61%), VLRS (+97%), SBRCY (+57%), CVC (+57%), HRL (+57%), EXR (+55%), MSCI (+54%), NTT (+54%), VRSN (+54%), YOKU (+52%), TSS (+51%), FSLR (+50%), RAI (+49%), VLO (+49%), EXPE (+49%), INCY (+49%), SBUX (+48%), ALTR (+48%), IBKR (+48%), VMC (+47%), HCC (+47%), DXCM (+47%), TMUS (+47%), AVGO (+47%), JBLU (+47%), HLF (+46%), STZ (+46%), EA (+46%), HOLX (+46%), PANW (+45%), ULTA (+44%).

 

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Saturday Cinema with Le Fly: Young Frankenstein

I remember back in the 80’s Gene Wilder was the man. He’d team up with Richrd Pryor in a bunch of hysterical movies, usually playing the air headed side kick.

In this classic, he is Dr. Frankenstein, a long lost relative of the Dr. Frankenstein, who left the young American Dr his castle and everything that comes with it, including Igor.

I’ve seen this movie again, for the first time in maybe 20-25 years, and it was absolutely  hilarious.

 

 

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2015’s Holiday Shopping Season Share Price Winners

There’s a lot of noise being circulated by financial journalists who don’t know the first or last thing about investing. They spit out AMZN numbers and revel in their genius for informing the public that online sales were robust and brick and mortar sucked.

But real people know all of that is a bunch of horseshit, when it comes to gauging the balance in our brokerage accounts.

AMZN was flat for the past month, meaning you made ZERO profits playing the great migration over to online sales. But you know who banked coin?

Maternity, a hideously ugly female bag maker, online furniture retailer, plastic containers, soda pop, online coupons, guns, and a bunch of brick and mortar zombie stocks.

Here are the share price winners for this year’s retail holiday extravaganza.

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Time to Drink, Eat, Look at Phone, Open Gifts Under Plastic Tree: Merry Xmas

It’s that time of year again, America. Go visit your family and stare into the abyss of your cellular mobile telephone device, as the food gets passed around, the alcoholic beverages flow and the many thousands of dollars you’ve spent on gifts goes entirely unappreciated. The pagan holiday of Xmas is one of my favorite forms of expressing hedonism. After all, I am a well mannered christian, one totally deserving of gifts, drink and beverage.

Like always, I will head towards the borough of Brooklyn this evening, to partake in the many traditions that I’ve grown to deserve. I believe lobster tails and shrimp are on the menu, staples in any Italian feast. Also, I will be making my famous mulled wine, something that I picked up a few years ago. I make it so strong it decimates any man or woman in its path.

We’re heading down the home stretch of 2015 now. I’d like to thank all of you, from the bleachers section of the reader class of persons, for visiting iBankCoin on a daily basis, helping to spread our brand of financial propaganda to the far reaches of the globe.

Did you know iBC is read in 66 countries, around this wonderful globe? Indeud.

At any rate, I had a good year and I hope most of you did too. Next week, I will be unveiling my 2016 picks and will be finalizing my GARP portfolio for Exodus, which is a semi-annual managed portfolio of growth stocks.

Okay lads, time to turn up the Frank Sinatra christmas melodies, watch a little It’s a Wonderful Life in the background, and stuff your faces with all sorts of delicacies. Get the kids tucked in early, so that Santa Claus can break into your house, via unguarded chimney, to 3x inverse burglar your house.

Merry Christmas,

Fly

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Goldman: There Isn’t Any Deflation

Ex out oil, gas, gold, copper, nickel, aluminum, tech gadgets, shit sold on Amazon, financial services, retail sales, dry bulk shipping, etc.: THERE ISN’T ANY DEFLATION. Ergo, the Fed can hike to its moronic heart’s delight, said the sages at Goldman Sachs.

“There is little evidence of a broader global deflationary force at work that extends beyond the impact of commodity-price declines and dollar appreciation,” David Mericle and Daan Struyven told clients in a report on Wednesday.

Such conclusions leave Goldman Sachs predicting a moderate acceleration in inflation in 2016 as the economy reaches full capacity.

Ex all of that shit out.

Perhaps they’re not looking at the CRB index, at record lows.
CRB

If the CRB index is too biased for you, maybe have a looksy at the old inflation rate.
inflation

If that was a pulse rate, the doctor would be taking the defibrillators out and administering some nitroglycerine to the patient.

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