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Yearly Archives: 2015

Santa Brought Some Natural Gas For Xmas

It’s too late for most natural gas stocks. One could only hope for higher utility bills at this point in the post apocalyptic cycle of natural gas. But, don’t look now, natty is on one hell of a 2 week run.

 

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Like I said in the beginning, for stocks it’s too late. They’re already circling the toilet bowl. But you can still play this, via some handy dandy (extra Blue’s clues) 3x leveraged to the hilt ETFs!

Take UGAZ, as a case in point.

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Imagine you were Broadway Bill ‘Montauk’ Ackman, down in the gutters, around 20% for the year. You scratched your silver head, thinking of a way to escape a losers fate.

“I know what to do. I’ll sell everything and buy UGAZ!”

Had B. Albert Ackman done that, sold everything and placed a mere $17 billion into UGAZ, he’d be up 60% for the year right now, celebrating by bungi jumping off skyscrapers and telling junior employees that they’re worthless piece of shits.

UGAZ is up a mere 95% over the past two weeks. Santa has been generous to the natty lovers out there this holiday season of record warmth.

FML.

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STOCKS LIFT OFF!

Ah, this is the market we’ve grown to truly hate, the sort that tosses mixed messages, small nuances and idiosyncrasies to keep you off kilter. One second you’re planning for end of times in a nuclear bomb shelter, the next you’re popping champagne corks, UNSOLICITED, into the faces of your wives.

Everything about this market is wrong, which is why Le Fly is making wholesale changes, not only to his portfolio, but the way he invests.

TIME HAS COME FOR WANTON CHANGE AND REVOLUTION.

Commodities is where it’s at, chump. Copper and oil are higher by 3%. The Wolf Kings in China are manipulating to their black heart’s maximum desire. And, my stocks are giving me an end of year boost. I have little to complain about, other than the fact that this market drives me fucking nuts.

One day, I will become insane, tossing manhole covers at the people passing by. Until then, I remain faithfully yours, The Blogger Wolf King, writing away, into the night, telling tales both tall and small, for all of the little people below.

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WOLF KING of CHINA: LOOK FOR STOCKS WITH MANIPULATORS

If you want to suck on some soup, you invest the old fashioned way. However, in China, if you want to eat meat, you learn to manipulate stocks.

PREASE PAY ME ONE THOUSAND DORRARS FOR THIS RESSON.

“We need to dance with the wolves,” says Liu, the chief executive officer at Qingdao Langwang Investment Consulting Co., a producer of online video seminars for stock investors in China’s eastern Shandong province.

For a one-time payment of 6,800 yuan ($1,050), Liu’s firm provides a crash course on stock manipulators in China: how to anticipate their targets, how to spot their trades and — most importantly — how to profit by following in their tracks. The three-month class is one of at least 100 across the country that promise insight into Zhuang Jia, a local term for market manipulators that portrays them as holding the upper hand.

“If you want to make a quick buck from the stock market, you’d better look for stocks with manipulators,” explains Chen Yifeng, a 37-year-old accountant at a state-owned company in Shanghai who has about 100,000 yuan of his personal portfolio invested in local shares. “You just need to pull out faster than them.”

Of course, not all individual investors in China are chasing after manipulated stocks. Zhang Kai, a 27-year-old consultant at a financial firm in Beijing, sold his personal equity holdings in June in part because he thinks amateur traders will struggle to make much money in shares where Zhuang Jia are active.

“It’s possible for individual investors to enjoy some soup if they follow the Zhuang Jia, but they can never eat the meat in the end,” he said.

 

Changing investor attitudes will be difficult. While the CSRC says its public announcements on manipulation fines and investigations help educate investors on the dangers of Zhuang Jia, a search on online bookstore Dangdang.com returns more than 200 titles on how to find, follow and ride the coattails of stock-market manipulators.

 

At Langwang, the investment seminar firm whose name translates to “wolf king,” students learn to track rapid price and volume changes that deviate from the broader stock market. Those are tell-tale signs of manipulation, according to Liu, the firm’s CEO. He says the best way to piggy-back on the gains is by building a “trial” position with a stop-loss order designed to limit damage if the stock reverses. If it rallies at least 5 percent, Liu suggests adding to the position.

 

“Stocks backed by major players and manipulators tend to perform much stronger,” Liu said. “The regulatory crackdown will certainly have some impact, but market manipulation will continue. It’s inevitable.”

That’s some bullshit right there. For those of you looking for EM exposure, I strongly advise you to steer clear of these “wolf kings” and buy anything else instead. The Chinese government is trying to crack down on these lunatics, en masse, which is part of the reason why their economy is in the shitter. Look at what anti-corruption measures have done to Macau. It’s a delicate game to be played and I am almost certain the Chinese aren’t ready to play it with elegance.

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Faber: We’re Already in Recession

The gloom and doom man from the gutters of the transsexual districts in Thailand is throwing mad shade at Fed chief, grandmother Yellen, suggesting we’re already in recession, equity prices are fucking doomed, and the world as we know it is about to end.

“Ten-year U.S. Treasuries are quite attractive because of my outlook for a weakening economy,” Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, said in an interview with Bloomberg on Monday. “I believe that we’re already entering a recession in the United States” and U.S. stocks will fall in 2016, he said.

Bear in mind, Marc Faber has been saying this ever since the day he started to speak Dutch, or whatever the fuck his native tongue is.

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Icahn Tops Bridgestone’s Offer For Pep Boys

Carl isn’t fucking around. I’m sure the lads over at PBY are throwing tires around the office, at the specter of Carl taking control of the company. They’d much rather prefer to wed with the grease monkies at Bridgestone.

Carl just upped the ante, offering $18.50 for PBY, $1.50 more than Bridgestone’s all cash offer.

On December 28, 2015, Icahn Enterprises delivered to the Issuer a proposal to acquire all of the outstanding Shares for $18.50 per Share in cash in a negotiated transaction that would not be subject to any due diligence, financing or antitrust conditions. In the Proposal, Icahn Enterprises stated that, as one of the Issuer’s largest shareholders, Icahn Enterprises believes it is contrary to the best interests of all of the Issuer’s shareholders for the Issuer to agree to any increase of the termination fee payable to Bridgestone Retail Operations, LLC (“Bridgestone”) pursuant to the Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of October 26, 2015, by and among the Issuer, Bridgestone and TAJ Acquisition Co. (as amended through December 24, 2015, the “Bridgestone Agreement”), because it would prevent a truly robust auction. Icahn Enterprises also indicated in the Proposal that it could be willing to bid in excess of $18.50 per Share for the Issuer. However, Icahn Enterprises also stated in the Proposal that it does not intend to bid any higher than $18.50 per Share if the Issuer agrees to any increase of Bridgestone’s termination fee.”

Carl said he would top any offer Bridgestone would make. I guess the muffler faces at PBY should’ve taken him seriously.

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Shares of Valeant Plunge After CEO Went Outside Without a Sweater

This is the looniest shit I’ve ever seen. The stock price was doing just fine, until the CEO decided it was a good idea to walk the dog without a hat and sweater. As a result, he caught pneumonia and is now idled in a hospital receiving bronchial treatment.

Valeant and Pearson have come under pressure for steep price increases on some of its drugs and for close ties to a specialty pharmacy that used aggressive methods to overcome insurer barriers to reimbursing its medicines.

Pearson was hospitalized with the lung condition on Friday. A company spokeswoman declined on Monday to say whether he had experienced any complications or when he might return, adding it was honoring a family request for privacy.

“It is an inopportune time for their leader to take sick leave after the company has faced credibility issues in recent months,” said Morningstar analyst Damien Conover. “If the company was on solid footing, it wouldn’t be as much of an issue.”

Valeant said its board has created an “office of the Chief Executive Officer,” which will include General Counsel Robert Chai-Onn, Group Chairman Ari Kellen, and Chief Financial Officer Robert Rosiello.

“It is a little unusual to have that sort of operating structure, a panel” to fill in for an absent drug company CEO, Conover said.

Broadway Bill Ackman must be besides himself with disdain. After enduring a year from hell, long VRX into one short seller report after the next, falling victim to blogspot assault, he has to deal with this shit–the untimely near demise of its CEO. Out of all the things Broadway Bill didn’t want for the pagan holidays, I am sure this was at the top of his DO NOT REQUEST list from Santa.

I’ll hold my shares, hoping the CEO had little to do with the accounting creativity at VRX. God willing, the true author of the artistic accounting talents lies with some back office clerk, who toils away at the balance sheet to ensure the company pleases its fans on Wall Street.

Shares of VRX were off more than 10% today.

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In 2015, U.S. Companies Led the World…in Defaults

Americans go big every time. We don’t fuck around with small defaults or minor recessions. We exacerbate a situation until it renders the entire globe at risk, creating great recessions, not just ordinary ones. When our banks blow up, everyone loses, especially old people in wheeled chairs.

Nowadays, our oil and gas experiments are blowing up in real time, once again leading the globe in failure.

How will this all end?

After the U.S., companies from emerging markets were the second-largest defaulters, accounting for 23 percent of the pool, which is a smaller share than last year, according to S&P data.

Plummeting oil prices and speculation about how the Federal Reserve’s plan to tighten monetary policy would affect corporate borrowing costs has made companies more vulnerable, Vazza wrote.

“The current crop of U.S. speculative-grade issuers appears fragile, and particularly susceptible to any sudden, or unanticipated shock,” she wrote.

It will most assuredly end like our 4th of July fireworks finales, with flair and extreme showmanship.

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Wretched Tape

Seventy two percent of stocks are lower today, with gains found almost exclusively in utilities. Treasuries are moving higher again, as investors bet on the yield curve inverting.

Commodity related stocks are hammered into atoms, plunging 5-10% across the board.

Is this how we are to end 2015? Well good riddance. I’ve been offering second and third chances to this market, giving the benefit of the doubt, for two years now, only to be abused and disappointed in the end. Right now, I am getting poleaxed in my FCX and SN positions, not to mention the utter stupidity that is VRX–dropping because its CEO caught the cold.

Today typifies 2015 perfectly. It embodies everything that’s wrong with the tape, from false starts to the wrong stocks going higher.

If you’re heading into 2016 with a very bullish opinion of this market, you should have your head examined.

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Dust to Dust: Chimerix Hammered Beyond Belief

Everything goes back from whence is came. Shares of CMRX are trolling the graveyard today after announcing that trials for their main drug wasn’t going too well.

Chimerix Inc said its oral antiviral drug did not significantly reduce a certain kind of infection in stem cell transplant patients in a late-stage study, sending its shares down 72 percent in premarket trading.

Patients taking the drug, brincidofovir, did not experience significant reduction in cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection through week 24 after transplant.

CMV is a member of the herpes virus family and remains a significant cause of viral infections in transplant recipients.

The company said its lead drug failed to achieve the main goal due to cases of graft-versus-host-disease (GVHD), a complication that occurs when transplanted donor cells attack the recipient’s body.

Chimerix said pending the availability of complete data from late-stage trial of the drug, it has paused further enrollment of kidney transplant patients.

Actually, the drug didn’t seem to work at all. Obviously, the stock wasn’t reflecting the inherent risk that shareholders were taking on, gambling on a drug in clinical trials. I’ve always marveled at the biotech industry as being equal to juggling pinless handgrenades, whose contents were sure to blow both of your limbs off at any time.
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Unfortunately, for stake holders in CMRX, that day is reckoning is today.

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Fred Wilson’s Public Holdings Lost Over $19 Billion in Market Cap This Year

If by good you mean profitable beyond belief for the managers of the venture capital fund, then Union Square is the epitome of what a venture firm should endeavor to emulate. However, if, by chance, you’re on the other side of the ledger, a mere plebeian public investor looking to make enough money to buy a beach’d house, you were royally fucked following Fred and his band of arch-capitalists during 2015.

Before you pass judgement on Fred, just know that he “turned a few million dollars into $1.5 billion” long Twitter, from the beginning. It’s hard to fault someone for having the foresight to invest in an early concept like that, then criticize him when management drops the ball in the public markets. Nevertheless, the facts are the fact. There are 4 publicly traded companies on the USV books, as far as I know.

Here they are with their year to date returns.

TWTR: -36%
LC: -54%
ZNGA +1.8%
ETSY -70%

He made a mint selling ZNGA above $12, and also fleeced Yahoo several times, selling them Tumblr and Flurry to them at absurd prices. His investors couldn’t ask for a better steward for their investable dollars.

Everyone else: beware.
Shameless

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