Don’t Be a Bottom Feeder

Take it from me, a virile man with nearly two decades of industry experience: QUIT BUYING PIECE OF SHIT STOCKS AND PIECE OF SHIT INDUSTRIES.

Let me explain.

There are times when buying the blood makes sense, especially when there are bad market conditions. Then there are times when buying bad stocks and bad sectors is simply a waste of time, just like my experience in VALE.

Believe it or not, I am not referring to oil, since oil has been trending higher for a month now. I am talking about trying to pick off lows in commodities, like gold, silver and natural gas. These are broken commodities and aren’t in the matrix of where money flow is going. You’ll either frustrate yourselves in dead trades or get lucky. One way or another, if you’re following any disciplines at all, you’d be wise to avoid playing these ridiculous commodities.

We are in a world filled with innovation, free cash flow coming out of ears, and you’re wasting time/money trying to catch knives in ancient sectors?

What stocks are good now?

For crying out loud take a look at 20 out of 35 of my long term holdings ripping higher today.

I sold out of OXY for a $3 gain, despite oil firming up today. As you readily know by now, I started a position in JBLU, bulking up on airliners, which also contains an AAL position. My largest oil positions are SLCA and PACD, both of which I intend to hold for high prices. I am not beholden to oil and see no reason to play asshole parlor games at a time when other sectors offer steady returns without having to enter Dante’s seventh ring of hell.

For example, I started a position in MD today. There is a stock that simply glides higher. It doesn’t hurry itself or run about the sewer pipe ever other day. It merely comports itself the way a gentleman stock should, with grace and certainty.

On the other hand, my hamburger stock, HABT, which has been nothing less than a vulgar excuse for speculation since its IPO, is beginning to exhibit signs of life. This is likely due to the fact that several peers have reported positive results and people are beginning to understand how badly MCD sucks.

Thusly, I am up 0.5% for the day, hoping to extend my god given rights to MOAR by the end of the day.

I sold VALE for a 3% loss and started a new position in JBLU.

Seeing the price of crude down this morning reminds me to not overweight oil stocks. It’s important to have some exposure, due to the potential upside and beta that oil stocks represent down here. However, these are broken names, divorced from the ceremony of man, 100% fucked.

Remember that there are other sectors out there. You can delve into services, industrials, tech, utilities, consumer discretionary and staples. Don’t be a jackass; own a cross section of the economy and trade around it.

Once you come to the realization that taking your entire net worth and swing trading it is completely idiotic, you will build a portfolio and trade around it with swing trade ideas–like me. You cannot persist in this business by swinging around your account from 0% to 100% cash inside of a few trading days and expect to keep your sanity.

Futures are flat this morning. I still love airlines most, following by hamburger stocks. I hope you are paying attention to the erection commercials on CNBC and consider popping some of those bad boys through today’s trading session.

Last year was my sole down year in over a decade. This emboldened my enemies to infinity and beyond (Toy Story). During 2015, I intend to reassert my dominance over the financial blogosphere and wreak havoc upon those of you attempting to compete with iBankCoin. Quit now and save yourselves the aimless palaver of what will end up being ‘fruitless negotiations’ and head back to whence you came–from nothing.

Most of you out there are ordinary loungers, or black hearted criminals, wholly intent on hoodwinking persons about the digital alleyways to offer reverence to your sound financial planning. You are nothing more than a strumpet, a coxcomb, galavanting in a minefield built for men. It won’t take long to rip apart your legs and arms, leaving you with nothing more than a flabby and neglected torso to wait out your days until you die by moronic design.

“The Fly” wishes to spare you of this indignity and will gladly purchase your clown-trap web domain for exactly zero dollars.

You’ll never amount to anything much in this business of risk because you don’t take any. Even the dumbest creatures on the internet understand that to idle oneself at a time of rapid expansion and opportunity equates to dousing oneself with a bottle of petrol and tossing oneself into a lit fireplace.

“The Fly” prides himself of championing the plights of the disenfranchised, bedraggled microbe, and then cordially directing them to annihilate themselves for lack of proper comportment.

Balls aside, if you’re going to compete with me, do so like a gentleman and quit behaving like a scorned woman, desperate and pathetic bitch, absent of the very basic standards that enabled this great nation to rise up from the ashes of Earl Grey tea and asshole/vagabond royal subservience. In other words, go get your balls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrhMUXtnUeo

The last time the NASDAQ hit 5,000 was March of 2000, a time of pure hedonism, stupidity and wonder. I was a wee lad, brand new in the business, making money hand over fist. I knew it all and could not be told what to do, for I had cracked the timeless code of the markets and knew how to print money on a daily basis.

I’d go to work, a 20 something punk from Brooklyn, and leverage out my accounts, spend a few hours on the Bloomberg terminal and then print money. None of my family or friends knew how much money I was making; for if I told them, they’d likely attempt to mug me.

It was the best of times until actual centaurs appeared on the NYSE and kicked in the faces of everyone who was buying dot coms, effectively ending the rally, plunging Wall St and the economy into the pits of hell. It took the tragic events of 9/11 to drag us out of the morass we were in, the very worst market in the world.

Well, here we are, 15 years later, encroaching on NASDAQ 5,000 again. This time around we are a little bit smarter, uglier, and experienced. Unlike in 2000, this market isn’t built on fantasy. Corporations are banking immense coin and innovation is just as profound, if not more, than in 2000.

If we were to top out again at 5,000, that would be pure comedy. “The Fly” doesn’t believe in comedy; ergo, we will continue to break necks until the market Gods decide we’ve had enough.

Hugh Hendry, take it away!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7pVjl4Rrtc

I’m up almost 1% for the day, pushing 10% for the year. The market has been on a crazy man run to the upside, hobo-style. Part of me wants to sell to lock in gains, thinking we’re gonna give it back at some point in this god forsaken year. After all, YNDX was up $1.50 earlier today and now is barely up for the day.

But another part of me wants to press the envelope, hoping to extend gains to the point of madness.

Oil trades like a small cap nasdaq stock and I am grateful that my largest oil position is higher today. I’d like to tell you to heed caution and to know that nothing lasts forever. I’d like to say we are due for a pullback and that the cautious path is the appropriate one. However, I can only say such things if I were drunk, or worse– a fucking moron.

Ladies and gentlemen,

This market is a celebration of life, the human race, and all that goes with it. We’ve struggled and toiled through the centuries to get to this point, a singularity between man and machine. Now that we are here you want to trade gold stocks?

Fucking idiot.

Top pick: AAL

First we give news of peace in the Ukraine. Now we show you the money, with BIG earnings. Next we sue American shit company Google and make them pay us the money. We are Yandex and we give search engine for the internet. Here, look at earnings and see for yourself.

Yandex N.V. reports Q4 (Dec) results, revs in-line; sees Q1 rev +15%  (16.65)

Reports Q4 (Dec) adj. net income per diluted share of ~RUB 12.28 per share, may not be comparable to the Capital IQ Consensus of RUB 12.85; revenues rose 21.4% year/year to RUB 14.67 bln vs the RUB 14.67 bln consensus.

• The current outlook is limited to quarterly guidance because of high level of uncertainty in the current macroeconomic situation.
• “Currently we expect revenue to grow ~15% in Q1 2015.”
• “Although we face challenging economic headwinds, including substantial currency fluctuations, we are managing Yandex for the long term. We will continue to improve monetization, pursue cost efficiencies in our core business and manage our forex exposure, while investing into critical growth areas such as mobile and advertising technologies.”

Not much is on sale, unless you’re delving into the oil and gas space, which is soon to be impaired. But there are some names that have traded off over the past 6 months, all having massive free cash flow in excess of $500 million per annum. I am certain at least one of these names will recover and outperform before the year is through.

WYNN
CAT
SNDK
KOF
RL
BBD
PPC

Pick one.

My initial purchase of SLCA was at around $42. I rode it all the way up to new highs, into the $70’s, only to see it collapse into the dirt and rocks, making a mockery of my patience. It was part of a broader asset allocation model and wasn’t overweight, so there wasn’t a sense of urgency with the name, as it fell. However, before long, that small position started to weigh on my performance. As the shares slid to the low $20’s I began to ponder the meaning of life.

I made a decision to begin a campaign to average in on the shares, bringing the cost basis down to reasonable levels.

I bought some at $25, $26, $27, $28 and $29. I bought the stock about 8 times, all recorded in real time in The PPT. I’ve reduced my cost basis down to the mid- $30’s, a reasonable level in the big scheme of things. During this period of accumulation, I’ve exhibited extreme diligence and patience, something to be expected from a man in my position and caliber. If I could do it all again, however, I’d sell this fucker in the $70’s. Hindsight is always 20/20.

Now I could bulk up on the position here and try to make it profitable on a potential push higher. However, given the recent run in oil, I think the prudent move is to wait for lower prices. If this trades up to $40, I will reduce my position. If it trades back down into the mid-20’s, I will add to it.

It’s never easy wading through shit, bearing witness to great trades turning into losers. But had I given up and sold out in the $20’s, when most did, I wouldn’t be in a position to turn this dog into profit, as I am now.

The market was up today because this is a bulled up market. Join the party or get left behind.