No Crying Wolf: Exodus is Coming

I cannot stress to you enough how invaluable the second iteration of The PPT is to me, having the luxury of working with it for more than two months now. We’re in the process of debugging it, making sure it’s ready for prime time. I can confidently say there will not be a single member of our secret society who will be disappointed by the results, a work in progress for nearly half a decade.

Why the delay?

We built it, scrapped it. We built it again, scrapped it again. One must not rush art. We aren’t venture capital financed, so there was never a sense of urgency that superseded the every day trials and tribulations of maintaining and servicing the world’s best finance site.

As we put the finishing touches on Exodus, I will be uploading some pics and try to answer any questions that you might have about the software. It truly is the crown jewel of my extensive resume of online accomplishments. Indeud.

This is the new front page or dashboard. This is what you see when you login.

RIP Don Keough

You thought I was defeated last night, after seeing SLCA down heavy on an earnings miss. What you didn’t count on is “The Fly” calling upon ancient spirits to fuck you up. Those same spirits will ultimately lead to your end in NDRM, HABT, WFT and others.

Lads, don’t bet against me. You’re only hurting yourselves, no different from riding on a bicycle without handle bars.

The fuck out of here.

Pressing the envelope here, I bought NDRM on this downside reversal. Near term target is $16.

What did I say? Oil is on the move higher now. One more day of stability/strength and the entire fucking patch is going to scream higher. At that time, I will likely sell off my newly minted WFT position, retire off the coast of Monaco and live like ‘big man’ for the duration.

You keep guessing, trying to trade in and out of the market like a fucking Jack in the Box. Truly pathetic.

Biotech is on the move higher and it looks like PCYC caught a bid. One name I forgot to add to my biotech buyout list is SGEN, another Baker Bros holding. What do you know about Baker Bros?

Absolutely nothing.

There are two types of people in the market.

1. Guys like you, throwing dirt bombs at the screen–declaring yourself a fucking guru.

2. Guys like me, who generally bowl on people like you–due to a vast reservoir of talent and experience, all stemming from a genetical make up of superior design.

Oil catching a bid here means you go long Russian stocks too. Both YNDX and QIWI are holdings of mine, personal favorites. Plus, the Ruble has been gaining versus the dollar.

Over the past 5 years, the single best sector to invest in has been in biotech. Big pharma has been desperately seeking to grow through acquisition, using their cash hordes to buy publicly traded r&d centers. More than that, they’re buying free cash flow, executing deals that are accretive to earnings. The latest takeout, SLXP, is just one of many that have been executed in recent years.

So who’s next?

For that, I did a simple search, scouring for companies doing over $100 million in revenues, free cash flow positive, growing revenues by more than 15%. Here is the short list.

DEPO
ACOR
ANIK
CBM
EBS
ENTA
INSY
LCI
PDLI
TECH
SGNT
ACET
CRL

Within the larger pharma names, here are my favorites to get taken over next.

JAZZ
MDVN
PCYC
TARO
QGEN
UTHR

That’s it. There’s a lot of chaff out there, names without revenues and earnings, pure speculative dice rolls. But there are only a few, with market caps under $20 billion, that are still independently traded. My favorites are JAZZ and MDVN, who are cash cows trading at reasonable valuations.

Nothing can stop this.

You know how I feel. What you are witnessing isn’t a stock market rally, a short squeeze, or a technical move off the ass-end of a long consolidation.

This, ladies and gentlemen, is a celebration of mankind. You are fortunate to be alive at a time when barbarians roam the earth, beheading people for titling their heads sideways during prayer, then posting the video of the ordeal onto social media.

For every reason not to invest in stocks, I can counter with 100 for. These are the days of your lives, an era of grande profit and distinguished decadence. Celebrate this day, all of the days, amidst your harems. Ask your mistress to serve you some caviar along with the usual order of champagne this evening. There will be great profits to be had. All you need are the tools to mine said profits.

As luck would have it, the good folks at iBankCoin are about to undergo a new venture in the capital markets, by offering to you, the daily pleb, FREE boot camp courses, for both 12631 and After Hours with Option Addict members, during the month of April, led by some of the tabbed bloggers of this virile site. Those who are not members, there will be a nominal fee to gain entry, as time costs a great deal of money. Along that vein, this will last throughout the month of April.

Details will be forthcoming.

I was up 1% for the session, now +12% year to date.

Big moves happening in the solar sector today. I would not chase those fuckers after such a run higher. Although I liked the airlines, I’ve convinced myself that crude is going to bounce this week. As such, I eliminated my exposure to the airlines and added to my oil longs. The QIWI position is nothing more than a play off Russia. Given my bullish position in crude, I figure Russia will bounce with stronger oil prices. Plus anyway, QIWI is trading at a 50% discount to where it was trading last year, in terms of PE and P/S ratios.

Everyone expected Yellen to disappoint today. I think the speech went well and there is no fucking way the Fed tightens now, as the CRB index hits 1996 lows. I’ll say it again and to the point: THE FED IS NOT GOING TO HIKE INTEREST RATES, NOT NOW, NOT EVER, ESPECIALLY WHEN WE ARE FIGHTING DEFLATION.

What if they did hike rates?

We would deflate further and the stock market would fall. In what world is that a desirable outcome for the Federal government, who is reliant upon cap gains taxes and market appreciation to sustain underfunded pension funds? I hope you understand by now, for good or for worse, that governments around the world are in a pickle. This situation lends to their desire to see equity prices continue to rise, in order to avoid budget cuts and recession. They will continue to buoy markets for as long as they can, so you might as well get it out of your immature minds that stocks are heading lower.

While individual sectors might weaken and markets transition from one phase to the next, the over-arching story in our lifetimes will be one of a bullish design.

Trade accordingly.

Listen to me. I sold out from my airplane stocks, not because I hate them, but because I have fell in love with something else. It’s not the airlines fault that I am leaving them, but my own. As such, I booked gains on both AAL and JBLUE and made what appears to be a ‘lateral move’, gobbling up shares of WFT and Russian mafia firm QIWI.

That’s right, I’m back in the well, full Russian.

We’re just coasting along here, aren’t we? It’s sort of eery, being able to make money without drama. Then again, if I recall correctly, last year offered a similar circumstance, until all hell on earth broke loose in March. Part of me wants to move to the side here. My aggressive side wants to stay the course, press the envelope. We’re all gamblers here, at the end of the day.

Even hamburger stocks are behaving. Nothing is this easy.

Oil is stable; but oil stocks look weak. I think you buy them into today’s weakness and sell them towards the end of this week.

I’m not afraid of the Fed. Then again, maybe I should be, since Yellen is a god damned crazy old sea-hag.

TOL posted great numbers. PANW caught an upgrade. AAL caught a downgrade. The world turns and ISIS is still free to sever heads without any tangible ramifications. The armies of the middled east are without penis.

Moving on. I believe NDRM is going to moonshot soon. I don’t have any reason to believe it will sky-rocket, other than the indelible fact that “The Fly” wins all the time. There are always side-notes to my trades that I am unable to share with you, the strange people from the internets. At any rate, I have a busy day ahead of me. I’ll be sure to share my thoughts if anything changes in the market today.

Ciao

You know I’ve been reticent about drilling for oil in this environment. I’ve advocated to sell some oils and lock in gains. However, every once in awhile The PPT shows me something I wouldn’t normally see on my own. In this case, there aren’t any notable oversold signals yet, or momo screens to reference, but a chart.

That’s right, I am about to cite a chart.

Bear in mind, my charts are smart, intuitive, not idle and lazy like the ones you prefer to draw lines on.

Here it goes.

What is this nonsense that I present to you above? It is the ‘hybrid’ score of the entire oil/gas drilling and exploration industry, which is, essentially, a combination of technical and fundamental factors. On top of that, several other things comprise the hybrid score, such as intra-day currency, commodity and treasury moves. In other words, our sub-rosa is somewhat complicated and proprietary.

Over the past week, dozens of oil stocks are down double digits. This sector has pulled back to the point that it has become buyable, especially if you’re banking on a spring revival in oil–ahead of the driving season. Looking at the hybrid score, you see we are now at the low end of the trading range for the past 6 months.

Which stocks do we want to target?

We don’t want outliers. We want to buy names that have been participating in rallies, that are big cap. Enough with the small cap time-bombs, god damn it.

Here is my short list.

CLR
AR
HP
WLL

Oil/gas and equipment

BHI
WFT
SDRL
EXH
SLCA

Keep in kind, this might not bounce tomorrow and this industry might sell off some more. But it’s likely buyable down here. Establish a process by which you can add to some names, hopefully with the proceeds from some stocks that you took profits on last week.