Tomorrow the Nerds Seek Revenge

TWTR and the silicon valley crew got poleaxed today. The programmers over in the valley must feel uneasy after today, sort of like High School gym class all over again. The footballs are ricocheting off their heads, as Fred Wilson picks their pockets clean, kicking them into and about idle sewer pipes populated by hungry alligators.

These lads do not posses the survival skills to last long. Therefore, there must be a bounce, some sort of respite, coming for them soon. I predict tomorrow to be such a day, as it is written inside of the scriptures taken from the future, via my time machine.

My largest position CYBR got smoked today and everything is dark, gloomy and shitful. Hopefully tomorrow will be a better day, else I will need to accelerate the manner in which I raise cash and run for the hills.

Thank God I sold VDSI on Friday.

Drugs are doing just fine today. Stocks like GILD, JAZZ, CMRX, PTLA, OPHT, CEMP etc. We are going to cure cancer, the aids, even sleep.

Lads, bid these motherfuckers up until 50x sales, then take a short siesta under a lazy as shit tree. Eat some cheese and grapes, then wash it down with wine. After you’re done inebriating yourself, tell your boss to “fuck off”, then buy more drugs. You can sustain yourselves, extravagant lifestyles and the like, simply by relying upon the stewards, mind you, at the FDA to pass debilitating drugs onto on unsuspecting public.

As onerous as these drugs might be, the capital gains you will make will more than make up for the outlier events, sudden heart attacks, blindness or strokes caused by penis erection pills.

‘Tis is a bad day. I am not a happy man right now and should find other things to do with my time than fuck with you. But do some drugs, for God’s sake, and leave me alone.

Top pick: ONCE

This morning looked promising. Ever since then, we’ve been presented with the black flag. This is full blown fucktard trading action, pinless hand grenades leaving men strewn out across lawns bleeding out, limbless and without dick.

We are supposed to come to work and enjoy it. Stocks should trade higher and our clients should shower us with gifts of gratitude. Instead, we are wheeled into our offices inside of coffins and asked to rise from the dead to cold call to find new investors for our wares. Our banks are very busy, indeud, coming out with financing deals, all of which pay us handsome gratuities/concessions.

In other news, Fred Wilson is not a fan of Apple, but loves Twitter.

Is it because the stock is down? We all TWTR; therefore, someone will buy them…eventually?

Yeah everyone used AOL and look where that went before coming public again, then getting bought out for a sick premium.

This version of the dot com bubble sucks. None of us got to make money, I mean real money, on the hype. All of the fuck you money was made in private markets and we got the fucking leftovers, the joys of ZNGA-GRPN-YELP on the other side of the mountain.

The greedy little VCs kept these companies private, hyped their valuations to absurd levels, then got liquid on us.

TWTR is still trading 13x sales, a crazy premium for a company with hardly any growth.

I own TWTR from higher levels, but never thought it was cheap. I am holding long term and will buy the shares when everyone else wants to vomit theirs.

This fucker is heading for a 2 handle, no doubt.

The market knows all, at least when it comes to valuing high growth/profitable companies. Hedge funds employ the smartest men in the world, utilizing the best tools, in order to find these companies worth investing in. For the layman, like yourselves, it’s very hard to find “the next apple”. Often times you are prevented from buying future big winners because of valuation concerns. Some stocks, like AMZN and NFLX, stay expensive and rarely go down. When they do go down, everyone hates them and wishes their ultimate demise.

The true bosses will step in when no one wants them and take a long term position.

What is the formula for the layman to find “a future big winner?” Believe it or not, the criteria is rather narrow.

1. Pre-revenue dreamers: these are concept stocks, like biotech or fucking idiot technology, that will never, ever see the light of day–bid up by morons in a never-ending race towards hedonism–fueled by substance abuse. Whether these stocks make it or not is immaterial, as long as you can get out before the hype wanes.

2. Small capped shit: these are companies too small for that fucking lunatic (choose from the litter: Ackman, S.A. Cohen, Tepper) to buy because, well, they’re too fucking small. This is a good thing for you, the disheveled homeless guy with an E-Trade account. You can mosey your way into one of these fuckers and make a billion dollars, or not. Odds are, you’ll blow the fuck up in fantastically gay fashion. But maybe you won’t. But you probably will.

3. Pre-IPO/Private Equity, Venture Capital pyramid schemes: Maybe you have a contact at Union Square Ventures or fashion yourself to be an expert in social media, segueing your person into the inner-circles of Silicon Valley in a serious effort to rip off fucked faces from Morgan Stanley’s IPO whore department? Yes, indeed. This entails investing in cool tech/shit before regular people and enjoying the ride as Union Square and friends jack up the fucking valuation of your investment to 10,000x sales, and then getting liquid on stupid ass stock brokers at Morgan Stanley, gutting them in a widely acclaimed IPO, promoted by catamites at CNBC. If you don’t know Fred Wilson, odds are you will never, ever get to rip off brokers at Morgan Stanley.

4. Distressed shit: Did you buy NFLX at $60, perhaps? I know that I did. This is one of the few ways the smart layman can brain power his kick-ass self into riches. Find shit to invest in that no one else wants and then watch sentiment turn from sour to sweet, as you kick short sellers in the nuts, all the way to the fucking bank…jank.

5. Traditional investment in free cash flow/ high valuation crap shoots: What the fuck is the difference between PANW and FEYE? I have no fucking idea, other than the fact that I bought one at $80 and rode it down to $45 and another at $80 and rode it up to $200. Growth appears to be the same and the industry appears to be doing well. I’ve resigned myself to the wanton idea that these high valuation winners are merely powerball plays of Wall Street, random careening stocks that intermittently cascade on occasion, in order to fuck the layman from the spoils of capitalism. This is, by far, the hardest way to get a big winner–because of the whack-a-mole nature of investing in high valuation, fashionable, plays.

I will be dedicating my research towards finding potential big winners. Unfortunately, I am not colleagues with Fred Wilson, so I will need to resort to olde fashioned luck and intellect to mark my path of glory.

Stay tuned.

I love biopics. This is one of the best ever, starring George C. Scott as General Patton. The opening scene of this movie is often regarded as one of the best monologues in film history. This is a long film, almost 3 hours, and Scott did an unbelievable job portraying Patton.

I highly recommend this movie.

Fun fact: Scott was a raging alcoholic, picked up during his marine days when guarding Arlington Cemetery. He was also married 5 times and had 6 children and is fucking buried in an unmarked grave.

Most importantly, George C. Scott warned the Academy Awards to not nominate him for best actor; for if he won, he’d refuse it on “philosophical grounds.” Despite his warning, the academy awarded Scott for best actor and he indeed denied to accept it. He was the first actor to ever decline an academy award.