What More Do You Want, Ingrates?

For over a week, I’ve told you to get long gold and to raise cash. With my own money, I am in a 50% cash position and my largest holding is GG. The play here, for me, is to time the next inflection point with sublime mathematical precision, allocate all resources, and drive rail spikes into the thick skulls of volcano men. So don’t fucking come here, in search for Le Fly distraught, strung out by his bullish caprices. I will fucking massacre you!

This is an 80% down day and only a handful of stocks are up. The only sector that is up is gold (you’re fucking welcome). Moreover, the only gold stock that is down because of Greece is EGO (buttfuckers).

BEHOLD in the glory of the superfluities of Americana. They, the Americans, cannot help themselves but to exaggerate moves, both bearish and bullish. Born actors, tradesmen, frontier men, the American will lament over microscopic problems and hallucinate during times of moderate success. He will burn cigarette holes into his furniture and burn down his entire house, drunk and strung out, depressed over a temporary loss of capital. In the past, this American would thrust himself from rooftops, as an antidote for loss of capital. Now he takes heavy doses of psychotropics and fires off shells into crowded movie theaters.

I beam with pride and overjoyous feelings of jubilation when I think about my fortune, being born into this Americana.

If I’m being honest with myself, I’d have to admit that the market has been in a bifurcated bear market since early 2014. Remember the old ‘bubble basket’ ordeal and how 100+ high growth stocks got taken down by a mere 50%+ last year? Or how about the total and complete destruction of the commodity sector this year?  Do we even need to talk about retail, shopping mall stocks, or global growth industrials? Anything related to BRIC is death. I bought a little EGO, to hide in gold, and that motherfucker is down 10% today because one of their Greek mines were shut down by that bastard government.

So what has worked?

Biotech, other healthcare related names, cyber security?

That’s fantastic. Get long the pre-revenue biotechs and companies who police the internet for criminals. This is what our investment world has been reduced to. No longer are we able to buy MSFT, DELL or even GOOG early stage. By the time XYZ is worth a lick, fucking Fred Wilson is doing another round for his private Venture Capital investors and then bringing it public at 100x sales. The only shot we have at outsized returns is buying distressed stocks, derivatives or pre-revenue biotech–hoping for an FDA approval.

Let me repeat that again, so it sinks in.

The only shot we have at outsized returns is buying distressed stocks, derivatives or pre-revenue biotech–hoping for an FDA approval.

As per the title of this post, I think it’s abundantly clear that a super strong US dollar, accompanied by a macro-slowdown in global growth, isn’t exactly what American companies need right now. As such, Janet Yellen would be remiss not to see these early warning signs of wear on this market and the overall integrity of the US economy. Moreover, and I write this with emphatic intentions, if the Federal Reserve raises rates now, as worldwide growth recoils from the commodity collapse aftershocks and Chinese implosion, Janet Yellen and her cohorts are nothing less than first class morons.

Gather around gents and bear witness to the circle jerk. Before you come to partake, please place your brokerage accounts into the flaming barrels of garbage on the side, right next to the heroin needles.

In my previous post I said to “build positions”, which is always a good idea when markets are soft. But what I didn’t elaborate on is the speed in which I think you should do so.

I haven’t purchased anything today. I am more of a “buy the momo” type of person and I rarely catch falling knives. But when I do catch knives, I like to do it slowly, moderate myself to avoid large fuck ups. Today’s decline negates yesterday’s and places us back into the ‘fag-box‘, beholden to Chinese fuckery, who saw their “index” drop by 6% last night.

I wish this was enjoyable; but it isn’t. Watching a market destroy itself in a slow drift lower is always a drag. I’d rather be doing anything but this, literally. Part of me thinks I should be adding to positions today. But then I get visions of large gaps lower and recall the gut wrenching feeling of being “Four Horsemen’d” to death (see last year’s March debacle). So, instead of being brave and true to my mantra, I am opting for a safer route, one hidden and tucked away in cash. I envision myself pouncing on the tape just before it takes off. I will then bathe in $100 bills and light fire to them, nonchalantly, upon my exit.

Banks and gold seem okay today. Risk appetite is definitely non-existent and we need to wade through the final days of summer in order to get a decisive move in either direction.

So what am I saying, exactly?

I haven’t a clue. The market is seemingly rudderless and the only trade that has worked with any consistency is long gold. So, for now, I will keep GG as my largest holding, perhaps add to EGO on weakness, and maybe buy more ONCE if risk appetite makes a reappearance.

Do not think for a second that this lull in activity has made me soft. I will ban you, just as I’ve banned the 3,000+ catamites who’ve come before you.

This is a drawdown market, with sectors trending in and out of favor, totally devoid of reason and honor. Today’s flavor are homebuilders and construction names. Go ahead and delve right in, I am sure nothing horrific will befall you over the next 30 days.

Yesterday’s flavor was biotech. Today they’ve been tossed idly into sewer pipes.

There is nothing redeemable about right now, other than opportunity to build positions, do research, and unwind amidst summertime debauchery.

Just like gold was for August and none of you morons followed suit, hamburgers are for September. Do you have the internal fortitude to step in, pal?

For me, buying SHAK at 15x sales is the equivalent to throwing bags of dollars into a flaming barrel of garbage. Therefore,  I am going to do exactly that.

I’ve come to grips with the fact that fighting valuation is sort of like an old man fighting the kerosene lamp, then electric, then the automobile, then the VCR and now SHAK at 15x sales.  Instead of fighting it, I will soon join the fray, delighted by the absurdity, bathing in the perverse nature of speculation.

My plan will be to buy SHAK every month for 12, sort of like my plan that went astray in HABT, only this time I will up the ante will call options.

Am I mad?

Positively.

Is the market a fun place to invest in these days?

No.

Will it come back to the grandeur we’ve once admired from afar, as small lads running about the prairies as the men from town bet on XYZ will all of the family fortune?

Never.

You’ll need to navigate the rocky waters and dodge harrowing and murderous roadblocks, in order to achieve success. I’ve deliberately reserved a GREAT WHORISH CASH horde for exactly this occasion. Why don’t you join me in this journey to greatness and quit playing about the Twitter all day like submental gobshites?

This screen that I created in Exodus, pretty much tells it all.

The criteria is as follows.

The stock must be up over 20% YTD. +30% over the past year, and over 50% over the past two years. Market cap must be in excess of $1 billion and the average daily trading volume must be over 500k. In total, 160 stocks met this criteria, with the vast majority being black box, shrouded in black smoke, biotechs. Here are some non-biotech winners.

FL

CRM

DATA

MSCI

SEIC

WETF

FCAU

ORLY

MNST

STZ

Towards the end of the day, I dipped into my fucking cash horde to buy EGO, ONCE and GG. Don’t you worry about Le Fly missing the fucking rally. I’m up 24% for the year, bitch.

The last time you lectured me about finance, I ended up sticking a rail spike through your dense heads. Slow your roll and be mindful of whom you’re offering advice to, space alien magician (SAM), geared up in an Orbital Space Cannon (OSC), vaporizing clowns with my homo-hammer (HH).

It was a constructive close. My goals are to fleece those betting against gold and steadily reduce my basis in ONCE, so that I can get–the fuck– out of it at a profit.

Ciao (the most annoying form of goodbye)

Biotech stocks are screaming higher. Many of the names that I asked you to watch as a barometer of risk are careening higher, like EGRX and ESPR. Nevertheless, the over all tone of the market is somewhat milquetoast. Recall, I told you that Exodus was suggesting that the biotech sector was at the bottom of its “hybrid score” range, which is the predictive algorithms that places large bottles of champagne onto the granite kitchen countertops at House Fly.

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We’re not there yet. I’m gonna wait to see how the market approaches the last half hour of trade. I am dying to put money to work.

ONCE is up today, after news hit the tape that KITE’s drug didn’t murder one of its test subjects. Naturally, it’s good to see my stocks up. Even GG is higher for the day, which is interesting for a whole other set of reasons.

Although the market is firming and my stocks are up, I do not have the confidence to reallocate funds towards new long positions. I will, however, add to existing position to manage my cost basis, like I did with ONCE on Friday.

Over the past two years, by far the biggest winners have been found in biotech. There have also been some hideous losers too. I am betting that if biotechs can reassert themselves as leaders again, the overall market will follow suit.

For now, my top picks are GG and ONCE.

Futures are indicating a slightly higher opening tomorrow. You are without an edge, totally exposed to the depravity of monstrous money managers. The “little guy”, steam-boating his way throughout life in search for a better form of transport. You’re stuck in a nightmarish, Kafkaesque, circle jerk. You’re waiting for earnings, Federal Reserve speeches, Chinese horseshit, German horseshit, American politics, masonic plans revealing itself through encoded messages.

Simply put, most of the time, trading the market for short term moves, is no different from pissing in the wind. When the wind turns on you, you’ll be pissing in your own faces in no time at all.

This is a frustrating business. Out of 100 people who I started with, 18 long years ago, maybe 5 are still running money. The ones who quit are now grateful to be out, but secretly regretful that they didn’t try harder because the money is significant.

My relationship with the market is love-hate. When times are good, I am punching holes into the fucking fucktarded faces of people–floating and shit in a most vainglorious fashion, shrouded by large black plumes of incense–impaling weaker men with my cane-sword. Right now I am hating this work. It feels tedious, boring, repetitive and entirely wasteful of my god given talents.

My competitive nature is only outstripped by my sympathy for the hideously deformed reader, dialing into the internets to glean a few morsels of information to help him escape the horrors of his crime-ridden housing tenement.

“The Fly” does it for the people, generously and gloriously, punching this stocked market in the fucking face for the benefit of ordinary, idle, dog-faced, base thinkers.