Like I said on Friday, whether or not I sold at the bottom is completely immaterial. I held on for as long as I could, too long, and it was time that I grabbed control of my fate, instead of allowing the caprices of the market winds direct my trajectory.
I see the futures are up and I am not upset, at least not yet. My sales came before the final dump out, as many of the stocks that I sold fell another $2 or so after I sold.
I had a very refreshing weekend, doing the things that I love, not focusing on the past, but planning for my future. I change my mind so often, it’s hard to pin me down to anything. But I am pretty sure Friday marked an end of an era for me. I bet many of you wonder why I mess around with individual stocks when my “sold called” PPT is supposed to be so reliable. Why not just buy the signals and drink martinis? I have this kinetic energy, the energy of an artist, which is the reason why I love to blog. I need to express myself in the most grandest of ways. Nothing says “my balls swing low” like taking a monster position in XYZ and seeing it work. It’s not even about the money.
But I do have systems that work and I’ve developed them over many years. I am going to give it the old college try, and resist the temptation to jump back into individual stock investing–because I have a problem.
Do you know Hugh Hendry, the bearish lad from the UK who’s always warning the world about deflation? Well, back during the height of the financial crisis, his fund made a staggering 30% in one month on bearish bets. Do you know what happened the very next month? Record redemptions. He said that the +30% month scared people out of his fund and it was the single worst outflow of money that he ever endured–because he showed too much beta.
That’s my problem. Career wise, I’ve hurt myself in many ways by expressing my “artistic talents”, attempting to demonstrate how largess my testicles truly are, indeed. It’s time to reduce the beta, do what I do best, execute macro-market moves with precision, guided by the algorithms that I’ve developed.
Having said that, I wish you all the best in recovering your losses and hope we go +1,000 from here. I am not a bitter man, at least not yet.
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hero!
There are other ways getting out. The trick is to now use the short term gains, transform them into losses by establishing fewer positions. Those positions one then holds long-term. This is short term gains to long term gains shift.
Which bubble do you think is popping? Just nasdaq?
Tech
How ironic. Fly was arguing Tech was not overvalued last week while I was telling him to load up on NUGT and TZA
Why would you not pay attention as much to OB signals for qqq then?
Jennifer
I might just do that. The Ob signals are about 65% accurate, not exactly the same level as oversold.
is that due to the nature of this crazy run up the last few years? Deadly accurate on one side, yet only 65% of the time it works everytime on the other side.
EPIC Post !
Theres nothing wrong with the way you invested in the past so long as that was your mandate with clients. You know speed chopping and all.
my client mandate is not to blow the mkt away to the upside. Just dont lose money when shit hits the fan. Win by not losing. By doing so you h
get the bigger share of wallet. While the fast money is that fast. They can pull your mandate because their fucking pen didnt work in the morning
looking forward to the macro calls her
cheers
Looking forward to a new era in the land of The Fly. As you’ve done before, you will land on your feet. Visit Pelican-land for some tea.
You will find that not being glued to your screen every minute looking for all tell tale market signs will make you happier.
Watch the general activity by sector(s) and one can get the whole market picture.
It’s a primary reason I went to RYDEX funds intraday trading (can use Qs, SPY, etc.).
It frees me up from being a slave to the PC and am quite happy going for singles.
what RYDEX symbols do you daytrade?
Not worthy of critiquing “The Fly”.
But I do think the margin played a factor.
It was up over 100% more than once.
That’s chainsaw juggling
You rock, Fly!
great post
Bravo.
Ahhhhhhh! The comments section is back to normal and the market is heading higher! All is right with the world.
What say you bears, Alfie, Dr. HuggieBear, how are you handling your shorts? Let us be entertained with your trading now that the fly is on a sabbatical.
They are peeing in their shorts, and wringing them out over the
Chipotle’s peekup order.
I am sure there is some of that. I appreciate them posting their positions though. Long or short, we all pee our pants from time to time.
Fly we only live once, and you live right.
Dr. Fly, do you remember my young warlord/old king analogy? You’re evolving. (that’s a compliment) It isn’t an easy process, and has led to the ruin & embarrassment of many a man that fails to realize & intelligently navigate the process.. I consider you to be a pragmatic, self reflective man, and admire these qualities. As you well know, you’re already winning.
It’s a long process that is best navigated by dynamic adaptation.
Le Fly is still young enough to make the bold and swift moves that capture egregious wins. But he is also old enough such that holding positions beyond the -10% threshold is significantly encumbering.
Looked up the warlord comment. That post was Feb 7, and the Fly was 90% cash. If I had closed up shop that day & taken a break, I’d have avoided a lot of stress, and heartache… http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2014/02/07/i-missed-the-rally-now-90-cash/#comment-424313
I’ve been reading since 2010.
There have been some grande posts.
This is the best.
My low beta shit the bed (BAC) The other stuff has me green today.
lol
Awesome post. An excellent display of mental discipline already and moving forward through the forthcoming recovery, I’m sure.
bravo
Guess you were right to sell. Apple hiding the carnage that’s still continuing in tech.
FLY you missed 5% in feye
OMG Carnage.
I am loving this market, I am sorry… absolutely loving it, crazy old turkey..
TRADERCADDY–what RYDEX symbols do you daytrade?
Looks like you saved 5% by bailing out last week.
At least you didn’t bottom tick those names.
Glad Le Fly is giving up the awful addiction known as high beta stocks. You are so much better off trading x2 or x3 Nasdaq/R2000/S&P or even emerging markets both up and down. Look at that little HIV stock known as YELP (sure its a great company) but that MF prob cost the bears many billions on the way up and now is bleeding the bulls to death. I still own FEYE and it’s a disaster that I can’t leave just yet. Did short AMZN in Jan with AAPL long for a 50/50 high crap beta short pairing with an undervalued cash printing machine. Up nicely YTD. What a hole bought MORL and rode the falling rates down with a 20% tot return ytd not including some PHAT divis??