I just got back from a long day with the family. We actually headed over to Brooklyn to Jim Cramer’s Mexican restaurant. It was quite good and he was incredibly gracious to each and every person in attendance. As I was looking at him, I was reading some of the horrible comments in the previous threads here– then I remembered all of the times I poked fun at Cramer on twitter and this site. It’s a bit hypocritical of me to talk smack about a guy, fight all of you miscreants in the comments section for talking about me, then going to eat at his restaurant–shaking his hand and exchanging pleasantries.
The truth is, when trolling about the internet in search of entertainment, we all sort of lose ourselves from time to time, say stupid things and behave in ways that are unthinkable in real life. Believe you me, I rarely kick old men down idle sewer pipes and have never killed a person who didn’t already have it coming.
What I am trying to say is, you people taught me something this week. Seeing how awful some of you behaved here, really digging into my character, trying to ruin my reputation, has reminded me that these words we type onto the screen mean something to some people. This is the last bit of beta-male jargon from “The Fly”–but I’m done taking shots at guys like Cramer because it’s easy.
As for the market: I am reverting back to trading ETFs for awhile, until I get back in a groove. I cannot risk an earnings blow up and do not have the luxury of building positions. So, I am going to use The PPT‘s oversold and overbought algos to think for me, until I get a few singles and doubles under my belt.
The fact of the matter is, this market has me confused. I do not want to bet against it and do not feel like buying mega-cap, slow growth, retard companies. So, instead, when we get a PPT reading that suggests the market is oversold, I will allocate 33% of my assets into QQQ. If we get another OS signal, I will allocate another 33%, until fully invested. The hold period will be a strict 5 trading days, win or loss. And that’s that. I did this back in 2010 and made a King’s fortune using 3x ETFs.
I’ve decided to do this until I make 10%. The PPT‘s oversold rating has a success ratio of 84% since 2008. The overbought rating is less reliable, so I may opt to ignore it. I might only execute 1 trade per month, or maybe zero. Also, because of this new strategy, I will not be sharing the scores here on the free blog any longer, out of respect for current members.
I am heading to the tranches, with 3 shots at winning.
Wish me luck.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Best of luck to you. Keep your head up, you will be back in no time.
good luck
Since I was criticizing his “I have a plan” folly in the prior post, I will chime in to say that this plan is not as terrible as I expected, if he sticks to it.
Given the typical de rigueur here is to say one thing then do the complete, diametric opposite 2 hours later, I think it will be very telling, especially given our differing views on how to build and maintain credibility, if he has the gumption to stick to this plan for more than a few weeks.
I wait with bated breath for the results.
I also want to provide some helpful math that shows why this plan is going to be a very tough (read near impossible) slog:
If His plan is to buy QQQs in 33% increments, and will respect the plan until he can at least gain back 10%.
First, a 10% gain from here will still have him down ~27% ytd, given the magic (or misery) that is compound math. I root for his gain though.
I suspect that -20 ytd will give him some enthusiasm, with -10% ytd being the light at the end of the tunnel, but those will require a 21% gain and 36% gain from here, respectively. Those returns will be nigh impossible trading unlevered QQQ funds.
—-
Second, if he puts in 33% of funds into the OS signal and it works and he sells on strength, then you can do .33 [the percent of funds] * .05 [the expected percent gain] = 0.0165 or a 1.65% overall portfolio gain.
To reach 10%, he would need approximately 6 of these trades, and they would have to earn the high end of the expected return, 5%. Oh an accuracy would be 100%.
Realistically you may need up to 10 OS signals to account for 84% hit rate and possibly less than 5% return in order to make that 10% (which again is still -27% ytd).
There may not be 10 OS signals this year, as that would average more than 1/month, so that would require more patience than we typically see from Fly.
Next, if he does get an OS that leads to more OS (now 66% position) that leads to more oversold (100% position), the averaging may not lead to as big any gain at all.
Here’s the math on that:
Say your assets are 1k, with $333 in each tranche, and QQQ is $65 when first OS hits. that would be 5.1 shares. Next OS QQQ is $60, that would be 5.5 shares (bear with fractional shares plz), next OS is $55.5 that would be 6 shares.
Now QQQ is currently $55.5 / share and your cost is a full position at $59.87. Well, that would require that the QQQs bounce 7.8% just to break even which, is more than the average 5%. So even with a full bounce you may just barely lose money or make money, but unlikely to have a big bottom line gain.
A 10% QQQ bounce there would put the QQQs at 61.05, giving you a 1.97% gain on your whole portfolio, which is not bad in an of itself, but prior to the bounce you had a full position that was down 7.8% so in essence you are risking 7.8% to make the 1.97%, which is really bad risk reward. Let alone if any black swannery happens and the market doesn’t bounce as expected.
—-
I respect that this plan sounds sensible but the math shows it is going to be eminently difficult to pull off.
GL Though
Don
I never said this plan would get me back to even. If I don’t make it back this year, there is always next year. The point is to slow things down and take control
I never suggested that or even implied it.
What is clear (and what I explained thoroughly, with math) is that even getting a +10% gain with that strategy is going to be very difficult
and +10% still = -27%ytd.
tough plan, still difficult outcome
Don
I think you discount the fact that I am assuming that there will be a very distressed market soon and that I might find myself 100% invested long, if we get 3 oversold signals
I covered that, but of course the numbers I use are educated guesses.
“Next, if he does get an OS that leads to more OS (now 66% position) that leads to more oversold (100% position), the averaging may not lead to as big any gain at all.
Here’s the math on that:
Say your assets are 1k, with $333 in each tranche, and QQQ is $65 when first OS hits. that would be 5.1 shares. Next OS QQQ is $60, that would be 5.5 shares (bear with fractional shares plz), next OS is $55.5 that would be 6 shares.
Now QQQ is currently $55.5 / share and your cost is a full position at $59.87. Well, that would require that the QQQs bounce 7.8% just to break even which, is more than the average 5%. So even with a full bounce you may just barely lose money or make money, but unlikely to have a big bottom line gain.
A 10% QQQ bounce there would put the QQQs at 61.05, giving you a 1.97% gain on your whole portfolio, which is not bad in an of itself, but prior to the bounce you had a full position that was down 7.8% so in essence you are risking 7.8% to make the 1.97%, which is really bad risk reward. Let alone if any black swannery happens and the market doesn’t bounce as expected.”
But look speculating about this price or that, I think the essence of why it could be a tough trade is there
Don
I will show you actual numbers from previous results.
Do you have any comment on the fact that the math (ie the nuts and bolts) of the plan illustrate that even a 10% gain will be extremely difficult to achieve?
.
“OD” … ah hem … if I can call you “OD” …
—–
Whether you ARE a “Fly Fan” …
Whether you are NOT a “Fly Fan” …
Whether you don’t know “Fly” from a “Hole In The Wall ” …
.
NUMBERS NEVER LIE !!!
Kudos on what ARE … when RUBBER vs. ROAD realistic expectations !!!
GOOD STUFF !!! IMO
.
.
I think EVEN “Fly” would admit … it WON’T be easy !
Nice post(s) !!! IMO
.
.
… as I reread them … again … and … again …
VERY NICE POSTS !!!
.
Thanks Alf, appreciate it
😉
I have to respectfully disagree with your analysis. 10 % is attainable and such has been attained in the past.
The post was for the “Original Don”. Sorry for posting twice, as this was my first attempt here.
…..”This is the last bit of beta-male jargon from “The Fly”–but I’m done taking shots at guys like Cramer because it’s easy.”
The Election debates…You must make exceptions, Twitter won’t be the same.
Any Political peckerwood Official, reporter or cheerleader is fair game in My book
All self appointed Guru’s demand a poke in the eye as well…especially the Twitter type with Marketing skills
If I have to go it alone?
so be it, just won’t be the same
If people deserve it, I will offer it. But, come on, guys like Cramer, busting their ass to try to help others, they don’t deserve harsh ridicule.
Don’t know if I ever went on a rant about Cramer, I find he is early in some of his picks (I don’t follow daily) beyond that? No issues
OA has been taking some flap lately too I figure it’s just Marketing Guru’s trying to sell a new indicator or Robo Trading software, I tune out quickly as the BS meter goes full tilt
We all screw around and poke fun at people with our keyboards; but you are right, some probably take it the wrong way. I wish you much success fly and like your plan. I have been there before too.
What a freak! Put yo pants on. My mama just had a heart attack.
I really like this new Fly, I have no idea how long it will last but enjoy it while it lasts
Any man willing to admit 32% losses with the large audience you have has my respect.
I hope you win it all back and then some. That being said, I must admit its been very entertaining to read the comments section.
Good luck Fly.
Everybody running a book has been there. The times you have to crawl back from the gutter are the times you grow as a trader and as a person. You will succeed, you have done it before. Good luck Fly
kill em
Great post – I’ve noticed a distinct pickup in traffic of pervert/ weirdo posts lately on this blog which shows all kinds of creatures enjoy following you/lampooning you and taking cheap shots. My advice – get retard drunk, do some blow, fornicate with dirty hookers and forgot the world. Wake up tomorrow and attack the markets again. Everybody cops a loss at some stage. Chin up ol boy!
Dr. Fly, good luck!
As for Cramer? You may be a little starstruck. He has an incredible personality, and a definite motive (repeat customers) to be a gracious & gregarious gent. Your criticisms of him in the past have had merit, and I believe he is a man that is paid a tidy sum by the people behind the curtain, to misdirect the retail participants. I’m glad you had a fine meal, and that he treated your family well. I can only hope that you all consumed as many free limes as possible.
The QQQ is an interesting choice. It should move the most. Especially if this is a tech wreck. Violent rips.
QQQ doesn’t move enough.
Double up with QLD and QID.
Yes FLY, I concur with this. You need to get into the 2x and 3x demons on a ppt oversold, not the 1x patsies.
Love the Cramer! Hardest working man in financial journalism, bar none. Well maybe ChessNwine comes close!
Cramer started this whole financial blogging biz & took it to the next level. TSCM was my first subscription on the internets.
Thanks, Fly. I was serious about wanting to know the plan you intended to take and wasn’t being facetious. I have been here long enough to low that you are good at this.
You know it has been particularly bad trading when there is this kind of traffic on a weekend including you at all hours. Up late, up early trying to unravel the Gordian Knot of unprecedented losses in short order while the broad indexes look unscathed. Was it Yellen’s statements before Congress (multiple contraction is coming with riding rates), the Russians invading Borat’s sleeve of wizard cousins; the HFT cabal’s revenge against 60 minutes for exposing what everybody already knew or the blood moon? Risk on, risk off, this all felt well coordinated and fast like a blitzkrieg around the Maginot Line of high growth stocks (calling them mo-mo just makes me feel like I really had it coming. They have been the Polish cavalry taking on Panzers and Stukka dive bombers). No sharp bounces, no double tops, just a trap door to Hell with message board demons looking for scapegoats.
That said, iBC is a good service and we will find our footing. A well deserved hat tip to Chess for the last 6 weeks. His daily review was fairly prescient. I kept buying the falling knives looking for the big bounce. Poor discipline catches up with you big time in bad markets.
Clock out and enjoy your family.
Good wordsmith, Sir!
I used to watch Cramer when I was new to the market. For me, trying to study the market can be SO dry that watching him kept it interesting. So I am grateful to him for those times.
As my trading style outgrew watching Cramer, I found The Fly. You are SO entertaining to read Fly that I read you every day. You keep what is still for me sometimes a dry topic entertaining.
I am sorry for the losses you have had. It has pained me to read. As an amateur, I appreciate your honesty in what has happened because I have a hard time with my own mistakes. And I know I need to get perspective on mistakes to be a good trader long-term.
This market is weird and artificial. I feel it’s been a hard time to be an amateur learning about it because it is ‘off’ and hard to read like one should be able to from the past and patterns. Your struggle with this market as a professional confirms this.
I live in summit, nj and he’s a really nice guy. He will stop and talk to you even when he does not know you and if you wave at him he waves back.
We all have an online alter ego(s). At times we show our true colors which we can’t afford to in the real world. Now which is the real “me” is philosophical and up to each individuals.
I am glad you opt to trade instrument like QQQ as opposed to SPY which seems has yet to really correct. In the past you tend to react to a name(chase on an up day), while OA tends to anticipate (front run). But in recent weeks, neither is working. I am more comfortable dealing with ETFs.
Good luck!
Good plan. Will take a lot to blow up the market (as opposed to individual stocks). Was my plan too until I got sucked into owning too many stocks by visions of vast profits. No discipline = idiot here. So it goes.
Good luck with everything, Fly, although you won’t need it as you’re a great trader and thoughtful blogger. I’ve been reading your stuff every single day since 2008 or thereabouts.
Aussie J!
Yea it’s me. I couldn’t get onto the site a while ago as Fly had closed it down to keep the riff raff out.
Yeah, well Cramer hurts people too ya know. When he bashes a stock and sends it down…guess what? Yes, there are people long that name that get tattooed. Like he did recently with $KNDI and his “go-cart” comments. I hope the fvcker chokes on a Chimichanga and someone kicks him down an idle sewer pipe. He’s a wad.
That’s ridiculous.
A financial commentator must make recommendations, positive and negative. If not, then there can be no financial commentary.
Besides, not everyone lost money when he bashed KNDI. If you were short the stock, you would have been very happy.
There are 2 sides to every trade. His comments can help and hurt holders at the same time, depending on which side of the trade you’re on.
I didn’t make comments on what you should do, because you know what you did and what to do….I did want to write, don’t sit still let fear grab you…do a plan and implement it….fwiw, I often use 5 day rules, tons of stuff trade in five day patterns….and people’s comments on how long it takes to make a plan…jesus, about an hour….good luck man
You realise the most likely reason behind your “Oversold” signals 87% success rate since 2008 is because it has been one of the greatest bull markets of all time…
Not surprised the Overbought signal has failed…
IMO, if the market really craps out, you’ll be getting a slew of false BUY signals from your indicator
I have been reading your work for about 3 years and never commented. It makes me sad and depressed to see you lose your chutzpah, as that’s what in my view, made you a great trader.
i dont think you shouldve sold you positions in this tech wobble, and i intend to buy them on US open monday
Ah, the internet. So easy to kick a man when he’s down; the true mark of a faggot.
I’m a member of the PPT I cant wait to follow your trades on ETF’s. I’m all cash as of last Thursday like you… I am not sure where this market is going. we are at a cross road and I took a bath early in the 2014 year. I cant afford to lose again either. You’re a good man Fly. Your mouth is a bit fast on the trigger, but I see you maturing there as well. I’m 52 so I’m done with trash talking, ( I could draw blood with my tongue at your age) but now it just takes too much energy.
Thats a great plan, Fly.
Might i suggest you be slow to invest on any O/S signals this week until the jobs report comes out?
Also, I got myself out of a lot of holes i dug over the last 5 years exactly the way you just described. I stopped doing everything except buying TNA on oversold signals. Probably two or three times dug myself out of a deep hole.
I agree Huggie. the problem with this market it that it has no credibility. That’s what makes it so different from any other bull market. everyone knows its the 40 Billion a month in QE that took it back up here. I honestly have no faith in this mkt. Its a fantasy Mkt. and at some point (some year) the truth what rules this wet dream. I’m not sure we are there yet. Earnings seem to be stable so far. but the truth will be in the housing mkt. Obama can not manipulate those numbers. and with most people only able to obtain part time jobs the truth will have to come out at some point.
Fly, puhlease, save us the Cramer defense. Neither Cramer nor you are out to help anyone but yourselves. I always wondered why people that claim to know what it takes to make trillions insist on selling their secrets (their tools) to “help” others. That’s bollocks. Sorry, but I don’t buy it. And by the way, forget Cramer, go back and read your own blog comments to your own audience and you’ll understand why people are apathetic to your losses.
Dude!… Kumbaya….. feel the PEACE MAN?
You really can’t handle sarcasm, can you? Do you get pissed off when you read Dealbreaker too?
Khan
You are a very cynical person. Look inward.
Yes, I am very cynical. Just look at the world around you and you will see why.
The world isn’t black and white khan. There are many shades of gray. You can’t go throughout life thinking everyone is horrible. It’s no way to live.
Dude,
You killed millions… built mountains out of human sculls… just shut up and suck on the horse milk buddy.
Genghis, you were the most horrible mass murderer and genocide person in the history of the world. Your opinion sucks.
Take a break first, may be holiday with kids… I would not jump right back here … end of April / beginning of May – don’t like this timing…
Sometimes it is ok to sit out and just watch. I’ve never given you an advise simply because I think you are better than me at this. Taking a break, may be few days, may be few weeks – this is what I would have done.
Partridge
This strategy almost guarantees a break.
Good, wish you well good Dr.
Keep your head up & your middle fingers higher!!
So David Einhorn goes on television, says there is a tech bubble, and that creates more selling pressure? I love YELP, i think it’s a great company.
I’ve always, actually, sort of liked Cramer. It’s not that he’s a bad stock picker – his job is impossible. Good luck to anyone who tries to call 5-7 winners every. single. day.
Only interested in a few singles, that’s why I opted for Qqq over leveraged etfs
.
… individual stocks are ALL “ticking time bombs” … TICK TICK TICK … as you sit there fully dressed in “Hurt Locker Attire” !
—–
I rarely trade individual stocks !
Been trading leveraged ETFs for a while now !
.
Alf, we are in a secular bull market
.
… OKAY !!!
—–
And yet … I’m CURRENTLY SHORT … and “makin’ mooh-lah” !!!
Tattoo that “Secular Bull Market” BS on your arm … right next to “Mom” !!!
Tell me how that works out !!!
GLTY !!!
.
Alf, I”m not a trader, per se. I hold a stock for 2-3 months at least, and I”m a fundamental cat, not technical at all. That being said, I think money can be made in individual stocks. I bought FB after it’s IPO crash, because everyone is so obsessed with it.
.
GODSPEED !!!
I hope you prosper beyond your wildest dreams !
I TRUELY DO !!!
.
if all of this has offered a deeper and wider perspective, perhaps it was worth it. Thanks for this post and your continued transparency in your daily work.
All the best with your plan, Le Fly. I’m sure you will emerge from this recent unpleasantness an even better trader.
And tho I’m glad you had a good dinner with your family, and I agree that Cramer can be quite charming, the value you provide here, both in terms of practical, real-time trading advice and the entertainment value of your writing, is infinitely superior to anything Cramer’s ever done.
Your point about online trollery is otherwise taken, however. All the best on your next moves.
I met cramer before in LA. Maybe its the city that bought out the worst in him but he came off poorly. Im glad he appears to have mended up and might be a full human after all. Who am i to judge? I wish for 1/1,000 of his sucess.
This business is rough and brings out the best and worst in men( & women). When i am up big i am an arrogant bastard. When i am down big i am always humbled. Is it any wonder algos beat most of us. Their code lacks emotion.
Im sorry for your troubles and getting back on the horse after a rough fall is always a slow and arduous process. I wish you nothing but a strong constitution and hardy resolve.
Just remember this is all trivial and meaningless. In the end no one is really keeping score.
I’m personally really excited about this new stage of the market! Good luck Fly. Fuck you Gary. 😀
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/marks-public-money-supporting-risky-investments-T_ltatfqQzqoQsSHRMsxsA.html/
War about to start in Ukraine; Helicopter was just blew up by an RPG. Whewwww tear down the house
Link? I am on RTNews, AlJazzera, BBC, NYT there is nothing. So if you don’t have a link, that makes you a STINKIN PIECE OF SHIT INTERNET TROLL.
hI DOGHSHIT, Bloomberg live feed… nothing…bye
Happened Friday, copter on ground, pilot escaped
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/140425/ukraine-military-helicopter-hit-rpg-kramatorsk
Danny Boy just heard about it lol
I found out easier just shorting vxx when vix is 17 or above or go long vxx when vix is at 13 and below..
YTD return?
Heart, my heart, so battered with misfortune far beyond your strength,
up, and face the men who hate us. Bare your chest to the assault
of the enemy, and fight them off. Stand fast among the beamlike spears.
Give no ground; and if you beat them, do not brag in open show,
nor, if they beat you, run home and lie down on your bed and cry.
Keep some measure in the joy you take in luck, and the degree you
give way to sorrow. All our life is up-and-down like this.
Archilochus
The Fly will be back better than ever, and the Nymph is going to cream if you stay cordial with Cramer !
In the depth of winter I finally learned that there was in me an invincible summer – camus
I surf Waves but Fly has a Time Machine …
Jim Cramer is the reason why I found this game I love so much. He was my first teacher and taught me so much about Fundie Analysis. I had to break away from him when I started this study in Bubble 101 in 2009. He wanted me to be bullish and I just couldn’t because I could see the bubble forming and I needed to learn why and how it finally pops. Got to meet Jim Cramer too at his USC show. He is a great guy. Maybe one day I will get to meet the Fly too, I hope you told JIm who you were. Oh, Oh one of my Favorite Jim and James stories….It was 2007 and I was at Stockpickr, I was shaken to the core when a Blogger Wished I would get Cancer after I pointed out the weakness in his stock. Both Jim Cramer and James Altucher told me how it I joined a club which they were long standing membership in, they both were there for me. James Altucher also reminded me that in this game sometimes you feel so smart and then like a mugger in the night it will leave you in an alley bleeding and shaking..but that is just the game.
.
Jim Cramer = Finger Nails on a Chalkboard !!!
.
.
… can’t listen to it !!!
.
Alf he is a Stock Junkie, I always enjoy fellow junkies even if we are on the opposite sides of trades.
.
… YES !!!
“Junkies” are kewl !!!
We can NEVER have ENOUGH fricking “Junkies” !!!
—–
SIGH !!!
.
.
… WILD ASS GUESS !!!
I’m guessing Cramer charges $12 – $15 or, MORE … for a “House Margarita” … at his lil Boutique Tequila Bar … and, you could drink’em till Closing Time … and NEVER cop a BUZZ !!!
—
CRAMER ???
TEX – MEX ???
MARGARITAS ???
.
GET A ROPE !!!
.
.
… prolly ~ $18 to $20 for a Top Shelf !!!
.
.
FLY !
Post a YELP review of Cramer’s Tequila Bar !
DO IT !
YELP IT OUT, DUDE !!!
.
.
HELL !!!
You’re a YELP shareholder !!!
—
Post a review of YOUR experience !!!
.
So True..Never enough Junkies. Anyone can post on YELP.
Look at the bright side. At least you didn’t have to chop your own penis off when you were wrong.
Here’s hoping for a market where the FED and the Algos would just go away and never come back. Let’s face it, when in the history of the stock market has bad news equaled good news for the market and vice versa? Bring back the days when the market didn’t have crazy algo driven swings based on one tiny scrap of news or when the FEDs money printing had such a heavy influence. I know people love the FEDs market pumping but it is the antithesis of what a non manipulated market should be.
Fly, I enjoy reading your posts and have no doubt that you will bounce back. Just don’t try to make it all back overnight, that’s what usually compounds the losses at least always in my case.
Fly,
The 4/24 post on PPT of the bubble basket holdings noting that other managers follow his lead helped explain a lot. I understand your Friday morning move better. I should have looked sooner at the substance of the PPT and spent less time reading the message boards. Sorry about that. I have felt this has been too violent and relentless a sell off in the absence of bad earnings, the Fed jacking rates or Putin being fitted for a Napoleon costume to not be somehow coordinated and this certainly gives that theory credence. Normally, there would be bear rallies to offer short term trading opportunities.
It may be noteworthy to list high flyers that have positive earnings, great growth prospects, that have sold off substantially and that are not on the list – CRTO, SINA come to mind. While Einhorn. et al. are targeting publicly a 90% sell off, where do you think they privately start to cover or build long hedge positions?
Thanks
Db strings
I intend to discuss this matter a great deal over the next week inside ppt
@devildog lol love the ibc history! @fly – love the blog and the ibc premiums rock. You have done more for many than most will ever do for any. Shake it off. You are a magician!
You’re gonna lose it all again.
I really love the naïveté of amateurs here. If you haven’t witnessed a substantial drawdown you’re a newbie at best.
Jennifer I am enclosing a picture of my ASS for you to ponder before trading Monday. http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=donkey+picture&id=6713C8079F3F408A188BB5509A8099AB300C1CFE&FORM=IQFRBA#view=detail&id=6713C8079F3F408A188BB5509A8099AB300C1CFE&selectedIndex=0
.
… OKAY, call me crazy but …
I clicked on tha link … and, I gotta say …
—–
THAT IS ONE HELLAVA CUTE “ASS” !!!
.
.
… that is some CUTE ass !!!
.
.
BLESS THEIR LITTLE HEARTS !!!
.
SORRY !!!
.
I’m gonna need a minute !!!
.
SERIOUSLY !!!
.
Okay !
.
I think I’m fine, now !
.
NO !
.
WAIT !
.
Could I get a tissue ?
.
DAMN !
That’s some CUTE ASS !!!
.
I just bought FEYE at the close on Friday, 500 shares. I plan on holding for at least a year. What do you think?
You should not sink all your capital into one stock.
I like the strategy of using the Qs from oversold levels. That let’s you position for some gains without over exposing yourself should the rest of the market crack. Chess posted an intersting stat: when Jan is negative, Dow is (6%) through the summer. Fly do you think this run up in the large cap tech was part of a pair trade coupled with the bubble basket? When Einhorn was out there wth CNBC running his advertising before the earnings for AAPL and FB, I thought he might cover or flip some of those trades. No such luck. You only publicize and pound the table when you are all in and looking for some assisted exits. I suspect there will be an assist from some of the wirehouses to downgrade and lower targets. That will mark the beginning of the end as momentum on that news will make it a fait accompli that allows them to flip or exit. Too bad we don’t have an Icahn for his Ackman.
One other thing – since the overbought signals didn’t work for the past 5 years, what makes it so clear they won’t work going forward? If up is down in this market (which I think it is) then I’d be looking to fade your PPT overbought signals. Just a hunch.
I’m personally not willing to sacrifice my stupidly absurd gains since 2009 for the better part of the next year. Who the hell knows what will transpire with a Ben less fed?
Jennifer
The overbought signals have worked and netted a negative return, which is mighty fine considering the bull run. It’s just not as good as the oversold
Yes I just wonder if the momo names from 2013 are underperforming so badly then perhaps something has changed and those tools that worked so well in 2009-13 might not work so well going forward.
Something has changed. The bubble is popping.
Finally..stupid bubble.
Sounds like a reasonable strategy. Thanks for all your open and honest posts during these hard times. Best of luck Fly.
.
Sir Fly … if I may be so bold as to offer a suggestion for your “Tranche Warfare” plan …
Consider a diversified “hedging strategy”…
… including the implementation of some carefully positioned “New York Taxi Cab Medallions” … AND …
… some “FANTEX Arian Foster (Houston Texan Running Back) Tracking Stock” !!!
—–
Thank me later !!!
😉
.
If you’re going to use leveraged Q’s why not just use the Nasdaq future? It’s literally the equivalent buying or selling ~820 shares of the Q’s for 5% of what you normally pay for it.
No leverage. Straight up qs, boring 2-5% rips
But is there a specific reason to use the Q’s rather than the futures? On % terms the movement is exactly the same for the qqq’s and the futures. The only difference would be cash/margin to hold the position.
I am not comfortable with futures, out of my realm of expertise.
.
… wouldn’t you need sumpin beyond a Series 7 ?
In a Managed Account ???
.
Gotcha.
I love it. This blog just keeps getting more interesting watching the Fly evolve. All the best to you. El Muppeto.
Luck Fly.
Jennifer, we all heard about your great gains. A fucking monkey would have have made great gains the past four years. But your the only one here that has to keep telling everyone and their God Damn Brother!. over and over. Enough already!! Congratulations on your fucking GAINS!! For Christ sakes!!
I lost my company in 2008, built it to $8.5m from my bedroom, without one employee. Then my biggest supplier decided to move their business elsewhere. I learnt a lot since then, especially treating everybody with respect, including the people who have little or no impact in my life.
I always enjoy your blog and wish the best to you.
Jennifer is a bimbo.
She brings more insight to the table than you and relays it with vastly superior intellect, so, there’s that
I’m more in agreement with Livermore, (although I would not use that term)
Jennifer = Original Don
The fake avatars are annoying.
I’m with you.
I am finding it difficult to wade through the comments especially since it’s easily more than half that are from the same person.
They are linked to IP address, so they stay consistent if the person uses the same IP each time.
Whats with the cartoon like gravatar’s?
I love the name calling here. Not once have I ever made a personal attack. Shows the level of intellect we have here with some peopl
definitely
Whatever you say Original Don, AKA Jennifer.
So, Fly– did you give Cramer’s establishment a good review on Yelp?
“One of the most read finance sites in the country” lol that is certainly not true, pretty absurd statement for a random blog
“one of the most” = in the top 50,000
??
Good plan, Fly. You dont need me to tell you that the best traders in the world cut the size and frequency of trades when they are having a cold streak. I also don’t understand this market right now and while still trading, have cut sizes appropriately.
It’s a sign from the gods – your fate awaits in Romania where leadership is respected and goats are plentiful.
I’ll run some numbers for you don, using this exact set up and subsequent outcome. All previous barbs aside, I look forward to your input
Thanks, look forward to reading it
I’m not used to Le Fly cowing to the unwashed. The world has gone mad !!!!
Sir Fly, where do you get all these crazy avatars, my avatar looks a little retarded …
Fuck it, I’m done here until banning resumes. Good luck all.
Livermore, if everyone just ban themselves, then Sir Fly will not have to do the banning …
.
… I think the “Cloak Room” is down the Hall … take a left at the Men’s Room … you can’t miss it !!!
BTW, there is a loaded revolver in my coat pocket !
PLEASE … by all means … feel free to use it !!!
.
Come and blow me in the cloak room.
Senor Tropicana – Your comeback strategy seems sensible, and evidence that you are in fact more than just a gambler on a hot bull streak.
With the greatest of respect I might suggest that the strongest stocks are the first to fall over at the end (canaries in the coal mine) Perhaps your intuition is telling you that the market type is changing (not necessarily the market direction yet).
We have been in a benign low volatility melt up for some time, it could be that the recent change in volatility is turning the market from the familiar to the unfamiliar.
The simple fact is that we are at a market inflection point, and the odds are unknowable at this point. If the bears drop it down this week, we now have a series of lower highs and lower lows which will have the beartards whooping for joy and getting smart-mouthed again.
If we go up, even a little, from here, the odds are high we start a short squeeze, quickly shooting to fresh highs.
Livermore is such a pussy
Fly, grab your dick and go long and hard SSYS, guarantee it will be at $150 before year’s end.
Sigh. A bad sign indeed. No one pays hedge fund fees for macro calls, especially given the low cost of 3x ETFs. I look forward to the day your clients pay you to trade stocks.
And why Qs, when it is proven TNA/TZA respond best to the PPT’s OS signals? Are you indeed betting that tech outperforms? After the tech ravage shows no sign of abating? I would not argue that the PPT will catch the bottoms, but why do you think the Qs perform better from here on?
•Seasonal slogan time is here.
•Five encouraging economic trends suggest (finally) escape velocity.
•Most investors remain sidelined — except the affluent.
•There are some solid investment ideas that fit the climate.
•Recession risk remains low.
~dude on Seeking Alpha; Jeff Miller. I like his weekly commentary a lot.
Kill the fake avatars Senor Fly. You are inadvertently giving the unwashed a face. A simple pile of dog shit on a sidewalk would be more appropriate.
Iron
I am making them the monsters they truly are.
.
OH MY GAWD !!!
In an attempt, to pull up my iPad “Notepad” … and … write / edit …a new post …
I damn near mistakenly deleted my recipe for …
SALISBURY STEAK WITH MUSHROOM GRAVY !!!
—–
THAT … would NOT have been good !!!
SHEEESH !!!
.
.
… LAUGH !!!
Go Ahead and Laugh !!!
—–
You obviously have NEVER had my …
SALISBURY STEAK WITH MUSHROOM GRAVY !!!
.
Give your heart a break ALF! Have a salad, eat some fruit. Fatty meats and gravy plug up the plumbing.
.
… AGAIN …
—–
You obviously have NEVER had my …
SALISBURY STEAK WITH MUSHROOM GRAVY !!!
.
.
… got a Fugi Apple … cued up for Breakfast !
Thank you for your concern !!!
Love Ya, Man !!!
.
Nothing wrong with steak. It’s the exercise that is lacking in America. Eat grass fed too.
Fly, grab your dick and go long and hard DDD, guarantee it will be back over $100 before year’s end.
Fly, do you expect to get back most of your -32% this year? (BTW: that is +47% just to get back to even)
Le Fly.
What an interesting post. Background, in case you read this. I dropped out of grad. school to day trade in 1998. Ran a prop. office for almost 13 years. Left NYC blah blah blah, I have never posted on your site but have read it for years. Bookmarked on my phone. Do not give up. You sound defeated. Retreat. Get some exercise. Maybe vacation. Ignore the haters. The market will do what it will do. Stay nimble. Send me an email. Get some sun. Don’t give up! I love your posts!
Warm regards.
J. deTray.
Good Luck! I’m right with ya.
I’ve lurked here awhile and rarely post, but found myself coming out of the woodwork the past week or so to defend against the haters. I can’t stand people who dog-pile. Never understood the smell blood thing. I lack the killer instinct gene, I guess. Anyway, I’ll likely stop posting again as things settle down here so good luck with the new strategy. We unregistered posters are not all monsters. But I like my avatar nonetheless.
I hope you eased up on the Fly death grip handshake on little Jim.
They are doing EVERYTHING to get Europe/futs up
Ridiculous Euro pump, usual Italy/Spain bond push
I do believe having to work harder and harder to get these moves.
Also as Draghi admits a WEAKER Euro would be necessary.
Just saying for the record, I’m aware, of the games, And YOU should realize it’s not “investors” deciding to “put money to work” lol
First part of your commentary above, this is exactly why I never and would never buy YELP. I will not go into it, but I worked for a small business and malicious commentary on that site had dire consequences.
Why must you only go long with QQQ? What about going short via SQQQ when you get over bought signals?