This rally is all about Ben and his proclivity to add liquidity into the system. A few weeks ago we believed he was going to take away the punch bowl. Today we all believe the party will continue because the economy isn’t strong enough. Hence, there is great irony in this rally. It has all of the trappings of a blow off top.
I am not liquidating, just yet, because I don’t have anything better to do with my capital. Am I going to put it into bonds or cash? No, I’d only do that if I felt a huge decline were imminent. If the market sells off from here, I know it will be shallow–because the economy is weak and Big Ben has my back.
Today’s biggest winners are the names that dropped the hardest when we thought the Fed was going to ‘taper’: gold, silver, homebuilders, commodity related stocks, even REITs.
Today’s prevailing wisdom is TLT is going higher and rates are going lower. Therefore, inflation is likely to occur and we all must prepare for the $100 tomato again.
God, sometimes I really hate how simple this business is. The essence of Wall Street is imbued with infantile decision makers.
That’s why this is a young’s man game. To trade without fear is a powerful thing. The old men in wheeled chairs are too busy protecting their assets in Tootsie roll, as the 20 something year old punks kill it in soon-to-be insolvent concept stocks. The game has been the same for over 100 years, only the players change.
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When do we short WTI?
Gotta go water the tomatoes.
So true, Player.
I woke up, checked futures, they were up 160 on the dow or whatever. Then I must have fallen asleep and dreamed I checked it again and it was down 190. ha
SCO yesterday…oil gonna falter
Long Live the Fly
My trading has become horrific since i adopted a more risk averse posture at the end of 2011.
Trading without fear is okay when we are in a nice trend (up or down).
However, when volatility picks up, and we either crash or ramp up, I have found the opposite to always be true.
It’s time to buy when you are about to vomit buckets and it is time to sell when one believes him (her) self to be the smartest person on Wall Street. By the way, it is a young person’s game to the extent time is their side. An old person has no time to make up losses.
“It’s time to buy when you are about to vomit buckets…”.
So true. Best trade I ever made my hands were shaking so bad I couldn’t even hit the keys to enter the order. The stock doubled in under two weeks.
Me too.
I recall the Oct. ’87 crash and when the market opened on the Tues. AM following the Monday crash I started buying about an hour after the open.
The Tues open was a strong quick rebound followed by more waterfall losses.
I started to average down during the cascading plummet. I was so scared I recall shaking like a leaf and just about gagging (even though I knew it was the thing to do).
TY Greenspan about 11:15 AM (and thus the name of Fly’s subs. service). Turn around Tuesday was sweet but I was as scared a sniper in the Mekong Delta in Vietnam.
But you were a much younger dude then….
So, is the bond bubble crash over and Senor Fly buying TLT?
Boys, you don’t have to bet the ranch. Bernank giveth and he taketh away because he has no clue. Look at that TNA up 3%. Take the rest of the day off.
If you think Bernanke has not clue, then you have no clue.
Now, you have no clue – you are clueless. The Bernank said there was no housing bubble right before it collapsed. The Bernank cannot accurately predict next quarter’s GDP. The Bernank is fired. Bye bye Bernank.
.. its his job to pretend to fail!!
Mr. Fly, you in IMMR for the long run?
Bought some HTCH
On the dip here, there’s a poster here who also has liked this one too.
$SAM
wtf happened to LEDS???
never mind..I see the report..hemorrhaging cash..average down or get the fuck out??