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Dr. Fly
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,474 Blog Posts

How Confident Are You, Punk?

Dr. Fly Tue Jun 25, 2013 4:16pm EST 14 Comments

10yr
According to Trim Tabs, more than $60 billion outflows in bond funds were reported last week.

The last time consumer confidence numbers were this high was in January of 2008.

Buyer beware.

Still 65% cash.

NOTE: This is why CHINA SUCKS.

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14 comments

  1. JTU
    JTU
    June 25, 2013 at 4:23 pm

    Up 2% today! So yeah, feeling lucky!

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  2. Masanda
    Masanda
    June 25, 2013 at 4:27 pm

    Using these upward motions in the market to build a small but meaningful position in TZA. No one can divine the direction of the market but on sentiment, both global and domestic, lower seems more probable than higher. Do we jetpack back up and take out the all-time highs? Nothing’s out of the realm of possibility but the odds aren’t quite in favor of that outcome.

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  3. OG
    OG
    June 25, 2013 at 4:53 pm

    But everyone is so damn bearish?

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  4. djmarcus
    djmarcus
    June 25, 2013 at 5:02 pm

    Fairly confident. Higher before lower, if lower is in the cards.

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  5. Matanzas
    Matanzas
    June 25, 2013 at 5:12 pm

    Edward Snowdon told the Chinese to sell US Treasuries & they’ve just begun

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  6. Freebie
    Freebie
    June 25, 2013 at 5:18 pm

    Help me understand why the SPY/TLT correlation has reversed. When TLT is high, like above 115, you want it to have an inverse correlation with stocks because money flows between stocks and bonds? But now that TLT is too low, its so low that you are afraid people will sell stocks for bond yield and so the inverse correlation is no longer expected?

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    • The Fly
      The Fly
      June 25, 2013 at 6:38 pm

      Because rates are dropping too fast. It’s the rate of change that is startling. And this whole economic experiment is predicated on cheap money, isn’t it?

      How can the govt finance its debt with rates going up!?

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  7. The Next New Cat Thing
    The Next New Cat Thing
    June 25, 2013 at 5:22 pm

    Mr. Fly, I am not making the bull case but you are looking at the data in 2008 and 2013 as equal points on a graph. There is a difference in Jan 2008 Consumer Confidence was declining, now in 2013 it is rising.

    See chart:
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s%5B1%5D%5Bid%5D=UMCSENT&s%5B1%5D%5Brange%5D=10yrs

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  8. lol
    lol
    June 25, 2013 at 9:32 pm

    It’s the old “jerk around” we get first.

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