Everyone is expecting the market to rally soon. The REITs are at the top of everyone’s buy list and just about every broker I know is positioning for a rally. But there is two sides to this coin. Prior to the decline, pension funds and margin exposure were at their highest levels ever. The small investor was leveraged to the hilt, trying to get rich.
So the market declined, after speculation hit a feverish pitch. REITs are off by almost 20% in recent weeks and no one is talking about losses. There has to be a lot of people hurting out there who will take the first bounce to liquidate. I do not think we are setting up for another “V-shaped” recovery. I was going to buy some REITs, but have changed my mind after thinking it through.
Also, I was going to put some money to work today, ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report. I am not so sure about that anymore. If the numbers are good, interest rates will rip higher and the market will get crushed. Again.
Since 1993, the SPY has traded lower 7 times in June. The average decline is 4.13%. Month to date, we’re down merely 1.3%. I will feel much better about buying this dip only after the SPY is down more than 4%.
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YOU’RE THE MAN NOW, DOG!
I agree with you, that we will not see any v-shape rebounds. Partly due to overhead supply that you mention, and also because of seasonality. The summer will be consolidation for the past 6 months.
But I do not think rates will soar. Don’t forget the intention of the beard…
Agreed. But the perception that rates could rise will make stocks dip.
After the market dips, the Fed will say “hey,we are here forever,” causing rates to drop again and stocks rise.
This story repeats itself over and over. But we have to deal with the short term now.
So tired of you people gargling Bernanke’s balls like he’s some sort of demi-god. The beard certainly doesn’t control yields in JGBs. He control policies which create horrific personal and corporate climates. He can step up purchases of bonds but eventually he will lose control over the entire bond complex much like Abe is about to do.
Should read He DOESN’T control policies
Sure eventually. But his power issue only works one way. He can elect to make the real money supply as big as he likes – he just can’t unwind it.
As long as prices are low, he can keep pressing rates indefinitely. It’s when something comes along to challenge his power from the other angle that he gets beat down.
Difference between this dip and last 3 is seasonality and the fact that were up almost 20% before. No one wants to give back their gains.
You are worried about an additional 3%. Time to get your estrogen checked.
3% in the SPY can mean 10% for the average stock.
you are a novice.
WETF get some
You are missing out on today’s rally.
No I am not.
We need honest to goodness fear before I’ll buy anything. I don’t smell fear yet. The odour of bullshit is still heavy in the air.
Yes. There is actually a lot more room for the REIT’s to fall. There is still 2008 retail support levels for them to hit if rates rip higher. I’m sitting on the sidelines right now on them. Your instincts have served you well. Stick with them.
I just threw MARC FABER on the ground. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pt4CNxlcRRU
damn wrong link, here is the real one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAYL5H46QnQ
WTF….Southern Europe Bond Yields Spiking, Markets Selling off and the Fucking Euro and Yen are in full rally mode like they are on Super Cocaine. Yes POMO today was twice the daily size, but this is Stupid Crazy…
Not sure why the Freefall???? Forex Kong and Chess are happy, but this is sooooo illogical to go into those currencies because their markets should fall faster then ours…and if NFP is good/ok we are going to really have a wild swing.
“Logical” is something you do after you’ve gotten out of the yen…
That Yen is Crazy.
stocks/indices finding more wiggle room on downside = sell rips to resistance. tough ain’t it, when we’ve literally been conditioned to basically not do that.
“But there is two sides to this coin.”
{cold shiver runs down Munch’s spine}
sell in may… still intact. late spring?
I’m sorry, this is just too funny. 7 months ago, those of us on iBC were way ahead of this epic rally.
Men and women were baffled. “No way that happens.”
So where are we now? Because so many people made so much money on a rally they didn’t largely see coming, site traffic was low for months and people are flinging ridicule at anyone who doesn’t blindly believe this can continue…
Time to laugh all the way to the bank
Waiting for the DOW to get below 10,000 (again).
‘Till then….I’ll just be trading individual stocks with about 20% of my assets.
Bottom is in bitches!
Ladies and Gentlemen,
there is no un-doing this. rates are not going higher.
However, the only logical way out is to crash the system. Start a new currency. Bitcoin tried, lol.
Bankers will bank. Printers gonna print.
Regards
Chuck Bennett
Have prostitutes begun accepting bitcoins yet?
I would not know.
However, one girl tried to pay me in weed before.
regards,
Chuck Bennett