iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,474 Blog Posts

What This Market Needs is Some Really Bad News

On Friday, I expect the jobs report to come in strong, which might lend to further downside action in stocks. It’s well known by anyone with a modicum of sophistication that stocks do not trade higher based upon macro-news. Instead, stocks trade higher based upon the Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO)–spearheaded by Benjamin Bernanke.

Basically, if you believe the economy is in the tank, you should go out and buy short dated calls on the market, for it will trade frantically higher on a worse than expected report. If, however, the report is good, prepare to have your testicles shaved.

Bad economy= more POMO.

I like WETF, RAS, BX, APO, HOV, USG and of course IMMR. FRO is good too, but not my top choice at the moment.

Let’s put the correction aside for the moment. The prevailing wisdom is the economy is in recovery and possibly booming. This is happening because housing has recovered and is booming in many parts of the country. Due to this boom, retail stores, construction materials, mortgage lenders and residential builders are leading the market. The facade is based upon this myth. If this myth is discredited, we are without facade and the Dow is 5,000 points too expensive.

So, housing should be at the top of your buy lists, as well as REITs (non-commercial), banks and mortgage lenders. Also, banks that do better with a sloping yield curve might attract idiot hedge fund dollars. Your plays are KEY, HBAN and CMA.

SPECIAL EMERGENCY ALERT FOR MEMBERS OF THE CLUB OF GENTLEMEN OF THE DISTINGUISHED VARIETAL

BEHOLD! The Impala Lifestyle
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bRSJ-dtN6g

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9 comments

  1. stophammertime

    kind sir, what is “PKMO”

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  2. TheBigSpooky

    If you feel the need to get short something, get short insurance. Since the dawn of time insurance portfolios have been the biggest culprit in the ‘reach for yield’, and there are going to be some horrendous m2m losses in their corp portfolios. There is this meme going around that rising rates are good for insurance companies – that might be true in the long term, but you first have to look past their leveraged portfolios that get marked down.

    KIE if you are too lazy to pick names.

    just my humble opinion.

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  3. fake amish

    Anyone have a Nikkei target? The rising sun is shitting the bed again.

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    • fake amish

      Nevermind. Bad quote. Apparently down around a percent.

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  4. razorsedge

    realestate.

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  5. TheBigRagu

    Housing prices continue to remain flat to lower in all price ranges except the high end. As for retail; I see nothing but plenty of empty space for rent here in NJ.

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  6. Elagabalus

    Fly,
    RE: the Impala commercial;
    Is it possible to succeed in business [read: do you play?] without playing golf?

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