Europe is down between 0.5-1%, yet our futures are barely changed. There seems to be a complacency issue with American investors. It’s almost as if we’re all mesmerized by giant steaks, unable to sell stocks because we’re too hungry. You can focus on the elections, or The Jackson Hole; but I’m only interested in one thing.
Where will stocks be one month from today?
AAPL is worth nearly $700 billion. How fucking ridiculous is that? It’s cartoon-like, frankly.
I have a few stocks under $5 that I am watching closely. Other than that, I am in box-watch mode, waiting for Federal Reserve resolution this Friday. Without a doubt, the biggest winners in a QE3 environment will be basic material stocks. However, they’ve been dead in the water. It seems to me, at least in the short term, the risk is weighted to the downside.
24 Responses to This Won’t Last Forever
As they say nothing grows forever (aapl). The next tulip mania?
This is the new Tulipmania.
I’d buy a walnut if it really brings good health… then again, I bought Kinoki pads too.
You know what it takes to sell real estate? It takes walNUTS to sell real estate!
does that mean you are considering TZA again or just sitting cash heavy?
HDGE for me.
I think it is too dangerous for the clam to QE now so i expect a drop after the crack addicts don’t get their fix. is this your thoughts as well… and why HDGE over TZA?
Now more chatter of no QE on Friday. I think Benny stays put for now.
Posted this a couple weeks ago – don’t see anything that has changed: http://kcscott.blogspot.com/2012/08/no-qe3-this-year-3-reasons-why.html
If you’re of the opinion that QE3 will be announced at FOMC in Sept. – here’s 3 reasons why it won’t happen
1. YTD the market is up 12% – this along with a slightly improved unemployment picture is the single biggest reason Uncle Ben doesn’t need to turn the printing presses on. Retail sales improved in July as well. The next two points are solid indicators this thesis is correct.
2. If QE3 was imminent Gold would be rising – It’s not. Gold has been in consolidation for almost a year and 16% off it’s Sept. 2011 high
3. The strength of the USD – If currency holders believed futher intervention was coming they would be sellinng – they’re not. Likewise if they actually believed the ECB was capable of fixing Europe you would see those dollars buying Euros – again they’re not.
The real question isn’t whether QE3 will happen or not in the fall.
It’s what happens to the equity markets when it doesn’t
AAPL is still undervalued. Just wait till iPhone 5 then China Mobile.
Maybe, maybe not so much. China consumer demand is shrinking fast and their government won’t be any help.
Tomorrow is ex-divy day for the monthlies. I think today may be propped up a tad by the long holders (NO homo).
CLF for a flyer going into the Hole!
Still channeling Al Swearingen says:
Just my fucking opinion, but my guess is no actual QE3 announced at ‘the Hole’, just a lot of ‘strong talk’ from the fukin Clam. How the cocksuckers in the media and wall St. will take that is anybody’s fuckin guess, but I’m hedged for a big fall this fall. Cocksuckers.
FLY CHECK AMD(<5$)
Is it time to put the squeeze on YELP shorts ahead of the lockup expiration and the Hole? http://static.fjcdn.com/pictures/Dont%2Bsqueeze%2Bdont%2Bsqueeze.%2BCome%2Bto%2Bmineswede.org%2Bif%2Byou%2Bre%2Bsearching_fe3aa3_4018294.jpg
YELP lockup expires tomorrow.
I would be surprised if mkt craters on no QE Friday .. just more can kicking
We don’t need no stinking QE!!!!!
Sniffing a long run play at VRNG with their pickup of patent estate from Nokia and nice odds building in their suit against GOOG.
1. Bernake announces a mortgage purchase plan as well as a student loan purchase plan on friday.
2. Retail investors, missing since 2008, chase the S&P to 1650 by purchasing stocks on back to school specials.
3. In October, Greece voluntarily decides to leave the EU. Germany refuses and war breaks out sending the S&P to 500 by the time Romney is inaugurated.
4. By February, the Fly will renounce meat and become a vegan.
5. MCP trades higher than AAPL in 3 years time.
you are an idiot