Seriously, where is the fear? There is so much that is wrong with this type of trading action; I cannot begin to describe my thought process. But being the contrarian that I am, I find myself long by 85% of my assets into the top end of the recent trading range. I am not scared, at all, since volatility has been decimated to nuts. All of the issues facing the world today have been vetted and dealt with, directly or indirectly. The point is, the market is aware; therefore, downside surprise is doubtful.
Back in 2008, Bear Sterns and Lehman collapses were the “Black Swan” events that thrusted the global economy into turmoil. Can you think of a scenario where a major bank goes under today? The economies in europe are deteriorating, but in a very methodical, almost organized, way.
For me, the downside to this market lies in the election results this November. I believe an Obama victory will equate to sharply lower prices in the near term, as the “he’s a fucking communist, Red Dawn crowd” scares America stupid into full liquidation mode.
So, in summary, until something changes, this market is likely to trade up–climbing the wall of worry without a safety harness. My bias is to be long value tech, coupled with silver and a little bit of joozy news plays, most readily discussed inside of the comfortable confines of The PPT aka my computer brain.
23 Responses to The Storm Surge Has Abated
There is TONS of fear in the market, that’s why there is no volume, Everyone is afraid to buy and every jack think the market is supposed to sell off and if it doesn’t it’s because there’s “complacency”. No. Complacency is when people are buying hand over fist and laughing at the bears. I’m not seeing any of that at all. If you don’t have any long shares to sell, you,re not complacent,.
Nope. Volume is always thin in the summer and the whole “where is the volume” argument is always a bullshit one.
Volume talks, price walks.
This is way worse than ever as far as volume goes. I can’t ever remeber not being able to trade, except for maybe 2002.
We are at a standstill….one cannot have the market plunge before the retail investors drink fully from the chalice…as they have refused to do so, our overlords have decided to simply hold their shares until further notice, or until the retail investor plays their part and buys the top.
It is a good, old-fashioned mexican standoff, right here in the US of A.
I would say an Israeli attack on Iranian nukes on Weds. 9/26/12 (Yom Kippur) at 6:00AM EST.Futures will tank and gold will go up about $150.
By the time Wall Street opens @9:30AM everything will be reversed and the market sets a new high and gold and oil collapse.
It is already coded into the tradebots.
Trader Caddy, Not if USA can help that. IMHO, Iran +6 talks setting a new date would have the reverse effect, that has a much better chance cuz low level talks have been going OK.
talks with iran prevent a war? That’s funny. So stupid it’s funny.
Obama either wants to launch one or doesn’t. If he does, his lapdog netanyahu will obey.
You dudes are freaking blind. Syria is in a civil war so now is a very opportune time to strike iran, in whatever format. Most of their retaliation will come from hezbolla and syria. Well, cross syria off the list geniuses.
Now I will give you the ultimate tip. If obama’s standing in the polls relative to romney falls and he is trailing heading into the election months, then he will launch that war to save his reelection. So you see the war with iran is definitely NOT off the table, A booga booga booga boo! I’m so scared! Markets must therefore rally and crush you.
“I would say an Israeli attack on Iranian nukes on Weds. 9/26/12″
Taking about Storm Surges being over, Tropical Storm/Hurricane Ernesto is finishing and the major Mexico Rigs are reopening. IMHO this last Friday rally was not Clams but Oil Short Squeeze which (as long as Iran keeps its sabers quiet) we should see this rally fade. For Black Swans, well if German Courts find the ESM unconstitutional that could be one, for Black Swans, most can’t see them coming.
After the last five years what else Can come but “Elizabeth here comes the big one”.Shit hits the fans, cash out lick my wounds and kick ass another day.Or Year!
Red Dawn, but instead of Commies dropping out of the sky it will be Homeland Security agents machine gunning innocent civilians. During this turmoil the Terminator comes through the time portal and tries to excecute Sarah Conner. Meanwhile, the Tea Party, under Ted Nugents command, will then rally at Lexington and “fire the shot heard around the world”. The market then rallies to 20,000 and everyone in America is like a Kuwaiti citizen with a Mercedes Benz in every garage and college for free.
This market reminds me of X-mas activity. Yawn.
SMELL THE GLOVE!!!!!!
Cat is out of the bag. Debt problems will be papered over and the standard of living is increasing for a greater number of people than we have ever seen before in history. Consumption is going up. We (stocks) are going up.
It is a secular contraction. Whatever the hell that means
Demographics here, do not point to a greater consumer
Standard of living here, more dependent on transfer payment
I wonder what volume will be like over the Labour Day holiday eh?
Thrusted…? or just thrust? As in, “…events that thrust the global economy…”
Obvious how ‘much’ the market is controlled. And no, not going down, they lose control.
I think the next big Wall st book will show how it’s ‘guided’. How much it’s guided.
Obvious someone wanted all 3 indices green today. As you watch each one creep to green.
Imho, they only increase the setup for a crash. Free market captitalism. My a$$.
Q: How did that “Obama will kill the market” work out in 2008?
A: “I’m still trying to unload all of the canned tuna I bought for the Armageddon Party on E-bay.”.
A:. “I’m short SPX from 666. Living in my car sucks, but I’m not covering.”
A:”Devil Dog! Devil Dog? Is that you pushing the shopping cart filled with trash and returnables?”
It worked exactly like that for several months. Valuations got silly so then the market rebounded.
Look at how the polls are trending. Romney the diplomacy impaired tax dodger is toast. The market began factoring in an Obama victory right around the time Mitt came back from his disastrous European vacation and it’s been going up ever since.
tax dodger? He is on record as having paid taxes.
We waited several years to see a birth certificate (one which might be fake) from a person who MIGHT have been born in another country. And it’s a requirement that the president was born here. And that was withheld.
The tax information has absolutely no implications on any presidential requirements, and there’s no reason to believe he might not have paid his bills. He’s not under any investigation by the IRS. Democrat propagandists are idiots.
But shouldn’t we examine Obama’s tax returns since on those he will have reported the proceeds from buying a “discounted” house from jailed criminal and terrorist supporter Tony Rezko? Or did he maybe not report those gains? lol…