My right hand men, ChessnWine and Ragin Cajun (happy b-day), nailed this move from the beginning, unlike me. They saw the news, got scared, obeyed their rules, and went to cash. The result: they can buy my margin liquidations, if I was unfortunate enough to have one.
My position right now is a very dangerous one: a game of chicken against the bond vigilantes, mathematics and reason, siding with the unknown hand behind the Treasury curtain. I know people like to believe it’s all about Ben and Tim, but it’s not. Those two ham and eggers are spokesmen for the US government and her interests, nothing more. Now if I was basing my positions solely on reason, mathematics and all of the other things, I’d be short stocks now.
After all, the writing is all over the wall, is it not? Deflation is sucking the life out of the global economy. High quality paper are hardly yielding anything. The US government, as fucked as it is, can borrow money for 10 years at less than 1.6%. How cool is that? The reason they are able to do that is because of bank runs. All of the money is fleeing weak balance sheets in favor of strong: German, Switzerland, Denmark, UK, even French.
What’s especially odd about this rout of Europe is the immunity of France. Last year French yields spiked because of their exposure to Italy. However, now, they are tanking. What’s changed? The only explanation: the market is trying to price in the collapse of the Euro, meaning France will not bail out anyone. We might be entering the end game in Europe, providing policy makers do nothing.
Should they do nothing?
Under a do nothing scenario, stocks will crash. Economies will grind to a halt and life as you know it will change. I am fairly certain, under a full retard scenario, the markets will close, possibly for months until shit gets figured out. They’d have to do this in order to avoid bank runs.
My advice to you: keep the majority of your net worth out of the market. It’s okay to play with stocks, since we all like to gamble. But it won’t be funny if your net worth gets halted for trading for 6 months, while you starve to death in your fucking Mcmansion. This advice applies to short sellers too. Your fantastic tailwinds will be kept away from your purse, if the markets go on holiday.
I’ve always kept ample amounts of money and coin in my personal safes, one at home, two others in safe deposit boxes. Also, be sure to keep a few months worth of food in your fucking garage, and a loaded pistol under your bed to fend off the zombie hordes.
Don’t laugh at the shit I am telling you now: be very afraid, fuck face, for the end of times is no joke.
In short, this is all tracking in accordance to the Mayan calendar, in the strictest of ways. Now that you know how the story will end, prepare for it.
BEND THE KNEE!!
Cheese actually called for long CAT about 5 weeks ago.
Who is Cheese, you little bitch?
CheesNWine your right hand man that jerks your tiny dick
How would you like me to respond to that, little troll?
What’s pathetic is your insistence to constantly come here, get humiliated, and banned, over and over again.
Go away you dog and never come back or I will beat you like my rugs.
Pink
In light of the current situation, I’d like not to ban you, in order to keep the braintrust alive here.
Quit being a dick.
Deal.
@Pink: Thanks for reading. For the record, I never issued a buy recommendation on Caterpillar two months ago. I noted the expected consolidation period at prior highs, with some selling coming in that should not be surprising. The main, multi-year level to watch is $86, which had held thus far. If we lose that on heavy selling volume, the overall uptrend from 2009 becomes suspect.
No deal.
Cheese…Chess….what’s the difference right?
Extra e’s and s’es?
The cold winds are rising…
(no Stannis Baratheon)
Yes, the winter is coming.
Yea, we’re F*cked. Big time.
Naw dude. EU consolidation will be even more fierce, to be able to weather the planned currency crisis. Expect a gradual lowering of the standard of living. If there was going to be a market crash, they would have already done it.
no crash.sideways forever.
This is so easy to cure, with ZERO downside: Print the shit out of every currency like it was lottery tickets, and flood the streets with it.
They should do it. The question you have to ask yourself, as scary as it is: Do they want it to end, in order to grab control?
They want it. How can they get around the $700 trill in derivatives that they racked up. They screwed up, they know it and there is only one out.
Wow, that’s some blue blazer shit for sure.
Pink does have a point below, how do clear the deck of all the derivatives.
Maybe we just issue new currency at some really fucked up ratio and wipe the slate clean CTRL-ALT-DEL.
When this crisis first hit back in 08-09, I had a nagging suspicion that one Sunday 60 Minutes would be preempted and Obama would come on TV and declare a bank holiday to sort the shit out.
If they wanted to end it, they never would have created credit default swaps that equal the planet’s wealth 10 times over, and then crash that derivatives market intentionally… then never write off the bad debt and use it to slowly crash currencies and lower standards if living across multiple countries. All of this shit is planned. The “tell” is that none of the CDS debt was written off the moment it all crashed.
Ha, you said “Ham ‘n Egger”… i’ve been using that phrase since middle school. It means someone who doesn’t matter. Lately though, I’m phasing out Ham ‘n Egger and using “Snaildart”.
Enjoy!
They just unearthed more calenders at Mayan headquarters. These ones have pics of men on them…looks like they FKD themselves into extinction.
hmmm… apparantly we learned nothing, once again
Oh, and I forgot to tell you… just ditch all your pathetic investments and shove your remaining pittance in IMUC. That biotech is going places, I shit you not.
You cannot be serious.
No, not really, but your emotional trading seems to have about as much chance of succeeding as a low priced biotech.
You think this is bad….2014 – 2018 is gonna make your head spin.
How boss was that last episode of game of thrones? A lot has been left out from the books, but that was good tv.
agreud
This is the part where we bailout Europe
Somebody has to. They obviously have no idea what they’re doing.
How depressing.
Why hasn’t the Bank of Japan acted yet? I have to go check if they are tonight…its about time for them.
they are bringing out their zeros
45 minutes ago, right on time… clam analysis is much easier then supply and demand, fwiw, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/01/us-japan-economy-azumi-idUSBRE85003L20120601
Nymph, you are on it, as always. Most posters here have no idea of the global reach of your analysis. I, for one, appreciate it.
Thank You Hammer. True most see me as just crazy, lol, but as Fly pointed out, (when brent was hitting its top), I may be crazy like a fox…yet most see me as just crazy. Thank you…hey ouch to those Markit PMI’s so far.
Fuck the EU. The Chinese can’t pay their bills. Does OPEC continue to lower the cost of a Bbl so they can afford oil to run their cities, or do the ChiComs print funny money, which in reality they can’t do. In this scenario China/Russia/EU will go back to the thirties. The USA will then have to take the moth balls off of our old factories and make shit for ourselves. WMT can then proudly display the MADE IN AMERICA sticker.
Naw dude. The US already has plans to be a services economy, solely and nothing more. Read the central banker documentation.
This is close to the bottom man! Just because Yelp is in the toilet, don’t go run for the hills just yet. My argument remains Germany is playing chicken with the fuck face socialists. Do you really think its in their best interests to let those E class Mercedes retail for 78,000 USD instead of the 52,000 they sell for now?? Greece and Euro bonds are a drop in the bucket compared to the concussion their exports will take if they go back to the D Mark!!!! 54% of S+P 500 stocks are yielding higher than the 10 year bond!! Financials were up today.
Fear Not. When You Are All Broke – We All Win!
Best Regards,
The Bilderbergers
You mean the Commitee of 300.
Nice DJ in Distress Grav Gravestone.
Somewhat perplexed, my Island located somewhere between Nova Scotia and Norway didn’t qualify B.R.A. this year, I’m still looking for further capital infusion: http://www.infowars.com/bilderberg-2012-the-official-list-of-participants/
Herr Fly……One thing should have been inserted somewhere in the following your statement…..probably immediately after the sentence ending with the word “change”. I have taken the liberty of doing so parenthetically
Under a do nothing scenario, stocks will crash. Economies will grind to a halt and life as you know it will change…. (0bama will declare gay martial law and cancel the November elections)… I am fairly certain, under a full retard scenario, the markets will close, possibly for months until shit gets figured out. They’d have to do this in order to avoid bank runs.
Carry on my good man. You write well when under duress.
The Fed better get its act together soon, or the public is going to start catching a sniff.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/big-reset-2012-and-2013-will-usher-end-scariest-presentation-ever
What the fuck you left out gold coins!! Better have those handy those safety deposit boxes will be clooooosed so fast you wont be getting anything out and be forced to scrounge for food ya bastard.
I said coin.
A game.
So it’s MadMax II and I go to a farmer and say “I’ll give you a gold piece for a truck load of food”. The farmer will laugh and say “I’ll give you a truck load of food for a set of tires for my combine and you can take your gold and shove it”
The farmer will blow your head of with both barrels before you get a yard on his property. Then he will pocket your gold and use you as fertilizer.
Actually the farmer may need booze, medicine, engine parts or wimmin and will therefore allow you on his property to see what your barter is.
Right-fuckin’-eh. He ain’t going to be pushign 500 lbs of hay to the market to barter that shit for whiskey every day. He wants gold and silver coins for the convenience. And what the fuck, those coins will be going up in value the entire time.
Haha, “He ain’t going to be pushign 500 lbs of hay to the market to barter that shit for whiskey every day.” Visual (No Barney).
How advisable is it to have any sizable amount of coin stashed in a bank rather than ones mattress? Should it all come unwound that is…I remember my grandmother telling about how her dad lost everything he had when the bank he had his deposits in failed during the First Great Depression of the 1930’s Why would it be any different with the second Great Depression of the 20teens?
Had stepped back from trading for a while, got back into it recently and have been visiting IBC regularly for the past couple of months.
Commentary and posting has been great all the way around. Really enjoying it and appreciating the insight. Just wanted to say thanks.
Am thinking oil might be in a housing type correction and overall feeling optimistic about things, but who the H knows the future?
Hopefully the world will be fixed by the time my kids get out of college.
Hang tough and stay thirsty
Referencing a shitty beer in your post is not trendy. It’s simply referencing a shitty beer. Maybe mention NY’s Southern Tier brewery or something, instead. Something worthy.
XX is definitely shitty beer….
Because this time money in the bank is insured, you tard. FDIC was brought on exactly for that reason.
If you are talking to me DnB, just where pray tell is the FDIC going to get the money to honor all the claims when the banks fail? And what amount does the F’nDIC cover? Hmmm? Rather paltry I would say if a person has 7 or 8 figures stashed in investment accounts. Yesiree that $200K will tide you over just nice for a day or two when a loaf of bread costs a weeks wages.
Seriously? Where is the FDIC going to get the money? Last time i checked the federal govt. issued currency. They’ll get it from the federal govt.
You make a good case for owning precious metals.
It’s austerity that is to blame. You fucking Tea Party nazis have it all wrong, cutting into recession. Makes no sense. Now you see what you’ve done!!!?
Thnx Jake!
You mean the intentionally-fabricated Tea Party? The grassroots Libertarian Party always had it right. DIfferent party.
Fly,
Does your friend “The Devil” have a blog or Twitter handle?
Thanks
I doubt Devil Dog would want his I.P. address scattered about said internets in fear Jack-booted G-men would crash down his rabbit hole dumping his pails of stored oats,water and seizing his gold coinage
No
Yes we have seen major cream taken from the top but shitting yourself scared does not make sense. Oil is still 86.15 not 30 the snp is still approx 1300 not 666. What pissed me off is that we haven’t had that panic capitulation after 3 plus weeks of grind down selling. Let’s get the fuck on w it already so we can rally a bit at some point. Panic!
right on. people have been conditioned to “hang in there”.
my gut tells me you almost have to turn one generation off of equities, then we’ll get the sustained run. Question is at what level do they say fuck it and load up on US TSY only to get fucked again,
The solutions are simple. Spend recklessly. Leverage up. Ban Big Soda. Problems solved. The Greater Fools are the Kulaks and Bourgeoisie that live within their means and pay their bills with their own money. Liquidate them all.
Signed,
The Ghost of Joe Stalin’s Mustache
Does Gravestone have a newsletter? Where can I sign up?
I really don’t get your rant. Its like your yelling fire in a crowded theater. So what did we learn from your rant? Nothing!!
wtf are you crying about? Senor Fly is above you small pleb waiting to pirate your shit. like a gentleman of course.
Why must you “get something” out of every post? Do you ever just read something for the sake of stimulating ideas?
Agree
Dear Fly – you may ‘ban’ me for this, and if so, whatever, b/c I’m nearing the 47.50 cutoff anyways. But I’ve read/followed you for 10+ years, since near the beginning, I’ve enjoyed my time, my investments, and the ride we’ve enjoyed.
But dear Sir (if I may), you’ve lost your touch, not b/c of the stocks you’ve chosen. You nailed YELP at the exact right time, you should’ve taken some off @32, like a PRUDENT money mgr. You invited us along, and damn you nailed it. Now you whine, and Facefuck, blah, blah, blah.
My point, the reason you’ve lost it, is simply this new website & your attempt to monetize every blog we post, every response, every click. You have become what you promote. Why does YELP suck, b/c it does.
Rajun, amazing stock picker, Chess, amazing trader. They’ve informed and guided me.
But with the new format, I missed the 2 valuable guys you’ve left behind – Bleier & JakeGint. I now have to click on their names to see if they’ve posted, b/c your new website promotes QUANTITY over QUALITY. Congrats Sir, your 2 most valuable assets, have now been regulated to obscurity. It’s exactly like FB, which you despise, in which ppl who tell us they’re ordering a BigMac in the drive thru get more credo than the ppl who REALLY have info to share.
Congrats FLy on the new website, Cramer would be proud (jealous). You’ve lost a loyal follower, you’re off your game. Everyone know QE is coming – what if, what if, what if …….. we sell that news.
Who cares what i have to say – i’m just an old guy. Just a follower from the beginning & I say Fly ………. you are off your game. Perge.
Crock of shit.
Jake hasn’t posted in 10 days has nothing to do with me.
Bleier is free to post whenever he likes, but chooses not to.
Quit shiting on me, fucker. I am just trying to keep information fresh and relevant. I will not give away good real estate to blogs that do not update every day. If you find it hard to click onto where it says “blogs” you are a fucking idiot and should be reading me anyway.
Not crock of shit Sir. Your most valuable assets have been relegated to back burner b/c your new website rewards Quantity over Quality. Fact (look at IBC Game post). JakeGint & Bleier alone are invaluable. Hell, a year ago, you promoted relentlessly Bleier’s radio show & premium service.
You have become FB, where posts, Tweets, are more ‘available’, than quality posts.
I’m not shitting on you Fly, I’ve been a paid member, follower, I’ve been around for 10+ yrs (i’m as old as Anton). You’ve become what you bitch about & in my humble opinion, I believe it’s thrown you off your game.
Perge.
Okay, by saying “you’re off your game” is inviting me to argue with you. I’ve had thousands of paid users and millions of readers throughout the years. If you want to make a point, how about doing so without the fucking insults?
The new format is much better because it promotes freshness of information. I love Scott and Jake and everyone else, but they do not blog often.
Why?
No idea. Too busy with life I suppose.
I knew the format would piss some people off, that’s fine. But don’t blame me for their lack of activity.
In summary:
I am off my game because YELP sucks and the new format allows the hard workers who contribute to this site every day have a voice.
We publish over 120 articles daily, some gratuitous, others detailed analysis. However, 99% of what is posted is informative.
Now if you absolutely love Jake and Scott, why not click on their blogs?
See, you aren’t trying to offer me advice. Instead, you’re just being a dick.
Keep my name out of your mouth, kennyg.
Your clock is ticking
Yours is not.
You old fucker betta’ get your wills and testaments prepared as HOBOma’s Death Squads hunt your taxable estate’s down – my Dieu.
J/k.
God Fly,
I love your comebacks they crack me the fuck up
” If you find it hard to click onto where it says “blogs” you are a fucking idiot and should be reading me anyway.”
hahahahhaha
Boss,
it is standard yearly seasonality.. easy to predict, but requires a lot of discipline to act upon.
Here it is – this is 3rd year of perfect seasonality pattern on the row:
http://ibankcoin.com/partridge/2012/04/03/april/
We are down less than 10% YTD.
We have to go down another 2000 points on the DOW to reach near the 52 week lows.
All this fear is making me slightly bullish!
The fiends have gagged a generation of pacified fools
Bound by our greed a nation enslaved as corporate tools.
Arise and raze the legacy of their lies
To realize that this in itself is an ascension
Towards the day we revolt.
As the seeds you’ve cast away take hold
War will be born.
Rejoice, the age of the fall has begun
We’ll dance as the palaces burn.
A shot gun blast into the face of deceit
You’ll gain your just reward.
We’ll not rest until the purge is complete
You will reap what you’ve sown.
My redemption lies in your demise.
In such a world as this does one dare to think for himself?
The paradox of power and peace will destroy itself
To know the truth and live in fear of no man.
To realize that this in itself is an ascension
Toward the day we revolt.
As the seeds you’ve cast away take hold
War will be born.
Rejoice, the age of the fall has begun
We’ll dance as the palaces burn.
My redemption lies in your demise.
Rejoice, the age of the fall has begun.
We’ll dance as the palaces burn.
After reading this post and Raoul Paul’s The End Game –
how many people are ready to buy long dated far OTM puts on SPY??
Fucking hell, Fly. You’ve been preaching the ridiculousnous of Armaggedon scenarios. Now it’s “store food and sleep with a gun.”
Are you doing “bath salts” with Glen Beck or something? Seems like you’ve overheated your computer brain.
But you’ve been right more often than not, so off to add to guns & ammo cache tomorrow.
Always a good idea to keep
-6 months food and water on hand
-AR15 with 1000 rounds of ammo
-9MM Sig with 1000 rounds of ammo
on hand, ya know, just for a rainy day 😉
oh, and a Taurus Judge by the bed.
for the record i like your up grade fly
No reson to be all cash , if you can only go long I agree. If you can go short and long with the market then no reason to put in your money away .
Shorting is challenging though. I made great money shorting last year when Europe was really freaking out but that was easy because it was panic selling. This correction not sell off is difficult to short because it has often been whippy and inconsistent. Hard to steer
Geitner and Bernanke are in the trenches hauling water for POTUS. They are constraining the economy now, holding back the statistics, because performance does not matter now. It will matter in the Sept-Oct time frame when people are deciding who to vote for in Nov. Then they want things to look good, like we are in recovery, like the Prez’s plans and policies are taking hold. Weakness now is an easier comparison next quarter. That’s the big game.
the dollar, man. so damn bullish. dollar index looks textbook.
makes me think it’s only a matter of time before europe fires up the printing presses.
Nothing has changed, this is the same bullshit as the last 2 summers.
I’m certain stuff is pretty much made up every summer to explain the -19% and -16% drops, coincidence? sure but I doubt it.
No reason to get all bipolar, just go to cash every April and stocks every October and you’ll be fine. I put up with it because I’m an income trader but most people don’t have to.
Yup, right. Same bullshit again and again. People do fall for it though. It keeps people out of the market and in low-income CDs and funds, which guarantees the destruction of their wealth. The Marxists are having a media field day on our heads.
“After all, the writing is all over the wall, is it not? Deflation is sucking the life out of the global economy.”
As clearly illustrated by the FinViz weekly charts. Nearly all asset classes outside USD and US bonds are looking to take out last years lows. IMHO, intervention is imminent.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=w1
Although acquitted, AP’s pithy abstract of the Edwards’ facts are potent:
“Edwards used money from two wealthy campaign donors to hide his pregnant mistress while he ran for president and his wife was dying of cancer.”
I’ve gotta admit, Democrats deserve an A+ for ruining people’s lives. Especially in back butchering department.
V.King De.mandment:
Do 30lbs kickbacks and [if you don’t demand LeFly summon V.Kingship, then] I pray that their skin falls off and blood pours from their eye’s…Merry Christmas!
Today we may see the anticipated rout required in order for governments to step in and come up with some sort of global quantitative easing!
I need to see if this shit works.
What about down huhr?
Ok, first two worked. Not the second two though.
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