I like to think of myself as a fan of the stock market. Aside from managing money, I enjoy reading, listening and watching people talk about strategies, stocks and macro ideas. Over the years, the Yahoo message boards has been a place where imperious street cleaners pumped and dumped their shares on unsuspecting garbage lovers. Phrases like “TIMBERRRRR” are very popular there and all of the cretins on those boards seem to enjoy a particularly low brand of humour.
In the modern era, I consider StockTwits and Twitter to be the dominate message boards for the markets, places where investors get together and talk shit about stocks. To StockTwits credit, they curate their feed, eliminating scammers and bottom feeders from defiling their stream.
But the over-arching theme every where I look, every where I listen and read, is pessimism. The Hugh Hendrys, Great Roubinis, Meredith Whitneys are very popular indeed. And it’s not because they are very smart, which they all are. To that point, people like to hear them speak because they are bearshitters. There is a reason why Zerohedge is so popular, aside from his incredible work ethic and pristine content. Tyler is loved because he wants the world to end– and he wants that shit to happen immediately.
iBankCoin is the last bastion, the safe-haven of safe-havens, where the speech is free and the bulls roam with their balls swinging in the wind. Aside from the occasional Bleier/Caine assault on good hard working oil and gas personnel, iBC remains defiant in the face of overwhelming bearshitterness.
I just pulled up the StockTwits app and purveyed the “Trending” stocks stream and guess what I saw?
Answer: You fuckers are talking shit again. How can the markets crash when everyone is expecting it?
This new generation of investors have been tainted by the collapse of 2008. These young players really, really suck dick– because they all want to call the next crash. Everyone wants notoriety, calling out companies and combing over books, as if these C student gym rats were PWC audit partners.
Please. Relax, it’s only an Al Qaeda bomb. Clearly, you are in over your head. Stop embarrassing yourself, for the sake of your future children who will learn about your indigent legacy.
Starting out I dealt with the crashes of 1997, 1998, 2000-2002 and I still managed to get 200% long into the 2003 rally. You’re never going to make BIG money betting against stocks. That is a fact. There will be pockets of weakness, in between rip your face off rallies. To believe that “this time is different” is always a suckers bet. By betting against progress and prosperity, via clamoring for stock market disaster, that’s exactly what you are doing.
I will bet against that bubble every single time.
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Indeud…
The next bubble after the fear bubble, is rare earths
No matter if we have 50% unemployment, we still need to make hybrid cars and cell phones. And , nowadays, you can’t make either without rare earths. The average hybrid car has several POUNDS of rare earths needed to make it.
There is a nice giant rounding bottom formation appearing in the MCP weekly chart. Probably the most liquid rare earth play out there.
Meanwhile, $REE looks like it’s going back to 3
Actually, there is a giant rounding bottom on the REE weekly and monthly chart too. And the SLV chart
IF we don’t breakdown here, the bounce could be brutal
Excellent. I concur.
Bravo
nice 🙂
I am working on pressing some thick timber through some bearshitter’s troat …
for some reason I feel violent this afternoon…
Buy in May and hold till the US elections
Yes, yet another bubble created by the Fed ! LOL
actually lol, China Govt is buying up Pork..Darn Shanghai Pig Bubble.
To be more specific, the next bubble is the materials/coal/oil & gas shorts. Look at some of the major reversals in some of these names today, BTU, CNX, WG, PVA, RRC, CRK, etc. I know the bears will say “but look at the low volume”. Hey here’s a question, if the only volume out there is buy volume, who gives a shit how low it is? Maybe everyone is holding out for better prices in which case volume is low because supply is low. You bears are going to get impaled by my turbine (CPST) powered lance fueled by a combo of natural gas, oil, and coal.
I forgot to mention, my lance is made out of aluminum, steel, and silver.
Freaking genius post.
Everyone on here should be following vcutrader on twitter. The man’s a beast. I remember him posting a couple of months ago that from peak to trough, the biggest bear market drawdown is 50%. And , of course, you need to time your shorts perfectly to capture full downside. Conversely, the biggest trough to peak bull run was something like this 220%. Flat out, no doubt, way more money to be made on the long side.
vcutrader moonlights as a ninja.
It’s a fact.
VCU is good.
Aside from the occasional Bleier/Caine assault on good hard working oil and gas personnel, iBC remains defiant in the face of overwhelming bearshitterness.
Thanks for having our backs. At the next ESV shareholder meeting I will demand an ultra-deepwater 6th generation semi-submersible rig be named the “R.W. Pelican”.
(laughter) nothing but love, Po.
and it’ll be owned by OII
Uhhh, no it won’t. It will be owned by ESV and built by the fine lads at Samsung Heavy Industries – Busan, South Korea.
That is a very good post blogfather.
Nailed it Sir.
People easily forget just how freaking rare it is for the stock market to crash…even if it happens every few years. Just entertaining the idea is borderline insane. Last year we had every opportunity to crash when we were banging out repeated -4% days and it still didn’t happen. If we crash here, it has barely even begun. So unless you have a desire for pain, losing money and being wrong very often, there’s no need to get ahead of the curve.
Unless you have genius level intellect and access to every world market (Hendry) you better be long biased or you’re going to have your ass handed to you in the long run.
You’re AAPL is looking better and better here Fly. I’ll put on my tinfoil trader cap for a moment and say that was a picture perfect gap fill. Looks good for a bounce with quite favorable risk/reward.
The first whisper of an inflating sector,my
favorite scenario , is pharma / biotech .
And although PPT reveals many compelling buys it is very difficult to pull the trigger , however , I am knee deep in ILMN
and am not comfortable .
good seasonlity on that one
These fuckers are amateurs. I’m gonna start calling them out for it.
I am a popular man, indeud. I sip only the finest scotches and restrict my purchases to the highest grade treasury debt.
lol
Let me first state that I agree with the overall sentiment (get it? sentiment?) of this post.
Having said that, I think Jesse Livermore would beg to differ with this statement;
‘You’re never going to make BIG money betting against stocks. That is a fact.’
Livermore was a fucking idiot, trading railroad stocks, who eventually killed himself from losing it all, no?
Killed himself? Yes. But he did either ghost write or serve as the model for the main character (or both) of one of the greatest trading books of all time.
And railroad stocks were the technolgy stocks of his day.
Interesting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Lauriston_Livermore
Seems like he was successful when the markets crashed, but not so much otherwise. I guess that goes to Fly’s point of the long term bear’s fate. Going broke waiting for the next crash.
IRC, he was successful both as a bear and bull. His main focus was trying to catch major market swings rather than trading daily fluctuations.
Livermore messed up because he let his Ego come into the mix. He wrote all over the wall before he blew his brains out, that he was a Loser.
and what’s worse, he was re-incarnated as Ron Insana.
Oil Pits closing soon..so we saw a drop under 96 last night, and a rally up to 98 right now. I am a total Fan of the Game too. But, FWIW, I am just waiting for my coninue sell off, Eur/USD and AUD/USD on the daily multi month charts are under big key MA’s and just drifting down slower…Sandwich anyone?
Tyler doesn’t really want the world to end. He just wants to be correct about it.
are all bears sociopaths?
I really hated Livermore’s book. It was poorly written.
People tend to forget how bad the last 1/3 of the book is where he was just hired to pump and dump insider shares.
In 2008, I was at a LA Traders Expo, I was sitting with Gartman and he asked me to watch his stuff when he spoke. He was reading it at that time, funny, you would have thought he read it years ago..I wasn’t a fan of his book either, Soros I love, Livermore..nope.
This blog post today is the best I have read since becoming a subscriber a good while back. Fly’s comments about the Yahoo message boards is spot on if slight understated in criticism. Yahoo boards are disgusting! Today’s commenters, in this writer’s opinion, have responded to Fly in unusually dignified, businesslike, serious and thoughtful content. Would every day follow in these footsteps. Congratulations all!
When people are going bank0– and they are maybe 1.5 years away from filing— they never imagine they are going to end up going banko. They are still applying for additional Visa cards and shit, to string it on out– and they think everything is fine.
Nice 2 day gains for me
Short into friday. Added for election chaos hopes. Covered at open
See, shorts aren’t ALWAYS wrong…
Yeah, they’re ALWAYS right – after the fact.
LOL, there’s a bubble in Devil Dogs. That video of Devil Dog you posted last week was hilarious, Fly.
Kind of sad though that so many people actually believe stuff like that, and keep watching Internet videos and reading about it, until they scare themselves half to death– over something with no basis in fact at all.
There may not be an eminent crash in the works, but one could easily make the argument that the good ol’ USA is like Japan… blown up real estate bubble, banks full of bad loans existing on government life support, an aging demographic, etc. all leading to a slow deflationary collapse of the stock market. Nikkei peaked in 1990 at 40,000, trades at 10,000 today. Sweet.
I quit reading the Yahoo boards when it became obvious that there were two types of posters. Chearleaders on the company payroll and folks that got passed up for promotion or fired.
Case in point:
Post: HAL, what a shit ass company run by a weasel accountant. It will go nowhere.
Post Reply: You’re wrong! HAL is the leading, vertically integrated oil services company that has thousands of employes worldwide with contracts extending out several years. What a great company!
I only find myself at zerohedge after not listening to Dr. Fly, or more precisely, after coming to the erroneous conclusion that Senor Tropicana may be mistaken “just this once”
Nothing more than a stubborn attempt to find news that may justify my “grey goose and greed induced” purchase of a triple leveraged short vehicle. Brilliant post as always.
Yahoo boards are worthless pieces of crap, from a crap company. They were good once upon a time, but Yahoo being the crap company it is, allowed them to degenerate to the worthless degenerates who inhabit that space. It could have been a great franchise for a great company, but Yahoo fails on all counts.