THE UNDERGROUND CORRECTION THAT’S NOT BEING TELEVISED

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Anyone who is in this market knows the pitfalls of the current banana run. In recent weeks, many stocks have been taken to the proverbial woodshed and beaten like bag pigs (I presume ill-humored pigs are beaten by their owners down in the deep south).

Using The PPT to screen for stocks down 10% or more over the past month, 619 names listed. Let me explain that to you in layman’s terms: about 17% of the stocks listed inside The PPT database have undergone a 10%+ correction over the past month. Either this is the buying opportunity that I’ve been waiting for, or the hammer of certain death, destruction and homosexuality is about to befall those who are long equities.

What do you think?

Nah, just kidding. No one gives a shit about what you think.

36 Responses to THE UNDERGROUND CORRECTION THAT’S NOT BEING TELEVISED

pedro says:

But the “trend” is still up!! Cramer told me so.

Great stuff, Fly. All the nice, fuzzy-sounding headlines have been published. “DOW 13,000: Highest Mark in since 2008″ “AAPL all-time highs” On and on and on. Bottom line-slowing growth, higher inflation. It’s not about whether Europe will fall into a recession–they are already in one. No more QE. No more LTRO. Shit’s about to get real.

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pedro says:

Fly, your call about this market being “rotten” a couple of weeks ago couldn’t have been more apt. That’s EXACTLY the way to describe this market. Yet the tools on CNBC would have you think it’s March 2009.

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pedro says:

Did I mention China is about to crash?

usiness activity in China’s non-manufacturing sector slowed sharply in February on waning market demand after the Spring Festival holiday, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) said Saturday.
The non-manufacturing sector’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a key economic indicator, fell to 48.4 percent last month from 52.9 percent in January, the CFLP said.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2012-03/03/content_14748065.htm

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But the HSBC non manf was actually up. HSBC Manf was actually down from flash last week, and today it is reversed from the Govt numbers. Remember Pedro that China has 2 sets of PMI numbers, the Govt one and the Markit One.

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kelkun says:

That is why I chuckle when I read that the market is in severe “need” of a correction. There are plenty of stocks correcting on their own, just not all at the same time. I imagine if you took $AAPL out of the equation, the market would have “corrected” somewhat too.

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drbigboss says:

breadth falling apart is the stereotypical characteristic of a top in the making. remembering the tech wreck top, breadth was terrible as the indexes made new highs. I stay slightly short….

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WeeBey says:

I’m in Tom DeMark’s camp where we won’t see a major correction but sector rotations. I bet we grind sideways through the spring. Stock pickers market indeud.

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Belly of the Beast says:

XPO – small cap owned by large cap funds.

Two Fidelity Funds, Fidelity Contrafund and Fidelity Advisor New Insights Fund own
shares. Hmmmmmmm.

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Whaler31 says:

The online travel companies are getting toasted by Priceline.

I see these as either, takeover targets, or seriously challenged business models.

Expedia might be the best one to look at.

I am predicting gold at $3000/ounce, ans the Dow at about the same, within the next 12 months.

This will be precipitated by information of such caliber, that it will create previously unseen reaction by the Street.

It is almost guaranteed that a short position on any of the markets, will return massive profits.

That is, only if the dollar remains standard currency of world trade, which, in my opinion, is doubtful, at best.

Good luck.

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Oliver M says:

I am predicting “Chinese Burritos” at $3000 an ounce.

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Whaler31 says:

Ollie-

Actually, I would say China is a darn good bet, at this point.

I would even call it a safe-haven bet, unless their government shuts down their markets.

Cheers.

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There is no QE bothering me right now, so we sell off like that sweet time last year. Which was so sweet until the BoE messed it all up in Oct with their QE followed by LTRO. Now with GDP up and NFP down the clam and all the other global clams are done and with China lowering GDP all I have is sweet pain for this market..esp when AAPL sells off finally.

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Whaler31 says:

There might not even be a Fed next year, let alone QE3!

Their 100 year charter is up for renewal.

What will we do if we find out their balance sheet consists of debt of trillions of monopoly printed dollars?

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OEW Weekly Update: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2012/03/03/weekend-update-334/

LT: “Our weekly chart displays our OEW count and a couple of our technical indicators. Notice the RSI displays our current uptrend is quite overbought, and the MACD is solidly over neutral and rising. These are signs of a bull market unfolding. Our OEW count suggests the market is in Cycle wave [1] of multi-generational Supercycle wave 3. Primary waves I and II have completed, of the five Primary wave bull market, and Primary wave III has been underway since the October 2011 low. With all four US major indices at new bull market highs the bull market scenario continues to be confirmed. Currently we expect this bull market to top out around the October 2007 highs, or higher, by the second half of 2013.”

http://caldaro.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/spxweekly.png

MT: “SPX has been in Minor wave 5, of this five wave uptrend, since the 1300 Minor wave 4 low at the end of January. Fibonacci relationships suggest the next level of resistance is at SPX 1381, (Minor 5 = 0.618 Minor 3). Then resistance appears at SPX 1408, (Minor 5 = Minor 1), and SPX 1432, (Minor 5 = Minor 3). Our OEW pivot cluster at 1363, 1372 and 1386 has held this market in check for the last couple of weeks. Should the market exceed the 1386 pivot, (SPX 1394), there is no pivot resistance until 1440. And, we would be likely looking at a Major wave 3 uptrend then, instead of our current Intermediate wave i uptrend. The DOW charts displays this possibility.”

http://caldaro.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/spxdaily.png

ST: “We have been counting this uptrend as Intermediate wave i of Major wave 3 since its beginning. Minor wave 1 was labeled at SPX 1267, Minor 2 at SPX 1202, Minor 3 at SPX 1333, Minor 4 at SPX 1300, and Minor wave 5 underway since then. Since Minor wave 3 was longer than Minor 1, (131 vs 108 points), Minor wave 5 can end at any length. It is currently 78 points, (1300-1378). The wave count within Minor 5 started off quite clean, but after the SPX 1354 high it has become quite choppy.

While the OEW pivot cluster has contained this market for the past couple of weeks. There is also a rising trend line which as contained this uptrend since its beginning. This is posted on the hourly chart. Should the market break through this trend line, and clear the OEW 1386 pivot, an uptrend extension to the OEW 1440 pivot is likely underway. Should the market trade below SPX 1355 a potential down trend is underway.”

http://caldaro.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/spxhourly.png

COMMODITIES:

“Bonds are currently down trending but gained 0.1% on the week. 10 YR yields are up trending but remains range bound between 1.8% and 2.1%.

Crude had a volatile week losing 2.5% after posting a new uptrend high at $110.55.

Gold made a new uptrend high on Tuesday at $1793, then dropped to $1688 the following day. For the week it had a 3.5% loss. It certainly appears to be down trending now with support between $1640 and $1680.

The USD started to rally around mid-week, is close to confirming a new uptrend, and gained 1.3% on the week. The EUR lost 1.9%, and the JPY lost 0.9%.”

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Yabollox says:

China slowing down their growth rate to 7.5%.
US hoping to grow at 2.5% rate. EU hopes to stay above the equator.

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