Credit Event Rally Time!

This market is full of oxymorons. Shall we have another?

This week there is a strong likelihood that Greece will trigger a “credit event” because they will need 66-75% of the private sector to participate in the debt swap. In the event they are unable to rob them in broad daylight, they will do so in the dark, effectively triggering CDS. Also, let’s not forget the record level of cash being parked with the ECB. If things were so “awesome and amazing” in Europe, that would not be the case.

Separately, Morgan Stanley is predicting 1% US GDP growth in Q1. What the fuck are they smoking? Don’t they see C, GM, F and GS are on fucking fire? At any rate, at 1% GDP growth, there is zero justification for a stock market rally. There will come a time when you are forced to deal with reality. I believe we are approaching such a crossroad soon.

If you come to grips with the fact that the only reason why we are up is due to “free money” out of Europe, US and China, you will understand the underlying dangers of being too long at the wrong time. Whenever the stimulus stops, so will the music–just like a terminal patient on life support.

As an aside, China took down their growth forecast to 7.5%. But that’s a fucking bullshit number anyway. Really, the local Chinese debt burden is ballooning to epic proportions, now estimated at $2.2 trillion. In other words, the Chinese are trying to “fake it before they make it.” Instead of building an economy that will last the test of time, those stupid fuckers are creating a giant bubble that will burst in their faces, just like the old Hubba Bubba commercials.

All that being said, we’ve been going higher and all of the shit I am eluding too might be misconstrued as sour grapes. Please forgive my volubility on the matter of stocks and how it disassociates from the facts. “The Fly” is merely trying to point out potential dangers, innocently, in the most unarmed way humanly possible.

Disclosure: Still long “The TZA Steed” and VXX TITS.