Risky Business

I’ve been heavily long the market going into this week’s splendor. Just two weeks ago, I was down 8% for the year, after having a 13% gain. As you read this I am up 1.5% for the day, down from 3.2% for the day, putting my year to date gains at 6-7%.

Thus far, this has been a bad year for me, despite outperforming the market.

As you can see, I’ve been adding to names today “just in case” we are in the midst of a serious melt up higher. There are a lot of people leaning short now and the needle is in their respective sides now. Should we continue higher, they will capitulate en masse. I was 95% long going into today and now I am 98%. In the big scheme of things, I’ve made little changes in my portfolio.

Your next question is “why aren’t you selling?

I intend to sell soon; but I’ve opted for a more patient approach to the current OVERBOUGHT levels. Reason being: the negative catalysts that were plaguing the markets have been eliminated, for the time being. There is a real chance the market can head back towards new highs, providing the next jobs reports is market friendly. I am being patient and fully accept the consequences of my unparalleled greed.

I bought FAS, BAC, FCX, WNR, CLF and TZA today. It’s a mixed bag of shells, but perfectly sane from a bullish point of view. The TZA is a new position and I intend to build upon it as we press the upper limits.

Investing is as much of an art, as it is an exercise in mathematical precision.

I started a new position in FCX.

Today’s early trade offered a triple fake out, where sellers accumulated at the open, only to be trashed and flushed down toilets inside of 60 minutes. Although I started a small position in TZA for my personal, I am still “all in” in managed accounts and I am heavily leveraged long in my personal.

I do think we are due for a minor correction, which is why I am somewhat cautious here. However, valuations keep me buying and long. I love CLF here, up to $106. And, of course, I think the refiners are the single best investment ideas out there right now.

Yesterday I picked up some PFCB and NXPI. I like the restaurants, especially with lower oil. And, I believe tech names have been oversold. Names like BRCM, DIOD, CY and SWKS should be bought.

This is where the shorts tap out due to max pain. This is where you can press them in names with large short positions.

Be quick, smart and don’t forget to book profits.

UPDATE: I bought FAS and BAC.

I added to my CLF position.

UPDATE: I bought WNR.

I bought TZA in my personal, for a hedge.

I took profits on TZOO and UCO.

Barring a “sell the news” reversal post successful Greek austerity vote, this trade set up was incredibly amateurish and easy. If you were betting the Greeks would deny austerity and pave the way for EU failure, you’re fucking nuts. Always remember, the ruling class wins all the time, especially when they appear to be losing badly.

The ruling class chose a path of action back in 2008. That’s the blueprint you need to follow, going forward. Quit being a lazy goat fucker, thinking history is going to repeat itself. As much as you would like this to be 2008, it’s not. This is 2011 and the BEARDED CLAM is manning the printing presses with great vigor and tenacity.

None of what I am saying is actually “good” for the world economy. However, this course of action is enough to delay default and skew investor sentiment towards inflation versus deflation. Where we end up 5 years from now is anyone’s guess. I suspect, by then, I will be a neighborhood Warlord, in charge of grain provisions and setting up barricades around my local fort.

Right now, I will be raising cash into the maelstrom of sweet austerity.

It’s tragedy, then joy. It’s tumultuous sadness, then frenzied elation.

It’s drinks on the beach, then FUCKING GAS MASK AND GOGGLES ON WHILE BROADCASTING LIVE ON CNBC.

Asshat!

I will be raising cash soon.