I’ve been heavily long the market going into this week’s splendor. Just two weeks ago, I was down 8% for the year, after having a 13% gain. As you read this I am up 1.5% for the day, down from 3.2% for the day, putting my year to date gains at 6-7%.
Thus far, this has been a bad year for me, despite outperforming the market.
As you can see, I’ve been adding to names today “just in case” we are in the midst of a serious melt up higher. There are a lot of people leaning short now and the needle is in their respective sides now. Should we continue higher, they will capitulate en masse. I was 95% long going into today and now I am 98%. In the big scheme of things, I’ve made little changes in my portfolio.
Your next question is “why aren’t you selling?
I intend to sell soon; but I’ve opted for a more patient approach to the current OVERBOUGHT levels. Reason being: the negative catalysts that were plaguing the markets have been eliminated, for the time being. There is a real chance the market can head back towards new highs, providing the next jobs reports is market friendly. I am being patient and fully accept the consequences of my unparalleled greed.
I bought FAS, BAC, FCX, WNR, CLF and TZA today. It’s a mixed bag of shells, but perfectly sane from a bullish point of view. The TZA is a new position and I intend to build upon it as we press the upper limits.
Investing is as much of an art, as it is an exercise in mathematical precision.
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Pardon my ignorance, when is the next jobs report due?
– http://online.barrons.com/public/page/barrons_econoday.html
Jobless Claims hit the tape tomorrow at 8:30 AM EST if that’s the one you’re looking for. Cheers.
=^.^=
I should have cut off a piece of my WNR today and bought back in!
Here’s my take on the next jobs report from a piker perspective:
We had more than 350 job cuts in the City of Syracuse Schools alone.
Multiply that by the hundreds in our county schools alone.
Multiply that by the cuts in districts across the state of New York.
Multiply that by the number of cuts in each state.
Those folks will likely not get called back and have been told they can file for unemployment June 30.
So, this upcoming jobs report may be fine but I’m thinking there’s trouble down the road.
We’re still in bizarro world where I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market rally on a bad jobs number as the Fed is clearly determined to see that the system remains liquid at all cost (see QE 2.5).
what do you think about met coal stocks atm?
Depends if they start shooting Greek civilians or not.
It’s apparent the market looks like it wants to continue going higher here and shorts running to cover will put some wind behind that and I also agree that some of the negative issues that were weighing on the market have been squelched for the time being. The one other thing that makes me a little nervous here is the ‘end of QE2, no QE3’ BS that many are touting that will strangle liquidity and thus crush the markets. In anticipation of this, many had expected the market to drop, and it did for a while, but come July, will asset values take the elevator down fast as liquidity dries up?
The question about QE2 ending is how are we going to finance this lavish lifesyle the USA lives? If we don’t buy our own debt (figure that out) somebody else has to do it. If they won’t buy it, rates will go higher, which should oddly enough strengthen the dollar and also make bonds more attractive relative to equities.
I was referring to the effect of the end of QE2 on equities. Of course we will buy our own debt because QE3 will come for certain but in the immediate term, I would have expected that the fear of QE2 ending with no QE3 in sight would have a bad effect on the equities market but it has not. Perhaps the market is waiting for July 1???
Bravo, I’m pretty sure he’s referring to the June jobs report, which actually does not come out until a week from Friday, on July 8.
FLy, sounds like we’re oddly aligned except for the fact that I’m not willing to roll the dice with the market this high. If it consolidates right I would consider one more shot on the long side for the final capitulation; otherwise it’s sit and wait to see if/how/when it breaks back down.
Given the “delay” in the jobs report, we could get the perfect setup to melt higher for another week and then WHAM, the market gets the crap kicked out of it.
Loving the action today in my XIV shares and SLV calls, this bull is just getting started.
” I am being patient and fully accept the consequences of my unparalleled greed”
THIS is a more mature comment than almost anyone can conceive…
Fly- There is apparently another austerity vote coming, do you think your TZA position is sufficient if it fails? Moreover, this is no longer just a financial disaster, it could turn into a political and military disaster, which could lead to the stock market taking the proverbial elevator down, fast. No thanks, I’m selling into this rally.
I predict a right shoulder in the making here. I did not say that the head and shoulders pattern will succeed like 2007, or if it will be a failed breakout like 2010 or 2009. Good set up approaching though. I have to think the sovereign debt crisis approaching and the derivatives tied to it is in danger, as is the fed’s ability to continue buying stock while keeping bond rates low. Something has got to give soon.
What the hell is going on with MA & V?
Something doesn’t seem right here. Definitely leaning towards TZA
20c cap on swipe
Swipe Fees Reprieve: Visa, MasterCard Shares Soar
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/06/29/swipe-fees-reprieve-visa-mastercard-shares-soar/?mod=yahoo_hs
Both just found the needed loophole for Dodd – Frank.
“Sir Fly” … you still Long DHI ?
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sold a few days ago
Huzzahs, Sir.
Carry on…
This has GOT to be tremendously bullish for silver.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mint-start-selling-2011-american-eagle-silver-coins-75-premium-paper-senators-propose-elimin
Silver Eagles limited to 100 per household, selling for $60/ounce. “Shizer” -Max Keiser.
Don’t see why its bullish. The cap gains thing will never pass and the 100 per household limit is the same lame line you see for those “collector” medallions crap you always see advertised. “Limit of ten per household”, or “all last names beginning with letters A-N call today, N-Z call tomorrow… “we can’t do this all day” All BS.
You have to be nuts to buy your fizzical silver in collector coins like that. You want your fizzical in 100 oz bars, as they are the easiest to transport, and are the most fungible at market.
Not sure what the current spread on those above market is… there’s your story, though, if it’s widened.
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I agree with that. But the Janitor at your kid’s school likely doesn’t, and for them to suddenly boost the premium year over year by that much, in favour of people who can skip the premium ala bigger chunks, borders on discrimination. 100 piece limit is understandable. Monstrous premium just hurts the little guy. I guess that means Canadian Maple leafs will have a surge in “value” soon too.
Nah, you don’t have to buy mint stuff. You can get shitty oz’ers for much closer to bullion value too.
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crack spreads were on firrrrrre today
so if u sell a candy bar for 1dollar 20c goes to v,ma, this will hurt the small retailer.
If you’re buying candy bars on a credit card you need to be shot.
Fly, I assume you dumped FSII that laggard?
Regretting I didn’t buy X weekly calls yesterday when I was pondering them. V weekly calls went nuts today too. Each one would have produced >4000% gains OVERNIGHT. Amazing little securities they are.
Scott posted the X trade earlier this week and vcutrader was loading up at the lows as well.
Look at copper, last time we got a big move like that, we also got a lousy pullback, too.
Makes me wonder I guess what the catalyst is to send it higher.
Douche Bank upgraded X and AKS today on increased demand, valuation, and pricing of steel. Oddly they now think steel prices have reached a bottom and as a result have increased ’11 and ’12 projections for hot-rolled steel by 1%, but kept ’12 projects 10% lower than ’11. So they are expecting higher prices in ’11 and then a dropoff in ’12?? Yea….
A while ago AKS said they were going to increase prices as a result of higher input costs, which is why I got CLF. I maintain I like the earlier part of the cycle better than the end right now.
I wanted to buy X weekly calls because it looked like they would bounce, I just didn’t expect it to go that far.
Surprised there wasn’t a shout out to the dicksuckers hating on AGQ. Up 6% today.
Lightly peppered and heavily salted one-inch thick ribeyes for all at my house tonight.
6% is a slow day for AGQ, friend.
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I understand your point, but I’m not sure if this rally is anything more than the end-of-quarter push and markup…in order to keep Joe Sixpack from panicking when he sees his quarterly statement.
If it collapses tomorrow we’ll know.
Just a reminder that when you wake up to the newscaster wearing googles and a gas mask, you may want to consider buying some stocks before you head down to the bomb shelter.