Prepare For the Best Jobs Report in the History of America

Coming this Friday, in the midst of nuclear catastrophes and war, the February employment data will be released. Based upon on the laws of BARACKenomics, I expect to see nothing less than fantasy. With the Federal reserve busy pumping away at the U.S. economy, raping the dollar of its dignity, I sense a surprise on the horizon.

What this country needs is hope, then change, then lobster rolls with warm butter lathered sloppily into American faces. We need to make believe shit is good. Therefore, we need to report a falsified jobs report, in order to placate those pesky republicans who want to fuck with earmarks. The democrats must fend off their detractors by disseminating positive news, in support of the current regime. This has been done before. Please study the rise of the Bolshevik Party. Thanks.

As you well know, the Obama administration is giving war a chance, for humanitarian reasons. Do not be fooled by his dumbo-like ears: he is a great man. He is saving countless of innocent and helpless armed rebels from certain demise. Moreover, he is punishing an evil dictator, who hogs light sweet crude, and doesn’t share that shit with others.

The TIME IS NOW, FUCKERS, for falsified economic reports to be distributed ad hoc. Are you man enough to play the game? Will you be there when the clowns nose is punched in and only jelly squirts out?

Disclosure: Long MWW, considering KFRC, KFY and ASGN.

I am on the road now, so I am, most unfortunately, posting from my iPhone.

I sold TER today, which was a 10% position. If you possessed the ability to read, you’d know that today’s buys were done exclusively in my personal account. As of the close, managed accounts are 20% cash.

I didn’t like the action. It had a lot of characteristics of a toppy market. However, the numbers on Friday can change things quickly. I’m thinking better than expected is in the cards.

I will continue to add to airlines, as a hedge against my refiners.

I bought MWW and DAL, both in my personal account.

Disclaimer: If you buy the above stocks because of this post, Al Qaeda will take you hostage and transport you to Pakistan. And you may lose money.

Quick flash for you unemployed day traders: I know this market is overbought, which is why I sold out of TER. However, I am now wrestling with the idea that today’s entry point may or may not be advantageous, considering we have jobs numbers on Friday.

To buy or not to buy is that question. Yes, indeud.

So you know, the cash is burning holes in my pockets.

More on this later.

I sold out of my TER position.

Tis the season to be long oil and gas stocks. Just like March was for refiners, April will be the month for a wide range of oil and gas stocks. Get your fucking grease on.

I will be posting the April seasonality report inside of The PPT tomorrow. As you know, seasonality stats are available on demand for club members. Having said that, I realize many of you need shit served on silver platters, else you will not know how to eat shit on your own. That might sound disgusting because it is.

Sorry, I get distracted. The point is, oil and gas stocks typically do well during April. I will reserve my picks for a later date.

Going into Friday’s jobs report, I like MWW. They have been operating like drunken Mexicans flying airplanes for the better part of 3 years. However, should we get an upside surprise in the numbers, that fucker is going higher.

By the way, a few homosexuals complained about me to the overlords at Stocktwits, saying “how dare you put that beast of a man on the recommend list. He says mean things about us homos.” Look, just because I say “homo-hammer” and “faggot” doesn’t mean I hate gays. “The Fly” couldn’t care less about your sexuality, so take the dicks out of your mouth and ears and man up a little, no?

Top picks: OXY, WNR

Everything was up but my airlines, which is entirely acceptable because they are hedges against my refiners. I was up again and my gains are about 12%.

In my hyper cocaine personal account, I am up 22%, mainly long WNR—leveraged to the max. I am telling you exactly what I am doing in that account because I am going to show you something spectacular. You surf the web, in search for counsel. Most have a good stories and a neatly groomed mustaches, but little personal success, zero substance. Like they say: “those who choose to teach are real dicksuckers in real life.”

“The Fly” is a man of great circumstance.

If I wanted to, I could burn this website down to the ground, fire all of my clients and live out the rest of my days in the mountainous regions of Puma Punku. How many of you goat fuckers can say that about yourselves?

“The Fly” conquers all and plants his banner into the faces of everyone, friend or foe.

Top picks: WNR, VLO, X, OXY

Back from boredom, I added to X.

Okay, it’s official: the market is really, really starting to bore me. The monotony of the market is grinding away at my fucking soul. It’s fun making money. But then it gets to a point like “where am I going with this?” I suppose you chart chompers have it easy, not having to ever use your brains for anything. In many regards, you are like dogs fetching bones.

Go find me another chart, boy!

No, but seriously, I need to unwind a little. I don’t want to slap people with hot slices of pizza or even cold slabs of ham anymore. Life is just not the same, when inflicting random acts of violence against people isn’t exciting.

I own X, OXY, airlines, refiners, blah, blah, blah. Maybe if I lost a million or two today, that might get me interested, like “hmmm, that was really fucked up” sort of way. The website keeps me busy, especially my new news idea. However, that gets repetitive too. Post a bunch of ideas, read comments from people halfway mentally retarded, laugh at said people–ban a few for life.

One thing that makes me laugh is the secret hatred so many third rate bloggers have for me. Really? I don’t give a fuck about you, not even a little. I rarely talk about other bloggers because it’s none of my business. People have to make their own life choices and I am not one to judge whether they are right or wrong.

I piss on your heads from my balcony.

Anyway, I am stepping out now in search of excitement. Hopefully by the time I come back the world will be on fire and the market would have flashed crashed a few dozen times, and shit.

The last time crack spreads were this high was 2007. However, keep in mind, there wasn’t an egregiously wide Brent/WTI spread like today. So, in many respects, today’s environment is better for the refiners, providing the whole house of cards thingy holds together. At any rate, one of the things I like to do is look at maximum earnings power during peak cycles. Looking back in time, when a certain industry is at its peak, can really tell you a lot—providing you believe history is about to repeat itself.

So, I gathered and combined all the 2007 EPS numbers for VLO, WNR, HOC, FTO, ALJ, DK and TSO. I did the same thing with share prices and derived at a group PE.

2007 combined share price (refiners): $280.53
-combined EPS: $28.43
-combined PE: 9.86

Now, here comes the tricky part. If history is really about to repeat itself, the current analyst estimates are garbage, utterly useless when trying to determine a fair price. So, to placate my inner demons, I took the high end estimates for 2012, even though they may prove to be too conservative. Here are the results.

Combined current share price: $185.73
-high end estimates, 2012: $25.22
-current FPE: 7.36

Naturally, there is much more to the value of a stock than EPS. One needs to consider macro events, as well as buyout premiums. However, one thing is for certain: if current spreads sustain for a lengthy period of time, analyst estimates are going way the fuck up, in order to catch up with reality. Based upon past history, the refiners are at least 30% undervalued, at current prices—in my opinion of course.