Zero Reasons to Be Long
Bear with me for a moment. To be optimistic is constructive and desirable for all successful, well rounded people. I get it. However, on occasion, you need to take a step back and look at the big picture for a moment.
With regards to Europe: I contend, it’s impossible for Germany to accept any terms that lead to a pan-European bailout. No German politician can survive the backlash at home. Moreover, the numbers do not work. Italian 10 yr bonds are north of 5.9% for Christ’s sake. How the fuck do you expect the IMF or the ECB to fund Greek, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish debt–all at the same time? I’m not being bearish for the sake of being a bear or to be different. This is not rocket science, but hard facts staring you right in the fucking face.
And yes, European QE is a non-starter.
While I am sure some savvy politician will concoct some plan to stave off the inevitable, I do know one thing for certain: the s&p will be under 1,000 inside of 6 months. It’s never keen to bet against stocks heading into Turkey day. But, after you stuff your fat faces, like the gluttons that you are, we are going lower–and fast. It will be quite the spectacle.
For the day, I was almost exactly flat. WNR @ 20% of assets down 7%= -1.4%. GSVC @ 5% of assets down 2.6%= -0.13%. VXX @ 20% of assets up 6.67%= +1.33%. EXH short @5% of assets down 4.64%= +.23%. And, in my personal, I am 100% long TZA. Despite the string of wins for the bulls, my current hedging strategy is successfully holding my 16% YTD gains. After this episode of selling is complete, and my research is done, I will begin allocating cash into longer term positions, all to do with my new thesis mentioned earlier today. For PPT members, I posted my raw, unedited list of stocks for your perusal.
70 Responses to Zero Reasons to Be Long
This coming from the same Fly who blogged and touted on Twitter at Dow 12,800 during the first half of 2011 saying we are going to Dow 14K
Horrible calls man come on
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Never believe anything said on Twitter, jackass. It’s the playground of misfits.
If you want my edited predictions on the markets, read my 2011 predictions:http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2010/12/30/predictions-for-2011/
And, I strongly suggest READING THE FUCKING SITE EVERYDAY, SINCE THE MARKET CHANGES, as do its prospects, ON A REAL TIME BASIS.
Oh, I’m sorry, you’re not gonna be able to do that, since you’re BANNED.
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LOLZ
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Maybe he can think of a suitable equally gay nom de plume and sign back on?
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your splashy retort wreaks of frenchiness.
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Best ban ever.
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I do remember Professor Fly saying on multiple posts that he would be shorting in the fall time. Eat your peas.
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lol – 1001 bans!
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I like UL for your food strategy, ’cause of the fat divvy, too.
And Dutch fuggers gotta eat, yes?
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The protagonist in your video choice represents bears everywhere.
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Hey Fly, on your personal, you are 100% onto TZA? That bearish ehh?
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That can change in an instant. My personal aggressive is very volatile. Play acct.
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Playa account, you mean?
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EINHORN WINNING
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100% tza in personal????
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I don’t think the bull party is over just yet, but I agree that the outlook long term is not good enough to “invest” in equities. Then again, long term, general forecasts are probably above my pay-grade.
Fly – in your personal do you *prefer* use limit or market orders to trade? Is $TZA liquid enough to throw a market order worth 500k at it and get a very good fill (That’s about .04% of avg volume)?
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You’re kidding right? TZA traded 28 million shares today.
Nothing more liquid.
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That’s what I figured on paper but I’ve learned the hard way the difference between how something ought to go in the market and how it actually plays out. The closest I’ve come to a market order is a stop loss, and those often execute in bullshit conditions which make for bullshit fills.
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where is the Nymph, I miss her already …
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Duh Jose! She’s been busy prepping Jim Cramer for Mad Money.
Nymph is also the one who throws Jim the little stuffed bulls and bears while on air.
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she works for Cramer ???
oh my Lord, this cannot be true …
she actually is Jim cramer HA
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Jose…Noooooooo, I just hung out at Stockpickr in 2007/2008. I was actually out,just playing around.Shanghai Comp is down so far tonight, but that darn eur/usd still playing around the 1.3747ish resistance/support level..have to give it time.
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Awesome!
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Fly, I think you should walk around w/ $400,000 in hand like soulja boy and make it rain for the o.w.s. cretans!
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fuck that … get quarters and make it HAIL!!!
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Agreed, but “billions” of reasons not to go short per this pomo schedule:
October 20, 2011
Outright Treasury Coupon Sales
08/15/2012 – 03/15/2013
$8.00 – $9.00 billion
October 21, 2011
Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases
11/15/2019 – 08/15/2021
$4.25 – $5.00 billion
Just don’t want anyone to get caught unaware of this since it props up the market despite fundamentals, rationale, or reason. POMO is 44 billion this month versus 14 billion last month. Compare the performance in those two months.
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Dude, we can’t POMO (no Homo) Euroland. Regardless, Euro down, Dolla’ up, stocks down.
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The European bank stocks will get crushed because their deposits will be guaranteed but not their stocks or bonds and yes, Europe will have a recession but the world won’t come to an end. The SPX is currently on roughly a $98 earnings run-rate and gets around half its earnings from overseas. If you haircut overseas earnings by 20% and call the U.S. flat (in line with the recent data), you’ve got $88 in 12-month forward earnings. If you then put a 13x to 14x on that (reasonable for a 2% 10-year) you get fair value of 1144 to 1232; i.e., right around where we are now.
Thus, I’d be neither broadly short nor broadly long here, but if you can find some companies that can grow in this environment and are relatively cheap, you can make a lot of money here because people are gonna chase growth (as it will be rare).
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You don’t see a problem with what you just wrote?
Think bigger, like gross trade versus net.
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No, I don’t see a problem. If the U.S. can grow 1% to 2% or so (and I think it can, on average) it will take care of your “gross vs. net” issue.
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Nice to see a well thought out post. Just to play the devil– what was the earnings when the spy hit 666? not to say that if you just hold long you would be OK but you wouldn’t you miss a nice ride both ways? Are you saying that you are a seller at the top of the rage?
What growth names do you see?
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2009 operating earnings were around $50. Then they fired vast numbers of people and now they can make a lot more money for any given level of revenue.
Yes, I will start shorting the SPY as a hedge at the top end of the range. My longs tend to be GARP-y microcaps. I’m currently long PZZI ($2.70 basis), PNS ($1.39 basis), MEDW ($11.30 basis) and ARCI ($4.52 basis). These positions were all put on since July, and my average hold period tends to be six months to two years (until the stocks reach what I consider to be fair value).
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Suffice to say the market will go lower than it is now. We’ve been drifting higher on the news that Europe has solved all of it’s problems, there is no double-dip and the Super Committee will miraculously cut 4T from the budget without touching entitlements or the military. But let just one of these triumvirate points be invalidated and all hell will break loose…
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Nice use of triumvirate.
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You can see 115 Division Place spray painted on the wall in the video. That’s right next to Vandervoort & Meeker Ave.
- nevermind.
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TeahouseOnTheTracks, thanks much for your patience and savvy thoughts about my SDRL question. All valid points and questions! Please see:www.seadrill.com/investor_relations/stock_information and scroll to benchmarks. Macro matters of Arctic high risk harsh environment/deep water submersible technology along with solid financing and 3 new rig contracts in the last week(2 for rigs still in the builders’ yards) take me away from RIG and others………. for now. Thanks again
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Will do … BTW, I haven’t done any research on another that you may want to take a look at sans a dividend … ORIG doing work off Africa.
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Loving the new feel to the music selections.
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I was playing the song in the background. Just watched the video… WTF?!
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A new batch of skin care products from China.
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I think the sammich coming out of his “heart” represents unrequieted love for the hipster chick whose friends (the world) don’t approve or understand the guy, but he wants the world to chomp on his sammich which probably has a big kielbasa hidden in it.
Oh yeah, the chick digs hairy apes, but she can’t admit it publicly for fear of ostracization.
or maybe they just had free halloween stuff left over from last year ….
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Or maybe its sammich eatin’ time
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Fly- CVGW could fit the new thesis. Real thin with a 300 million market cap though.
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What about the fact that we are going higher?
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Put the joint down Huggie..
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HOLY SHIT.. Greece is doomed!! The domino effect is sure to follow. When they don’t deliver this weekend, shit will be 10 fold..
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Humble pie tastes like concrete-oats with a side of humid mud.
HOW THE HELL DOES $WYNN POST MISS “EXPECTED” EARNINGS BY SIXTEEN CENTS AND HAVE INTRADAY $7 DROP AND AFTER HOURS $ 6 FLOP!???!!!
So, if I get this right, $WYNN has retired its Vegas debt structure, is profitable, due to Macau, and the share tumble $ 13.
No wine this week, time to hang the punching bag.
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I think WYNN just changed its symbol to LOSS
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worse, charlie sheen sued for trademark infringement.
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Thx for chuckle.
I’m finally kewling from non-wynning.
I know it will retrace by week’s end or next morn.
But I’m still hating the tradeoffs on this ticket-round.
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Listened to the Steve Wynn rant. Seems he doesn’t share the dirty hippie characterization of OWS that you propagate. He also seems to not give a fuck about the deficits the GOP ran up. Genius. He need to move to China with his pillow.
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… this choice of vid is somewhat disturbing !
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We go from the exquisite Natasha Khan aka. “Bat For Lashes” …
… to THIS !!!
Cheeses-K-Riest !!!
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You’re back ?
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… somewhat !
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I just saw the video and about lost my dinner of linguine and whole clams in a light tomato garlic sauce topped with fresh chopped parsley and a little fresh basil.
Back to baseball.
OH !!! BTW !!!
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GO TEXAS RANGERS !!!
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So are you long or short, Alf?
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SHORTER … THAN VERNE TROYER !!!
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More zero reasons to be long. And yes the link is from Zero Hedge but well worth the listen.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/steve-wynn-epic-anti-obama-rant-part-ii-full-audio-and-transcript
At the risk of getted ripped apart buy all the doom and gloomers, I added a little to my WNR, CVI and CLF positions today.
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No shit! You are a bull. Where have you placed your stop loss levels for CVI and CLF.
I have tried to understand it but get lost somewhere around having to sell all the high margin products at a price to cover the loss on the crap products
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7641
I haven’t been using stop losses. These were all down more than 6% at one time today, that was my target. I bought a small position. These are hopefully short term trades.
When stocks hit a low on or around October 3, just 16 days ago, these three stocks had the following gains from that low to their recent highs;
WNR 56%
CVI 52%
CLV 38%
I will not add from here unless they reach those lows again.
Steve Wynn is as full of shit as a Christmas turkey. I imagine he wants the public to gamble their money away in one of his clip joints.
People who go to Vegas (or casinos in general) are MORONS.
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… the Botox in his freakishly distorted face has apparently leaked into his cerebral cortex !!!
This dewd is unstable !!! imo
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The point of his rant was that due to the uncertainty and/or the fear of raised costs i.e. healthcare for the proposed lot across the street, that anxiety is magnified over all the small businesses across the country. How is that full of shit?
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Obama, on Jan. 21, 2009, should have rammed thru a single-payer “Medicare for All” program in a one-page bill.
That would stop all this bullshit of 35% extracted out of our health care dollar by
our “for PROFIT, not for the people” USA travesty of a health care system.
I guess you’re talking dumptrucks while I ask about apples.
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I’ve seen this video before. Bring your A-game and keep it fresh.
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One year ago there was a no swearing until Dow less than 10K pledge on this site. Funnty how things repeat.
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